UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

UFC 78: - "VALIDATION" NEWARK, NEW JERSEY- $250 8:00 PM 32601 MICHAEL BISPING - - +215
32602 RASHAD EVANS - - -275

UFC 79: - LAS VEGAS - $250 LIMIT -8:00 PM 32551 MATT SERRA - - +280
32552 MATT HUGHES - - -350

8:00 PM 32553 WANDERLEI SILVA - - -120
32554 CHUCK LIDDELL - - -110

These are the early lines. Wanderlei Silva opened @ EV and chuck liddell -130. Just wanted to get a thread started as early as possible... I think it would be really ideal if we as a community tried to set the lines before they come out.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

Some of my thoughts...There is no value anywhere on the Bisping-Evans fight.

Same with the Serra-Hughes fight I think. If anything there might be a little bit of value on Serra but I don't see how he could possibly win this fight.

I see tons of value on Wandy. I know his last 2 fights have been rough but he was completely out-classed by Cro Cop who looked amazing. And Hendo was just a terrible match up for him. Plus he was sick with somethin and had a fever(Cant remember his illness).

Rampage was, is, and will always be a bad match up for Chuck so I dont hold that against him. But he should have found a way to beat Jardine. Jardine isn't that great, not to mention he got destroyed by Houston Alexander.

As of now Id only put money on Wandy.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

These lines haven't moved any. If Serra gets to +325 I'll place a small bet on him, but that's the only one i might get on here.

Anyone else?

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

sports interaction has the line @ +350 for Bisping ... imo I think that's a pretty safe bet ... only has to win 2 rounds or hit Evans with a hard punch to win ... safe bet I think

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

I saw Chuck/Wandy open at -110/-120 and -120/-110 at different sites. I see a lot of value on Wandy at anything under -150ish.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]
sports interaction has the line @ +350 for Bisping ... imo I think that's a pretty safe bet ... only has to win 2 rounds or hit Evans with a hard punch to win ... safe bet I think

[/ QUOTE ]

+350 is kind of nuts, but Evans is pretty similar to Hamill, except a better, more complete fighter. Without knowing how either fighter is training or how that training is going, Bisping is a pretty heavy dog.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

These lines seem mostly correct for right now. I imagine the Serra/Hughes line will jump around a bit the closer we get to fight time. In wrestling terms, Serra is being cast strongly as the face through the reality show. I have a feeling that a lot of public money is going to come in on Serra so there could be value on Hughes if the line drops below -300 or so.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]
sports interaction has the line @ +350 for Bisping ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Gotta like Bisping at that price.

What do people think the Houston Alexander line will open at? Although he comes from a great camp, Silva didn't look all that special against Drwal in London - to my mind Alexander is quicker, more powerful and more accurate in his striking. I quite want to get an over/under for the fight at 1 minute!

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
sports interaction has the line @ +350 for Bisping ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Gotta like Bisping at that price.

What do people think the Houston Alexander line will open at? Although he comes from a great camp, Silva didn't look all that special against Drwal in London - to my mind Alexander is quicker, more powerful and more accurate in his striking. I quite want to get an over/under for the fight at 1 minute!

[/ QUOTE ]


I agree, that's why I'm fairly certain Houston will come in as a favorite for this fight. I'd expect to open between -150 and -200...prob somewhere smack in the middle.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

Something like -150/-160 Alexander sounds about right.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

5dimes has Houston/Silva at -170/+130. I like Silva in this fight anyways, but I was hoping this line would open a little higher. I'm considering waiting it out to see if I can get +150 or better.

Also for the record, they have Evans/Bisping at -275/+235. That +350 line is looking nuttier and nuttier.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
sports interaction has the line @ +350 for Bisping ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Gotta like Bisping at that price.

What do people think the Houston Alexander line will open at? Although he comes from a great camp, Silva didn't look all that special against Drwal in London - to my mind Alexander is quicker, more powerful and more accurate in his striking. I quite want to get an over/under for the fight at 1 minute!

[/ QUOTE ]

damn I would've jumped in at that price.

SI: +250
5dimes: +235

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

751 Houston Alexander -135
10:00PM (EST) 752 Thiago Silva -105


u did that viscant?

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

No, I didn't put down anything yet. Like I said, I was anticipating the line moving the other way.

Did I miss something here? Houston is being heavily promoted by the UFC, with articles about him on Yahoo, even appearing in the television spots for 78. Everything impressive Silva has done has happened outside of the UFC. I don't get why this line moved in this direction. Is there an injury or a training camp problem that I missed out on? I checked all online sources after you posted that and I've come up empty.
Barring an injury or training camp problems, this kind of thing just doesn't happen to fighters the UFC is throwing it's promotional muscle behind. I really don't know what to make of this line.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

MICHAEL BISPING
MATT HUGHES
CHUCK LIDDELL
these are the winners

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79 *DELETED*
 

Post deleted by Performify

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

pokerg1,

Instead of just posting who you think will win, please explain your picks (in relation to the line would help as well).

