Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

10 handed $225 on the bubble. utg is bigjoe2003.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">UTG (t5225)</font>
Button (t1800)
SB (t2140)
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t5835)</font>

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t5200</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t4800.

Flop: (t10075) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: (t10075) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t10075) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t10075

Upon busting, bigjoe informed me that this play was like -$100EV. My reasoning is that while this might be -EV for me, it is worse more -EV for him, and if I make calls like this against regulars, they will not be able to profitably push garbage on the bubble any more vs. my big blind. (he had J6). He said he wouldn't change his push range because I call him there with AK, but I'm not so sure. Seems like he'd have to to maximize profit.

Not to mention, if I fold everything in this situation but AA-QQ I not only make it very profitable for him to push any2 on the bubble, I also make it very likely that once we are in the money I will have equal of less chips than someone who is going to play roughly perfectly, while the other two players were pretty bad and missed out on all kinds of +ev situations, meaning that if I take out bigjoe I have a monster stack and lots of fold equity, giving me a very good chance of taking first.

is my reasoning sound at all, or am I just giving money away?

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

How'd he bust you with J6?

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

he busted, not me. sry if that was unclear.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

Oh my bad I can't read.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

You don't want to be flipping when you have such a dominant position against two other stacks on the bubble. Because you are so close in stack size you will be extremely short if you lose here, and AK is flipping against so many hands except like Ax/Kx. A 60/40 here is terrible, it would be better to shove wide on other hands maintaining your lead when he can't call either and hopefully destroy the bubble when the blinds raise or the other stacks shorten.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

According to the nash calculator bigjoe is wrong, john says he should be pushing with only 52 percent and you can call with AKo. I'm guessing bigjoe pushes more than 52 percent here (I seen his videos). So I dunno how he says its a bad call. Also if he wants to lose a large amount of equity every time he shoves 75o, while you only lose a slight amount when you happen to have a borderline calling hand, so be it IMO.

I could easily be wrong about everything said above, just my opinion and I suck.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

Post the SNGWhiz plot of $EV difference for AKo vs. bigjoe's push range or it ddn't happen.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

the idea is that, as kevin touched on, its much better to shove when you know he cant call than call off with such close stacks and such a dominating position when hes already shoved.

If hes on any 2, its barely +EV (+0.1)....since bigjoe is known to spite call anyways, I'd probably have just typed in "my bubble!!!!" if i had made the call.

fact is, even if the shorty is calling kinda loose and you calling with as wide as JJ+, AK, he should still be pushing like 90% of his hands, so its almost always going to be +EV or him to be shoving more or less ATC. it sucks but you just cant really call, he got to act before you....such is life.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

You're right, it is -ev for both of you but more so for him.

I can't help but wonder if him saying his range wouldn't change for you isn't in itself a metagame move. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I hope some of the high level regs chime in here with their thoughts on the metagame implications.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

Nash doesn't apply here. That's for HU.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

Joe gets mad when he busts on the bubble I think and just berates randomly, it may not be the best option but in the play itself its not -$ev

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

Also AMT we fare better against a slightly tighter range than ATC

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

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If hes on any 2, its barely +EV (+0.1)....since bigjoe is known to spite call anyways, I'd probably have just typed in "my bubble!!!!" if i had made the call.


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I think bigjoe's pushing slightly less than 100% here. I've seen in his vids him folding things like 25o while explaining that if it was suited it'd be good enough. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

[ QUOTE ]
the idea is that, as kevin touched on, its much better to shove when you know he cant call than call off with such close stacks and such a dominating position when hes already shoved.

If hes on any 2, its barely +EV (+0.1)....since bigjoe is known to spite call anyways, I'd probably have just typed in "my bubble!!!!" if i had made the call.

fact is, even if the shorty is calling kinda loose and you calling with as wide as JJ+, AK, he should still be pushing like 90% of his hands, so its almost always going to be +EV or him to be shoving more or less ATC. it sucks but you just cant really call, he got to act before you....such is life.

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?

NE calculator shows BJ should shove 100% and BB should call 4.7%, including AKo.

