I dare to ask a preflop question
 

I was reading the discussion in this post and the discussion about 4-betting preflop with QQ, and it reminded me of something that came up the last time I was playing 15/30 that is specific to the 5-bet cap rule.

Bellagio 15/30

An early position player open-raises, there are three coldcallers, and I 3-bet QQ from one of the blind positions. The original raiser 4-bets and it's called all the way back around to me. I capped it "for value" against 4 players.

This is a spot where I wonder whether I really have that much value to cap it being OOP against 4 players, one of which potentially holds an overpair (giving the 4-bettor AK/AA/KK plus an occasional JTs or other multiway hand that he's getting frisky with).

Re: I dare to ask a preflop question
 

just calling has hardly any influence over how the hand will play postflop in a 5 way pot.


main factor to consider: equity edge or not

Re: I dare to ask a preflop question
 

[ QUOTE ]
just calling has hardly any influence over how the hand will play postflop in a 5 way pot.


main factor to consider: equity edge or not

[/ QUOTE ]

I vote equity edge.

Re: I dare to ask a preflop question
 

So many more combinations of AK than AA/KK + dead money = easy cap.

AKo/JJ/AQs is closer.

Re: I dare to ask a preflop question
 

[ QUOTE ]
just calling has hardly any influence over how the hand will play postflop in a 5 way pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I considered this, but I don't think it's true.

If I cap preflop and the flop is J-high, I'm leading out. But if I just call the 4-bet, I don't think I would. Or maybe I should?

Re: I dare to ask a preflop question
 

[ QUOTE ]
So many more combinations of AK than AA/KK + dead money = easy cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

The second part of your equation makes me wonder. Would you auto-cap QQ in a 4-handed pot with the same action? 3-handed? Heads up?

The hand count isn't *that* favorable. 16-12 is about about 57-43, and I'm a huge dog (with bad RIO flopping an overpair) against AA/KK and a small favorite against AK. Considering preflop equity against those hands HU,

20% against 12 hands = 2.4 wins
50% against 16 hands = 8 wins

So 10.4 wins out of 28 hands is hovering near 37% equity. The extra players in the pot still have *some* equity, and when I have the best hand, they're usually taking it from me and my 8 wins. So in a 3-handed pot it seems like I'm coming close to break-even and so this does not become an auto-cap anymore. Does this analysis seem correct?

Re: I dare to ask a preflop question
 

Without trying a stove, I'd think about what kind of boards are likely to result in you being a winner. First you have the times when your QQ is the highest overpair and it manages to hold up. Then you have the times where you manage to back into a four card flush or straight that is good. Finally you have the times when you spike a third Q (about 20% of the time) and your hand holds up. You'll lose with your sets fairly often when they don't fill up and someone makes a straight or flush. Even so, I'd imagine your equity in this spot is 25% or so, maybe as high as 30% if the cold-callers are willing to play absolute junk in this spot.

Re: I dare to ask a preflop question
 

How do you have ~8k posts and not use stove?

Liberal: (Wide range for coldcallers, Villain 4-bets JJ+, AK, AQs)

---
5,339,631 games 18.344 secs 291,083 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.448% 28.98% 01.60% 1547484 85631.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 31.502% 30.70% 02.02% 1639020 108039.75 { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 13.024% 12.87% 00.66% 687219 35090.58 { JJ-22, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J7s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A8o+, K9o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o }
Hand 3: 13.010% 12.86% 00.65% 686681 34855.42 { JJ-22, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J7s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A8o+, K9o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o }
Hand 4: 13.015% 12.87% 00.65% 687000 34812.25 { JJ-22, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J7s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A8o+, K9o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o }


---

Conservative: (Tighter range for coldcallers, Villain 3-bets KK+, AK)
---
5,752,745 games 10.031 secs 573,496 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.073% 29.74% 00.18% 1711003 10168.27 { QQ }
Hand 1: 37.394% 38.79% 01.07% 2231254 61417.18 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 11.516% 11.42% 00.85% 656988 49056.02 { JJ-55, A7s+, K9s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o }
Hand 3: 11.509% 11.42% 00.85% 656794 48856.52 { JJ-55, A7s+, K9s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o }
Hand 4: 11.507% 11.41% 00.85% 656557 48961.02 { JJ-55, A7s+, K9s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o }

Re: I dare to ask a preflop question
 

[ QUOTE ]
How do you have ~8k posts and not use stove?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not that I don't use stove, but as much as possible, I try to break down situations in my head to strengthen my intuition and to practice making quick and accurate estimates.

I find it rather amusing that the difference between the two situations is less than 2% (in terms of hero's equity) and that the brute force computation seems to suggest that the cutoff of an auto-cap is likely right around 2 villains, which is where the estimate found it to be.

Re: I dare to ask a preflop question
 

[ QUOTE ]

How do you have ~8k posts and not use stove?

[/ QUOTE ]

i have over 8k posts and i've never used pokerstove once in my life.

anyways, you guys seem to be underestimating just how nitty vegas players are so i wouldn't really mind not capping here, but i would almost always in this spot for the reasons sweetjazz gave though i'm not nearly as optimistic about how often we will actually have the best hand and still have the best hand at the end unimproved.