Bisping might have some value at +350 if that line is still available, but he's a heavy dog for a reason. Wandy > Liddell if the line is still at Wandy -110 or a pick 'em.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

betcris nad pinny should have lines up soon...can't wait.

To be honest, I'm not seein any value in any of these 78 lines.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

Guess I'm the only one that thinks there's value on Bisping.

I think if he and Hamill fought again Saturday, it would be a 50/50 fight. Bisping was made painfully aware that he would need to adopt a different style of striking that would allow him to defend takedowns as well. I don't think Bisping is an idiot. He would have cleaned this up a bit. Bisping also has the advantage in that he's essentially training for the Hamill fight all over again.

While Rashad is more skilled than Hamill, if I remember correctly, he didn't cut any weight to fight Tito, making him under-sized for his weight class.

Hamill did cut weight for the Bisping fight, right?

If those two factors line up... I can't see this fight being any more than 60/40 Evans, barring injury or training camp problems.

Still... betting against Greg Jackson scares the bejesus out of me.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]


Still... betting against Greg Jackson scares the bejesus out of me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because after having such a bad year, his camp is due? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

svj,

Rashad was on one of the Sherdog radio shows recently and said he was sick about 4 weeks before the fight and lost 10 pounds. He, obviously, continued to lose weight during training, so that's why he came in so light.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

also, anyone boycotting this PPV ? 45 bux for this PPV is an outrage considering the horrible lineup they've put together here. I'm a big MMA fan but this is ridiculous ...

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

Outside of the main event being weak, this is a solid card with interesting, relevant fights. There isn't one fight that makes me think, "Meh, that might be a good time to order a pizza/go to the bathroom/grab another beer." Top-to-bottom, I like this card more than 77.

Considering the rumors that UFC 80 may be on Spike and rumors that the Super Bowl weekend show may end up on CBS, I wouldn't be too upset paying for this show.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]
Outside of the main event being weak, this is a solid card with interesting, relevant fights. There isn't one fight that makes me think, "Meh, that might be a good time to order a pizza/go to the bathroom/grab another beer." Top-to-bottom, I like this card more than 77.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. The only fight on the main card I'm not that interested in is Herman/Doerksen - I'm looking forward to Chonan/Parysian though..

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

Chonan/Parisyan should be interesting, Fisher/Edgar is another FOTY candidate on paper, Alexander/Silva will answer a lot of questions, and while it's a weak ME, Bisping/Evans is pretty good matchmaking, IMO.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

32501 MICHAEL BISPING +215
32502 RASHAD EVANS -275
8:00 PM11 /17 /07# Money Line
32503 THIAGO SILVA +125
32504 HOUSTON ALEXANDER -155
7:45 PM11 /17 /07# Money Line
32505 JOE DOERKSEN +120
32506 ED HERMAN -150
7:25 PM11 /17 /07# Money Line
32507 RYO CHONAN +275
32508 KARO PARISYAN -345
7:00 PM11 /17 /07# Money Line
32509 SPENCER FISHER -115
32510 FRANK EDGAR -115
5:00 PM11 /17 /07# Money Line
32511 CHRIS LYTLE +150
32512 THIAGO ALVES -180
5:00 PM11 /17 /07# Money Line
32513 JASON REINHARDT +450
32514 JOE LAUZON -600
5:00 PM11 /17 /07# Money Line
32515 LUKE CAUDILLO +350
32516 MARCUS AURELIO -450
5:00 PM11 /17 /07# Money Line
32517 TAMDAN MCCRORY +215
32518 AKIHIRO GONO -275

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

2.3u to win 2u on Frankie edgar.

HE's EV @ betus, but i'm done moving money.

That's the only good bet i saw. I have action bets on rashad/houston/ryo(action underdog)/Gono/Thiago since I'm gonna be @ the event and got pretty good seats.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

Mikey: Thanks for the heads-up, playa!

Haven't gone through the film yet... (Don't usually get around to that until after the weigh-ins)

but my initial impressions are:

Bisping (reduced)
Alexander
Chonan (big)
Edgar
Doerksen (Depending on how much time he had to prep, anyone know?)
Reinhardt

And an action bet on Gono. Don't think there's any value. I just love the guy. Is anyone taking action on whether or not he'll be allowed to have an entrance show seeing as he's on the undercard? LOL

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]

Doerksen (Depending on how much time he had to prep, anyone know?)


