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-   -   Week 12 NFL player props thread (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=552187)

silentbob 11-22-2007 11:38 AM

Week 12 NFL player props thread
 
Hoping for a turnaround this week.

Tony Romo under 3 TD passes at -115 for 2 units (Bodog). This line has been pounded down to -140 in the past hour, sorry for not posting this sooner. The Jets haven't given up more than 3 passing TDs in any game since Mangini took over. In fact, they've given up 3 passing TDs only twice, and once this season (Brady in Week 1). The Jets give up a ton of yards but actually don't concede many TDs generally and have been fairly stout in recent weeks. My sense is that this bet loses about 15 percent of the time, but the push percentage may be fairly high, so it's not clear how much edge there is here. But there is definitely an edge IMO.

YTD: 28-22, +4.65 units

rsigley 11-22-2007 11:41 AM

Re: Week 12 NFL player props thread
 
posted this in the turkey day thread, but

kitna o265.5 passing yards (-110)
kitna o36.5 pass attempts (-120)
marion barber o92.5 rushing + receiving (-120)

detroit seems to have abandoned the running game since their bye week + i think they'll be playing from behind most of the day so they'll be throwing a lot

jets worst defense for barber bet

silentbob 11-22-2007 11:49 AM

Re: Week 12 NFL player props thread
 
I was also ready to jump on Favre under 318.5/-115 but while doing some analysis the line moved to 310.5/-135, which isn't nearly as appealing. One more:

Reggie Wayne over 82.5 receiving yards at -115 for 1 unit (VIP/BetGameDay). Betting a soft line more than anything else. Bodog is offering 92.5/-125 for the over. I have Wayne projected in the high 80s, although many seem to think that he'll finish with over 100.

BTW, the Marion Barber rushing+receiving yards line is 75.5/-130 on VIP/BetGameDay. I considered playing for a middle but the juice probably ain't worth the squeeze.

1MoreFish4U 11-22-2007 12:04 PM

Re: Week 12 NFL player props thread
 
I placed a couple.

Skybook T Jones -12.5 > rush yds than J Jones +125
Greek R Williams under 5.5 receptions +120

rsigley 11-22-2007 12:42 PM

Re: Week 12 NFL player props thread
 
[ QUOTE ]


BTW, the Marion Barber rushing+receiving yards line is 75.5/-130 on VIP/BetGameDay. I considered playing for a middle but the juice probably ain't worth the squeeze.

[/ QUOTE ]

wish i wasn't banned from VIP [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I won 5 bets in a row there and they said my action isn't welcome, makes no sense

silentbob 11-22-2007 01:12 PM

Re: Week 12 NFL player props thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
wish i wasn't banned from VIP [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
I must really suck, for having played there for 2 years and not been banned yet. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Anyway, free middle on Donald Driver receiving yards:

Over 69.5 -110 (VIP/BetGameDay)
Under 73.5 +110 (Bodog)

Paul B. 11-24-2007 11:04 PM

Re: Week 12 NFL player props thread
 
Party has Drew Brees > Vinny Testaverde in passing yards -182. Vinny may not start but it's good enough for a max bet anyway.

Paul B. 11-25-2007 12:11 AM

Re: Week 12 NFL player props thread
 
Also booked Eli Manning > Tarvaris Jackson in passing yards -500.

1MoreFish4U 11-25-2007 12:56 AM

Re: Week 12 NFL player props thread
 
At Party I jumped on Losman +170 large - no running game & Jax should have the lead & run the ball.

Also played Schaub +110 medium, and Hasselbeck -167 small.

silentbob 11-25-2007 11:07 AM

Re: Week 12 NFL player props thread
 
Two more bets:

Bobby Engram under 78.5 receiving yards at -115 for 1 unit (Bodog). Hackett is reported to be starting and Branch is finally healthy, so Engram goes back to WR3 (i.e., fewer targets). My only concern is that Seattle's offense has gotten pass-heavy now that Alexander is out. The Rams have been pretty good against 3rd and 4th receivers though.

49ers QBs under 20.5 pass completions at -115 for 1 unit (Bodog). This line seems a couple of completions too high. Gore is becoming more healthy, so the 49ers are unlikely to air it out as much as they have the last couple of weeks. Dilfer has completed only about half his passes, so he would have to throw over 40 times again to cover this line. The only worry is that he could throw a lot of short passes, although the Cardinals pass defense is very underrated.

Good luck to all.

Porkchop Express 11-25-2007 01:36 PM

Re: Week 12 NFL player props thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
Two more bets:

Bobby Engram under 78.5 receiving yards at -115 for 1 unit (Bodog). Hackett is reported to be starting and Branch is finally healthy, so Engram goes back to WR3 (i.e., fewer targets). My only concern is that Seattle's offense has gotten pass-heavy now that Alexander is out. The Rams have been pretty good against 3rd and 4th receivers though.



[/ QUOTE ]

Wish I could have gotten in on this when it was reasonable, its now under 72 at -145. Ugh.

silentbob 11-25-2007 01:58 PM

Re: Week 12 NFL player props thread
 
I can't stay away from overs:

Vince Young over 29.5 pass attempts at -115 for 1 unit (Bodog). Opposing QBs have exceeded this figure against the Bengals in all but two games. One was last week when Arizona returned two picks for TDs and didn't have the ball as much. I expect lots of possessions due to the Bengals potent offense (now that Henry is back) and lack of running game, although they might be able to grind it out because Haynesworth isn't playing. And if the Bengals jump out to a lead, Young will be forced to pass a ton as he has the last two weeks.

J.P. Losman over 16 pass completions at -125 for 1 unit (Bodog). Betting on Losman could be foolish, but let's face it, he had to go up against a juggernaut defense last week. The Jaguars haven't held any team under this figure since Week 2, and their best CB (Mathis) is out. The Bills still don't have Lynch and will likely be forced to pass, even more so if the Jaguars jump to a lead.

mogwai316 11-25-2007 09:07 PM

Re: Week 12 NFL player props thread
 
Westbrook rushing yards, over 79.5, 1u at -115
Westbrook to score first TD, 0.2u at 10/1

silentbob 11-25-2007 09:41 PM

Re: Week 12 NFL player props thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
Tony Romo under 3 TD passes at -115 for 2 units (Bodog).

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks, Cowboys running game!

[ QUOTE ]
Reggie Wayne over 82.5 receiving yards at -115 for 1 unit (VIP/BetGameDay).

[/ QUOTE ]
Peyton targeted him all game, so it wasn't for lack of trying.

[ QUOTE ]
Bobby Engram under 78.5 receiving yards at -115 for 1 unit (Bodog).

[/ QUOTE ]
Almost had to sweat this, but the Seahawks held the Rams in the final minute.

[ QUOTE ]
49ers QBs under 20.5 pass completions at -115 for 1 unit (Bodog).

[/ QUOTE ]
Cardinals defense failed to show up. WTF?

[ QUOTE ]
Vince Young over 29.5 pass attempts at -115 for 1 unit (Bodog).

[/ QUOTE ]
Garbage time cover #1.

[ QUOTE ]
J.P. Losman over 16 pass completions at -125 for 1 unit (Bodog).

[/ QUOTE ]
Garbage time cover #2.

This week: 4-2, +2.28 units
YTD: 32-24, +6.93 units


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