Pull the trigger? (100NL)
 

Hi guys, this is basically a question about flow/'levelling' etc. I feel like this is an area of my game that could definitely use some work, so I've tried to give an accurate reconstruction of the history and see how you think it should impact on the pre-flop play of a particular hand. The title may be a slight misnomer as there is no bluffing involved but I thought it was kind of apt anyway.

Villain is running at 20/19 over 250 hands. Seems like a decent, aggressive player. He has been sitting just to my left over a couple of tables for quite a while. Early on he 3-bet my lp raises quite a lot, I 4-bet him a couple of times and he folded. Since then he seems to have backed off a bit. An orbit or so ago we played this hand:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP ($100.45)
CO ($22.95)
Button ($136.15)
SB ($137.85)
BB ($109.90)
Hero ($128.45)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, MP calls $4, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $4, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($13.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $9</font>, MP calls $9, Button folds.

Turn: ($31.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, MP calls $20.

River: ($71.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $95.45 (All-In)</font>, MP folds.

Ok now the main hand:

CO is 50/13 type. I have 3-bet villain's utg raise from the blinds once previously, though some time ago.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG ($98.50)
MP ($13.45)
CO ($112.35)
Button ($158.70)
SB ($116.40)
Hero ($162.45)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $4, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $19</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $47</font>, CO folds, Hero ?

Re: Pull the trigger? (100NL)
 

fold imo

Re: Pull the trigger? (100NL)
 

fold

Re: Pull the trigger? (100NL)
 

first off he´s raising utg while his opening range is quite wide...his 4b range should be really narrow...I think his range is almost always JJ+/AK here..if he was doing this from somewhere else im stacking off here because of our history...but this time he can have it..include TT in his range and we are fliping..


edit:spellcheck

Re: Pull the trigger? (100NL)
 

Fold. SA/WB, can't play for set value, he probably has you crushed or is going to make a better hand 30% of the time on the flop, and the most important factor: You are out of position, and you'll be playing for stacks with a very hard to play hand. Just fold.

Re: Pull the trigger? (100NL)
 

fold

Re: Pull the trigger? (100NL)
 

Really it's hard to say for us, even though you've described SOME history. But really, this 4bet is clearly not a bluff as it is too big, so he folds around 0%, we have no FE. We're never calling this bet because the rest of the hand will be a real bitch to play unless we flop a jack. You've already put 20$ in, so you need to pay 80$ more to win around 205 or so.

80/205=0.4

We need around 40% against his range for this to be good. Let's open up pokerstove!
Against QQ+,AK this is not good, since we have 36% equity, same with JJ+,AK. If he does this with TT+,AK we have 43% and pushing would be slightly EV, if you also think he value 4bets with AQ hands, it becomes even more EV.