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's much more than 10 days - 2 weeks. I'd be all over him if he'd had more time to prepare, but will probs stay away from the fight altogether as it is.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

I have watched MMA since the beginning but don't really know much about MMA betting. But aren't the lines automatically shaded against Liddell in every fight, since the guy is basically the Yankees/ND of MMA? So I would bet Wandy without capping at all.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]

Bisping (reduced)
Alexander
Chonan (big)
Edgar
Doerksen (Depending on how much time he had to prep, anyone know?)
Reinhardt


[/ QUOTE ]

what is your reasoning behind wanting to go big on chonan? i realize he is a quality fighter getting pretty juicy odds, but i don't remember being the least bit impressed by him in any of his pride fights that i've seen...i'm also not sure how great an idea it is to bet on fighters coming into the cage for the first time after a long layoff while their pride contracts were in limbo. i just think that unless you have quality information, their training during this time is a rather substantial question mark

that being said, part of me really wants to put a bet down on Gono too just because im a fan, although i probably won't because the line is not attractive at all...basically im looking forward to his entrance just as much as any of the fights on the card

i think im with a lot of you guys where the only bet that looks even close to having good value to me is Edgar

edit: what do you guys think about Overeem getting +125 vs. Buentello in Strikeforce? Buentello's last fight was against Carter Williams who didn't even look like a legitimate K1 fighter, much less an MMA fighter in that match...this seems like a rather large step up in competition for Buentello to still be the favorite

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

The way the line is moving, I think Fisher is gonna start being the only decent bet on the card. Maybe lytle if Alves gets hammered more.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

FWIW, Chonan's been training up at Team Quest with Hendo and Sok, etc.

re: Overeem
He looked absolutely awful in his last fight against Sergei Kharitonov.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

Only action I've got is Thiago Silva at +130.

Ed Herman at -140 against Doerksen who hasn't looked good lately and is taking the fight on short notice is tempting. I hear nothing but good things about how Ed is training better than ever before, but I just couldn't put the money down. Plus rooting for Ed Herman in a fight would just make me feel a little nauseous inside.

Lines for this event have been mostly reasonable. Only one with significant value IMO is Silva/Alexander and I see that as 60/40 in Silva's favor at the max. 50/50 if he chooses to stand and trade with Houston like he claims he's going to.
79 already looks much better from a gambling perspective.


Overeem could be washed up. Check his record, he hasn't had much go his way in a long time. Factor in his legendarily shallow gas tank and the fact that his game feels a little dated these days and he's about where he should be, line wise

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

Recommended Plays
<ul>
[*]Evans -275 : 2.75u to win 1u
[*]Alexander -155 : 4.65u to win 3u
[*]Doerkson +120 : no action
[*]Karo -345 : 1.72u to win .5u
[*]Fisher +105 : .25u to win .26u
[*]Alves -180 : 1.8u to win 1u
[*]Reinhardt +300 : .15u to win .45u
[*]Aurellio -450 : 2.5u to win .5u
[*]McCrory +200 : .5u to win 1u[/list]
My writeup is live:
Performify's Picks: UFC 78

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

If Silva stands and trades with Houston you're going to see another one minute fight, with someone giving another shout-out about Nebraska at the end...

IMO this is a terrible matchup for Silva for a lot of reasons, but I'm really curious to engage anyone who's strongly backing Silva in some serious debate. I'd really like to hear why you think Silva will win -- where are his strengths compared to HA, what's his gameplan going to be, etc etc.


-P

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

Here are my thoughts about the Silva/Alexander fight.

For one, people overestimate Alexander's striking game. He isn't exactly a crisp, technical boxer. Very few people are in the MMA game, so that's not (necessarily) a huge knock. He tends to flail a bit and that's usually OK because his clinch game is good. I see that as a bad thing in this fight because while in other fights, ending up in the clinch is either a bad thing or somewhat neutral, the clinch is a bad position in this fight.

As a Chute Boxe fighter, I guarantee that Silva is well versed in the clinch. But the thing is that even if he's NOT getting the best of the clinch, if he starts taking the worst of it, it'll simply lead to a takedown, which is where he's clearly the dominant fighter. His ground game is good, Alexander's is not. I think everyone can agree that if this fight hits the mat with Silva on top, Alexander's chances are quite low.

So that's how I see it. The questions the fight have to answer for me are:
1) Will Alexander be able to knock him out with an early rush, or box conservatively enough to avoid a takedown.
2) If no, will Alexander be able to dominate the clinch?
3) Whether 2 is true or not, will he be able to avoid a takedown from the clinch?
4) If taken down, can he avoid being submitted?
5) If this gets into round 2 or 3, will he have anything left?