If either BJ doesn't push enough, or perhaps he is pushing correctly because he's correctly assuming people are calling too much (may or may not be true), then it would be a bad call. If everyone is playing correctly, or if BJ is playing correctly and correctly reading people for folding too much, then it's a good call.

edit: RE AKo vs narrower range - yeah, it may be a good call even if BJ thinks people call a little too much.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

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Also AMT we fare better against a slightly tighter range than ATC

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you're right, but it looks like the EV difference from when hes pushing ATC vs 90% vs 85% is like within 1 and 2 cents of each other. I'm not good enough to narrow it that much [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

Fold AK.
Snap call T9s and type "my bubble" into chat.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

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Also AMT we fare better against a slightly tighter range than ATC

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Good to know, I was thinking the other way.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

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Nash doesn't apply here. That's for HU.

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I was going by the holdemresources nash icm calculator, which says its a +ev. I'd guess he's probably pushing wider I think 85-90% is a good figure like you said, which I figured would make it an easier call, but maybe its about the same.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

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Also AMT we fare better against a slightly tighter range than ATC

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you're right, but it looks like the EV difference from when hes pushing ATC vs 90% vs 85% is like within 1 and 2 cents of each other. I'm not good enough to narrow it that much [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Thats because you arent bigjoe lol

Imo this is probably a fold even considering meta, especially when the 2 shorties are close in chips AND they play too passive here, meaning you and joe are often just gonna trade off taking pots until one picks up a hand or gets pissed, I really doubt its a $100 mistake though.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

If he was in the SB I'd snap call because you'll be subject to him pushing relentlessly the next few hands. Since you are on his right you'll be able to shove in front of him on the next 3 hands.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

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Nash doesn't apply here. That's for HU.

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Nash not only applies to more than just HU, it applies to more than poker.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

[ QUOTE ]
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Nash doesn't apply here. That's for HU.

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Nash not only applies to more than just HU, it applies to more than poker.

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Microbet has a beautiful mind...

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

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Also AMT we fare better against a slightly tighter range than ATC

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you're right, but it looks like the EV difference from when hes pushing ATC vs 90% vs 85% is like within 1 and 2 cents of each other. I'm not good enough to narrow it that much [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Thats because you arent bigjoe lol

Imo this is probably a fold even considering meta, especially when the 2 shorties are close in chips AND they play too passive here, meaning you and joe are often just gonna trade off taking pots until one picks up a hand or gets pissed, I really doubt its a $100 mistake though.

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So do you think if I push ATC from the LB the next hand, that bigjoe is folding AKo? What about 88?

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

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Nash doesn't apply here. That's for HU.

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Nash not only applies to more than just HU, it applies to more than poker.

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Obviously, I just didn't know there were calcs for this and wrongly assumed poster was using push/fold charts.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

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Also AMT we fare better against a slightly tighter range than ATC

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you're right, but it looks like the EV difference from when hes pushing ATC vs 90% vs 85% is like within 1 and 2 cents of each other. I'm not good enough to narrow it that much [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Thats because you arent bigjoe lol

Imo this is probably a fold even considering meta, especially when the 2 shorties are close in chips AND they play too passive here, meaning you and joe are often just gonna trade off taking pots until one picks up a hand or gets pissed, I really doubt its a $100 mistake though.

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So do you think if I push ATC from the LB the next hand, that bigjoe is folding AKo? What about 88?

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I think he'll fold AK, prob fold 88 but hell call 88 more than AK

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

Game theory's Nash Equilibrium applies to two player games. Calling here is -EV, but since Bigjoe pushes almost ATC here, I dont mind the call. Since he is a regular, and a good one at that, he will probably note the call, push tighter against you, and tell you he's sliding ATC.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

LOOL. The day I fold AK there to bigjoe is the day I quit poker forever and take up bird watching or something. He just wants you to fold so he can start owning the crap out of you. If the thinks you're capable of folding AK there it just means you're going to get it about 3x worse in the future.

Oh yeah, the correct response there is "What does -$100EV mean?"

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

I agree with people who said, [censored] this hand, fold and then push ATC on his ass until the bubble bursts.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

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Game theory's Nash Equilibrium applies to two player games. Calling here is -EV, but since Bigjoe pushes almost ATC here, I dont mind the call. Since he is a regular, and a good one at that, he will probably note the call, push tighter against you, and tell you he's sliding ATC.

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Zergum, please explain Game Theory's Nash Equilibrium and why it doesn't apply to more than two players.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

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Game theory's Nash Equilibrium applies to two player games. Calling here is -EV, but since Bigjoe pushes almost ATC here, I dont mind the call. Since he is a regular, and a good one at that, he will probably note the call, push tighter against you, and tell you he's sliding ATC.

