Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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Umm... The 2nd and 4th best Ds in the league and Over is the clear play?!?!


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Ravens D is extremely old and overrated. They gave up 5 TDs to Roethlisberger in one half. Imagine what Brady, Moss, and Welker will do. Not saying they'll match the 5 TDs in the half but still. Some of the "decent" offenses they've played just recently (last 4 games actually)--Pitt, Cinci, and and San Diego put up 91 combined. Ravens D isn't even in the top 10 let alone the top 5 imo

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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Umm... The 2nd and 4th best Ds in the league and Over is the clear play?!?!


[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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Ravens D is extremely old and overrated. They gave up 5 TDs to Roethlisberger in one half. Imagine what Brady, Moss, and Welker will do. Not saying they'll match the 5 TDs in the half but still. Some of the "decent" offenses they've played just recently (last 4 games actually)--Pitt, Cinci, and and San Diego put up 91 combined. Ravens D isn't even in the top 10 let alone the top 5 imo

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Yawn. Good thing your opinion is terrible. FO has them as 4th. They're still solid. But I don't think a matchup of a horrid offense and two top defenses screams out over as the preferred and obv play.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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Umm... The 2nd and 4th best Ds in the league and Over is the clear play?!?!


[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Ravens D is extremely old and overrated. They gave up 5 TDs to Roethlisberger in one half. Imagine what Brady, Moss, and Welker will do. Not saying they'll match the 5 TDs in the half but still. Some of the "decent" offenses they've played just recently (last 4 games actually)--Pitt, Cinci, and and San Diego put up 91 combined. Ravens D isn't even in the top 10 let alone the top 5 imo

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Yawn. Good thing your opinion is terrible. FO has them as 4th. They're still solid. But I don't think a matchup of a horrid offense and two top defenses screams out over as the preferred and obv play.

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Yeah and just because FO has them 4th makes them REALLY a top 5 D[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Don't you think earlier games against the Jets, 49ers, and Rams(without Bulger and SJax at the time) have just a little to do with that?

If you wanna go by stats and stats only then NFL.com has them as the 3rd rushing D and 15th passing D. You think the Patriots are going to run the ball? So you have the #1 passing O up against the #15 passing D playing for what will probably be most of the day because the Ravens offense is garbage. Will that "Top D" have ANY gas left at all in the 4th, after being on the field all game?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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Ravens D is extremely old and overrated. They gave up 5 TDs to Roethlisberger in one half.

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Someone didn't read the Baltimore injury report that week. Circumstantial and incomplete evidence is meaningless.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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Ravens D is extremely old and overrated. They gave up 5 TDs to Roethlisberger in one half.

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Someone didn't read the Baltimore injury report that week. Circumstantial and incomplete evidence is meaningless.

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Ok noted, and relying on a team to be 4th best in any given category when clearly that ranking is inflated due to a string of games against weak offenses is not circumstantial?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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Yeah and just because FO has them 4th makes them REALLY a top 5 D[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Don't you think earlier games against the Jets, 49ers, and Rams(without Bulger and SJax at the time) have just a little to do with that?

If you wanna go by stats and stats only then NFL.com has them as the 3rd rushing D and 15th passing D. You think the Patriots are going to run the ball? So you have the #1 passing O up against the #15 passing D playing for what will probably be most of the day because the Ravens offense is garbage. Will that "Top D" have ANY gas left at all in the 4th, after being on the field all game?

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I think you should read up on DVOA, it's adjusted for the strength of opponents.

However, you have a point; according to FO BAL is 2nd against the run and 16th against the pass so Brady should be able to light them up

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

Here's an interesting thing that nobody has mentioned yet (probably because not many people believe in it like I do).

A handicapper who I respect has the Ravens in the bottom five of his power rankings (bottom four, actually). But he also quantifies home-field advantage for each team, instead of just blindly assigning three points to each home team.

Usually, Denver and KC enjoy the highest HFA numbers on this man's list. Baltimore is usually high on the list.

As of this week, Baltimore has the highest HFA ranking, according to him. Instead of the standard three points for home-ice, he gives Baltimore almost eight points for being at home.

(If you were wondering, he makes the Pats MINUS ONE for HFA, meaning he thinks they play better on the road than at home.)

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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Ravens D is extremely old and overrated. They gave up 5 TDs to Roethlisberger in one half.

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Someone didn't read the Baltimore injury report that week. Circumstantial and incomplete evidence is meaningless.

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Not only that, but the longest TD drive for Pitt in that game was 50 yards. Blaming a defense for its offense's inability to hold onto the ball and constantly giving the other team a short field to work with is unfair.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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Here's an interesting thing that nobody has mentioned yet (probably because not many people believe in it like I do).

A handicapper who I respect has the Ravens in the bottom five of his power rankings (bottom four, actually). But he also quantifies home-field advantage for each team, instead of just blindly assigning three points to each home team.

Usually, Denver and KC enjoy the highest HFA numbers on this man's list. Baltimore is usually high on the list.

As of this week, Baltimore has the highest HFA ranking, according to him. Instead of the standard three points for home-ice, he gives Baltimore almost eight points for being at home.

(If you were wondering, he makes the Pats MINUS ONE for HFA, meaning he thinks they play better on the road than at home.)

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how does he quantify it? anything you can share?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

ytf, that's pretty interesting, but I have a hard time believing Baltimore is 8 points better at home. Is he using data from previous years or just from this year?