2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r
 

Haven't played vs villain much. He's doubled up once after turning the nut straight when someone else hit the 2nd nuts. I haven't been 3-betting much preflop.

$2/$4 Pot Limit Omaha Hi
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG (<font color="#0000cc">$194.00</font>)
CO (<font color="#0000cc">$901.40</font>)
Hero (<font color="#0000cc">$1116.10</font>)
SB (<font color="#0000cc">$357.00</font>)
BB (<font color="#0000cc">$400.00</font>)

Pre-flop: ($6, 5 players) Hero is BTN J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#777777">1 fold</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $14</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $48</font>, <font color="#777777">2 folds</font>, CO calls $34

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($102, 2 players)
CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $102</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $408</font>, [i]<font color="#777777">Hero

Re: 2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r
 

More detailed read would be very helpful, but if villain's played enough with you to develop a read and you haven't been 3-betting much, then it's going to be pretty hard for him to come over the top with a made hand since he'll have to worry about AAA. Your ace could easily be good against a combo draw where you'd be getting it in way ahead. I'd just shove here. Even if he does have AQ or something, you've still got 11 outs and not very many kill cards. Obviously, it sucks if he has middle set, but you have a combo draw dominated worse than CO has you dominated when he does have middle set, so I think you're at least flipping against his range.

Re: 2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r
 

Tough spot 2 BI deep. I probably fold. you have to put him on a set or flushwrap or maybe two pair with a little, but since you have JJ blockers and the A spade thats less likely. I call if money is shallower

Depends on who Villain is and your image tho.

-g

Re: 2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r
 

This is definitely a fold 2BI+ deep, particularly since the only good way you have to win against a set or AQ is a spade.
I guess a good read would change things, but it would have to be a very good read to make this into a call or push. Preflop and flop are standard, although I may bet a bit less like 80 on the flop sometimes but whatever.

Re: 2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r
 

[ QUOTE ]
it's going to be pretty hard for him to come over the top with a made hand since he'll have to worry about AAA

[/ QUOTE ]

unless he has an A in his hand where he won't put you on AAxx as much.

-g

Re: 2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it's going to be pretty hard for him to come over the top with a made hand since he'll have to worry about AAA

[/ QUOTE ]

unless he has an A in his hand where he won't put you on AAxx as much.

-g

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but if that's the case, we have at least two extra outs and possibly more. I'm not saying villain will never push two pair or a set here, I'm just saying that's one factor that should make us weight the probability of a draw a little heavier. There's even a slight chance (probably ~5%) that villain will fold to a shove with something like bottom set.

Re: 2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r
 

I like shoving if there is any fold equity against QQ/66/AQ at all.

Re: 2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r
 

It's a combo draw most of the time, which you have nicely blocked. Shoveapalooza.

Re: 2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r
 

we have th As and the Js. illain is prob not shoving only the KJT no spades hich kind of limits his potential hands.

but sure he could have KsJT9s etc so well was thinking he need both the Ks and Ts but thats not true there are more combos.


anyway here are some simulations:
Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: AdQs6s
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AsJsJc8c 35.43% 212,295 545
66**,QQ**,AA**,KsJTs*,KsJT9s,KJTs8s,KJTs9s,KSJT7s 64.57% 387,160 545


same butwithout AAxx
board: AdQs6s
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AsJsJc8c 36.15% 216,610 530
66**,QQ**,KsJTs*,KsJT9s,KJTs8s,KJTs9s,KSJT7s 63.85% 382,860 530

Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: AdQs6s
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AsJsJc8c 36.04% 215,970 498
66**,QQ**,KsJTs*,KsJT9s,KJTs8s,KSJT7s,AQKsTs,AQJT 63.96% 383,532 498

is it correct as i write btw? the simulator doesnt iterpret my notation in some funny way?
when u rite KsJTs9 it will take all combos of KsTs that has a J and 9 in them?

Re: 2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r
 

i couldnt write in all the combos in one simulation.


anyway is anyone ever c/r here and folding with a set? having put in half their money? and getting huge odds on call?

Re: 2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r
 

against only the draws u have very good equity though:

Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: AdQs6s
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AsJsJc8c 73.10% 435,614 5,956
KsJTs*,KsJT9s,KsJT8s,KJTs9s,KJTs8s 26.90% 158,430 5,956

Re: 2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r
 

Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: AdQs6s
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AsJsJc8c 32.55% 195,292 0
AQKsTs 67.45% 404,708 0

Re: 2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r
 

is there an omaha stove?

Re: 2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r
 

yes. twodimes.net is one. try using google to find the right one for you.

Re: 2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r
 

twodimes is a simulator not a stove.

try http://www.propokertools.com/

u can write QQ**,66** for all QQxx and 66xx hands etc.

Re: 2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r
 

[ QUOTE ]
twodimes is a simulator not a stove.

try http://www.propokertools.com/

u can write QQ**,66** for all QQxx and 66xx hands etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew it wasnt a stove, but I wanted the guy to go find it himself. It is annoying when people post question in the forum that are basic to answer with google.

Re: 2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r
 

That stove range isn't very good at all. Basically, if villain plays KJxx and KTxx with spades even occasionally here, it changes the equities dramatically as we have a huge edge over those hands and there represented much more heavily among villain's possible hands than KJT hands are. Also, we're missing some basic KJT hands like KKJT and KJTT.

With the range listed, villain has a made hand probably &gt; 90% of the time whereas IRL, I'd expect it to be somewhere between 50% and 70%.

Re: 2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r
 

like i said u cant write in every possible combo since u run out of space.


make your own range instead then and post it.
now i took away AAxx because we have an A and took away 66 as well, hell prob play most QQxx but just very good 66xx(like doublepairs or 3straights)
so its QQ and a lot of draws, even some weaker ones.




Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: AdQs6s
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AsJsJc8c 46.15% 276,118 1,544
QQ**,KsJTs*,KsJT9s,KJTs8s,KJTs9s,AKsQTs,KJT* 53.85% 322,338 1,544

Re: 2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r
 

chaning the KJTx without spades for 66xx changs things considerably though:

Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: AdQs6s
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AsJsJc8c 36.15% 216,609 525
QQ**,KsJTs*,KsJT9s,KJTs8s,KJTs9s,AKsQTs,66** 63.85% 382,866 525

Re: 2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r
 

If we all agree that a call's bad, a shove and a fold are breakeven at 41.6% equity. Considering the range with 46% equity looks more correct than the range with 36% equity and we do get a fold at least occasionally, I think a shove's the play, but it's close enough that I couldn't fault a fold too much.

Re: 2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r
 

[ QUOTE ]
If we all agree that a call's bad, a shove and a fold are breakeven at 41.6% equity. Considering the range with 46% equity looks more correct than the range with 36% equity and we do get a fold at least occasionally, I think a shove's the play, but it's close enough that I couldn't fault a fold too much.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your argument, but the deciding factors for me were that (1) I thought I had close to zero fold equity and (2) I thought, due to him possibly not being a regular, that he might "overplay" his made hands ignoring the fact that I could easily have the nuts. So, I ended up folding. I still think it's very very close, and I sort of wish I had pushed so that I would have seen his hand (and hopefully suck out).