I see enough 'no's here to make Silva my pick. I respect Houston's game a lot and that's why I wanted to try and get +150 on this, but I think there's still enough edge at +130 to make this worth my bet.

For the sake of fairness my worries are
1) Silva tries to bang with Alexander and like you said, goes to sleep in a minute or two.
2) Silva plays ultra passive and keeps away (which by my estimation basically does Houston's job for him) instead of engaging
3) Silva pulls guard. While it sounds strange that I wouldn't want a BJJ black belt to pull guard, I worry that if he pulls guard and works for an arm or triangle too quickly, Houston will pass him and at the very least win the round (at worst damage him). Silva's top game is worlds better than his bottom game.


That's my thoughts on the fight. I'm curious as to why you like Houston so much in the fight, since I really respect your opinion when it comes to the fight game.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

[ QUOTE ]
Doerksen (Depending on how much time he had to prep, anyone know?)


[/ QUOTE ]

Thirteen days. November 4th was the date he was told.

His last fight was for the WEC title against Filho at WEC 29 - Las Vegas on 8/5/2007.

Supposedly he was back in the gym right after the fight, but I hear that a lot and don't always believe it.

-P

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

You're making a TON of assumptions about Houston.

You have pretty much two minutes of footage on him.

[ QUOTE ]
people overestimate Alexander's striking game. He isn't exactly a crisp, technical boxer.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he's not a highly technical boxer. But he's trained by a muay thai world champion. He's got a lot better stand-up than you assume he does, and a lot better technique than you've seen in the two minutes you've seen.

[ QUOTE ]
But the thing is that even if he's NOT getting the best of the clinch, if he starts taking the worst of it, it'll simply lead to a takedown

[/ QUOTE ]

Up against the fence in the clench, how exactly will this lead to a takedown? Silva can't pull guard up against the fence. he won't be able to change levels to go for a leg with Houston controlling his head and throwing inside.

[ QUOTE ]
which is where he's clearly the dominant fighter. His ground game is good, Alexander's is not. I think everyone can agree that if this fight hits the mat with Silva on top, Alexander's chances are quite low.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is where you make serious assumptions about something you have no clue about, unless i seriously underestimate your information sources [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I'm not saying Houston is a BJJ blackbelt. he's not.

But strength, power, athleticism, and really really good wrestling skills combined with approx six months of hard BJJ training from one of the best BJJ coaches in the world... he's got a lot better ground game (especially defensively) than you or anyone else give him a chance.



[ QUOTE ]

5) If this gets into round 2 or 3, will he have anything left?

[/ QUOTE ]

Houston has fantastic cardio. He's one of the most athletic guys in the UFC right now. What do you base his cardio questions on? The fact that he dumped adrenaline AFTER he won his second major UFC fight and was breathing hard in the post-fight interview? Or did he look really gassed after destroying Jardine in a minute? Or Sakara in a minute?

Silva has a highly suspect gas tank. he gassed _hard_ against Drwal early in the second round.

The longer this fight goes, the more it is Houston's advantage.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious as to why you like Houston so much in the fight, since I really respect your opinion when it comes to the fight game.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you've been following all of my stuff on Houston over at Junkie (if not, start with my latest Houston Alexander interview and roll back through the previous intereviews which are linked there). I've been inside his training camp, extensively, since UFC 71. I know who he's training with. I know what he's doing inside camp, and how hard he's working. I've seen him on the ground, extensively, working with all-american NCAA wrestlers (not hard to find in Nebraska) and a world-class Jiu Jitsu instructor.

It's all based on inside information, i guess -- but its really obvious (to me) that a lot of people are underestimating Houston. Everyone thinks for whatever reason he's got a suspect gas tank. Everyone thinks he's got no ground game. All based on assumptions because he's tatooed and black, I guess, that he must be a random street brawler.

He's been fighting for a long, long time. He's got a top-tier coaching staff behind him. He's going to answer a lot of questions this weekend, hopefully. I'm very much hoping that his coaching staff is correct and the weakness they belive they've ID'd in Silva will result in the one minute KO again -- because its just going to give me yet another opportunity to likely bet on an underrated Houston Alexander in the future. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

--

Of course, all the positive stuff I've said above -- this is not the lock of the century. If I thought Houston should be a -400 favorite you'd see me putting a WHOLE lot more on it. I do think he's a very good bet around -150, and you can imagine how hard I actually hit the line when it opened around -115.

I probably won't start to buy back on Houston unless I can get Silva around +165 or +170, if that gives you an idea of my estimate of the true value of this line.

Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
 

P,

How do you seen the Chonan/Parisyan fight going?