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-   -   $114 AA gross flop (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=523171)

DDBeast 10-15-2007 01:52 AM

$114 AA gross flop
 
1st hand

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1500)
Hero (t1500)
CO (t1500)
Button (t1500)
SB (t1500)
BB (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is in MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="red">MP2 raises to t40</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t160</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>, MP2 calls t120

Flop: (t350) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
<font color="red">MP2 bets t300</font>, Hero...

Pudge714 10-15-2007 02:00 AM

Re: $114 AA gross flop
 
Shove. You have like 40% equity against two pair and most people don't donk sets or AT here.

Eagles 10-15-2007 02:04 AM

Re: $114 AA gross flop
 
[ QUOTE ]
Shove. You have like 40% equity against two pair and most people don't donk sets or AT here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think I like call more

vers 10-15-2007 02:05 AM

Re: $114 AA gross flop
 
Yeah, even if he does have 2 pair you're not in that bad shape. If he flopped something huge, villain's line likely would be CR so this donk bet looks pretty weak. Shove readless.

pineapple888 10-15-2007 04:04 AM

Re: $114 AA gross flop
 
[ QUOTE ]
Shove. You have like 40% equity against two pair and most people don't donk sets or AT here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cmon, dude. 40% equity is crap this early. ICM still applies, right?

Plus board is ridiculously draw-heavy and value-heavy so anyone with any clue is betting a set.

Fold.

OK, I'll go away now.

kleath 10-15-2007 04:45 AM

Re: $114 AA gross flop
 
Mp2 anyone of note?

Little John 10-15-2007 08:15 AM

Re: $114 AA gross flop
 
well, mp2 min raises preflop L1, probably not a very good player. i think i just shove.

Q.. 10-15-2007 08:26 AM

Re: $114 AA gross flop
 
I think KQJ flop is best unsuited flop for folding AA, but we still need more reads to do that, here 1v1 with hes 40 raise - call - 300 donk i guess we can't fold.

with this board we are still favorable against this pretty tight range.

Hand 0: 53.256% 50.26% 02.99% 277668 16528.50 { AA }
Hand 1: 46.744% 43.75% 02.99% 241695 16528.50 { TT+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+ }

Newbie236 10-15-2007 10:50 AM

Re: $114 AA gross flop
 
Too early to gamble. I don't see any reason get involved when you could easily be way behind. Calling the flop gives you no information. Raising the flop commits you. Too murky for me. You still have plenty of equity after a fold. What hand are we hoping to see after our all-in is called? AK, KT, QT, JT? Club draw? I agree the flop bet is a bizarre line for the villain but I don't think I want to guess where I stand for all my equity. Maybe I'm too weak in these situations.

Pudge714 10-15-2007 11:20 AM

Re: $114 AA gross flop
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Shove. You have like 40% equity against two pair and most people don't donk sets or AT here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cmon, dude. 40% equity is crap this early. ICM still applies, right?

Plus board is ridiculously draw-heavy and value-heavy so anyone with any clue is betting a set.

Fold.

OK, I'll go away now.

[/ QUOTE ]
Assuming he rarely has sets or straights two pair is one of the best hands he can have we still have very good equity against it and there is a lot of overlay.


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