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It applies to far more, I made an incorrect assumption as to what the poster I responded to was thinking.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

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I agree with people who said, [censored] this hand, fold and then push ATC on his ass until the bubble bursts.

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Because we all know bigjoe would never call with a marginal hand and the CL to just to make a statement.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

ok I just did a bunch of math for this with a calculator.
Fev = future equity (which I have due to 2 poor players with short stacks).

(1) Before the hand:
My equity: $699.8 + Fev
Joe's equity: $666.9 + Fev

(2) If I fold AKo.
My equity: $680.8 + Fev
Joe's equity: $707.5 + Fev

(3) I call AKo. Assuming I'm 60/40 vs. his range. (could be higher considering he folds his worst hands and probably doesn't push AA/KK.)

(3a) I win.
My equity: $939 + Fev
Joe's equity: 0

(3b) I lose.
My equity: $199.3
Joe's equity: $915.6 + Fev

Total: (.6)($939 + Fev) + (.4)($199.3) = $643.12 +~(.5)Fev
and Joe's: (.4)(915.6 + Fev) = $366 + (.4)Fev

Conclusion: I lose $37.68 and about half of my future edge by calling. Joe loses $341.5 and 60% of his future edge when I call him.

I'm willing to sacriface $37.68 equity to cost Joe $341.5, because in the future it will be correct for him not to push as light. If in the future he folds his J6 in this spot I either get a walk, or call a short stacks push, with the same 60/40 edge, a result which will probably raise my equity by more than the $37.68 I lost in this game.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

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Snap call T9s and type "my bubble" into chat.

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I like this. Calling with AK here isn't going to send any kind of message to bigjoe that you're a "bubble protector." But calling with a hand like T9s that both figures to do well against his range and sends a message that you're not afraid to spite call can be very profitable in the long run, IMO.

As for your hand, it's definitely a fold in a vacuum.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

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I agree with people who said, [censored] this hand, fold and then push ATC on his ass until the bubble bursts.

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Because we all know bigjoe would never call with a marginal hand and the CL to just to make a statement.

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Oh, did not know that. In that case, it's rather clear-cut.
Calling here has to be less -EV than the EV we lose from not being able to call ATC the next few hands.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

Seems to me he's just pissed off that he had your range wrong. And that cost him more than $100.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

JDalla, why are you assuming 60/40 when AKo is 65/35 vs random and you are suggesting his range might be worse off than ATC?

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

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Game theory's Nash Equilibrium applies to two player games. Calling here is -EV, but since Bigjoe pushes almost ATC here, I dont mind the call. Since he is a regular, and a good one at that, he will probably note the call, push tighter against you, and tell you he's sliding ATC.

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Zergum, please explain Game Theory's Nash Equilibrium and why it doesn't apply to more than two players.

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http://img260.imageshack.us/img260/2...rp30198ai4.jpg

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

i think all of these neg ev calls between regulars is pretty silly on the bubble. all it really does is transfer equity from the two of you to the two other players (assuming they are not winning regulars).

i would just make sure i push ATC (or 90%) into joe every time. if he is not making neg ev calls than you should not either.

now, if you catch joe making neg ev calls vs you on the bubble then you should return the favor.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

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i think all of these neg ev calls between regulars is pretty silly on the bubble. all it really does is transfer equity from the two of you to the two other players (assuming they are not winning regulars).



i would just make sure i push ATC (or 90%) into joe every time. if he is not making neg ev calls than you should not either.

now, if you catch joe making neg ev calls vs you on the bubble then you should return the favor.

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you spite call me on the bubble all day long.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

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i think all of these neg ev calls between regulars is pretty silly on the bubble. all it really does is transfer equity from the two of you to the two other players (assuming they are not winning regulars).



i would just make sure i push ATC (or 90%) into joe every time. if he is not making neg ev calls than you should not either.

now, if you catch joe making neg ev calls vs you on the bubble then you should return the favor.

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you spite call me on the bubble all day long.

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i call you very light, but that is because i put you on ATC anytime you have the chiplead and i'm not 100% great with my bubble call ranges, thus stuck playing 60's.

but if you think i've made some big time neg ev calls vs 100% push range, pm or e-mail me them and i'll take a look, and i apologize in advance if they are really bad.

i'll check my database and see if i can find a few...