When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

I'm curious as to what the appropriate action is when your local bookie makes a huge line error. A friend of mine is a local book. Several weeks back, another bookie he knows came out with a mistake on the Steelers-Broncos game, as he had Denver favored by 4 when the Steelers were 4 - 4.5 faves everywhere else. My friend places a big bet on Pittsburgh +4, and after it's accepted, he tells him he should probably look at changing the line. He then bet Denver with another local book (who had the line right) and made a nice middle.

Well I'm looking my local's sheet, and he has the O/U on the SF - Car game @ 42. This is clearly an error since it's 35.5 at most other places. Looks like he mistakenly wrote down the TB - NO o/u twice.

So what's the right play here? Do I hammer the u42 and after he accepts the bet tell him he should probably change the line? (Btw, I think it makes a lot more sense to just bet the under and not try for a middle here. If anyone disagrees I'd like to know why.) Or do I just make the bet and not say anything? And I should probably put this in tonight before someone else notices and he changes it, right?

Fwiw, he's up against me so far this year (don't ask), and I brought him a customer about six weeks back who has been his biggest donator ever (this local book is small time). Also, he never changes the lines he puts out on his sheets, which he makes on Wednesday nights. Previously, I've never seen anything more than 3 points off what he has on his sheet.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

It sounds like he set the perfect template for your correct action here.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

Umm... I'd probably just tell him he has an error if you're a big player and going to be hammering his face in for a while. He might actually appreciate the fact that you tell the truth and keep letting you rape him longer.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

Allow me to answer your question with a question:

My bookie dropped his wallet. I picked it up. It contains thousands of dollars.

Should I return it?

For what it's worth, I'm stuck for year.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

[ QUOTE ]
tell him he has an error

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed.

As Dali found out first hand, dealing with locals is a whole different story.

If you want to continue to be able to use his services, make nice. Try to become as friendly with him as possible. You want to become his best customer, helping him balance his books (assuming you're indeed sharp and will generally be on the other side of a lot of his other customers).

Build a relationship. Get to the point that he actually welcomes your action -- or at least tolerates it in some places because it helps him in others.

Is it worth picking off this one line to ruin the relationship?

-P

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

As P alluded to above with the Dali situation, it is almost always a pretty bad idea to start hammering incorrect lines from a local. Make a habit of it and you'll find yourself cut-off at best...

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

[ QUOTE ]
Allow me to answer your question with a question:

My bookie dropped his wallet. I picked it up. It contains thousands of dollars.

Should I return it?

For what it's worth, I'm stuck for year.

[/ QUOTE ]

This analogy isn't valid, IMO. It's not like he mistakenly set the o/u at 72. It's at 42. That's only 18.3% off the regular line. I highly doubt most of the people betting through him will even notice anything odd about the o/u. Also, it's not like this bet is completely risk free, even with the extra 6.5 points.

Fwiw I already have a great relationship with him. Also, as I alluded to earlier, I brought him a client that's made him more $$$ the last several weeks than anyone else ever has. And if I do decide to play it, I'm not going to bet it any bigger than my regular big bets. Actually, the more I think about it, I could put in all my plays for the weekend tomorrow morning, play this straight up, include it a parlay or 2, play dumb, and make a comment after my bets are in that the total seems kind of high. This will give him the option to correct the line, and even cancel my bets. On a scale of 1 to 10 how unethical is this?

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

[ QUOTE ]
This analogy isn't valid, IMO. It's not like he mistakenly set the o/u at 72. It's at 42.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok then, the wallet doesn't contain thousands. Just a few twenties.

[ QUOTE ]
On a scale of 1 to 10 how unethical is this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Cash me out. I'm done.

You can't put "unethical" on a 1-10 scale. Only a 0-1 scale, where:

0 = Ethical

1 = Unethical

If you're looking for forgiveness for committing an act that you know is wrong, look elsewhere.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

Only 18.3% eh? You sound like a massive square.

Thus, I believe your most +EV play is to pound the errant line, hope you hit one time, and get cut off from this book. This saves you all the $$ you would've lost in the future.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

Even if you don't want to be ethical, telling people about mistakes has bigger EV in the long run than not.