The Well: Tom Bayes
 

OK, I've fallen down the well. I'll take questions for the rest of today (Super Bowl Sunday). I probably won't answer questions during the game and my answers will probably be grumpy if da Bears lose.

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

ok ok ok:
Ditka versus....a hurricane. who wins?
ok, lets say the hurricane was called "Hurricane Ditka"?
http://krissimmons.com/videos/images...lyeDabears.gif

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

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ok ok ok:
Ditka versus....a hurricane. who wins?
ok, lets say the hurricane was called "Hurricane Ditka"?


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Well, a hurricane wouldn't be named after Ditka. A blizzard, yes, but not a hurricane. So obviously Ditka beats the hurricane [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Actually I'm still kind of mad at Ditka for not getting Sweetness in the endzone in Super Bowl XX and for his less than masterful coaching job with that team the next couple of seasons. We should have been the dynasty of the 80s, not a one-hit wonder.

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

Who are you, where do you play, what do you play, what limits, bla bla bla.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

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Who are you, where do you play, what do you play, what limits, bla bla bla.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

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Who: I'm a 37 year old bachelor. I teach college stats for a living in Kentucky.

Where: Live, my "home" B&M room is Harrah's riverboat in Metropolis, Illinois. I don't like that room because it only has 4 tables and spreads 4/8 limit and 1/2 NL holdem. I occasionally make trips to Tunica. I've never been to Vegas but I hope to fix that this year.

What: I'm a jack-of-all-trades and master of none. I play lots of games and most of my play is low buy-in online tournaments. My favorite game is five-card draw. I like almost all poker games. NLHE isn't my favorite, but I don't mind it. I'd say my least favorite game is omaha high, mainly because limit omaha high sucks and I suck at PLO.

Online I'm mostly playing tourneys in the $3-$10 range or cash games at the $1/$2 to $2/$4 level. I notoriously play below my bankroll. I was intending on trying to play higher in 2007, but with all the recent troubles I've pulled most of my money off the internet and I'm just going to amuse myself with little MTTs as long as I can.

Live, I play mostly holdem because that's all I have ready access to. I'll play limit holdem up to 10/20 and NLHE up to 2/5 if the game has a couple of donks. I'll play limit omaha/8 or stud instead when I have the chance. I'd love to play a small stakes mixed game live.

I'm also notorious for seeking out the most obscure forms of poker online and playing them. I used to play the B2B network a lot because they had draw tournaments and unusual games like sökö and Telesina. I'd like to play more Badugi-in my limited experience I think it could surpass 2-7 TDL in popularity. The little Badugi tournaments at Planet Poker this week have been very soft [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

When did you start playing poker, live/online or otherwise?

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

Why don't you and some of the other posters in the Other Poker forum get together and write a 5CD book that goes beyond the Weisenburg articles? I'd buy it. You can write the chapter on tourney play.

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

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Why don't you and some of the other posters in the Other Poker forum get together and write a 5CD book that goes beyond the Weisenburg articles? I'd buy it. You can write the chapter on tourney play.

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You and 15 other people. I hear Kinkos has a buy 10 get 1 free deal right now. j/k

No offense, but there is no market for this. I was talking with Howard at the Gamblers Book Store the other day (he will talk to anyone with ears, he has diarrhea of the mouth but is a sweetheart of a man) when he suddenly decared what books were missing in the market that his customers are always demanding. Things like tournament management, how to set up your own home game, crap like that. I asked him about some odd games like modern 5 card draw and TD - he actually said nobody ever asks about those games - unfortunately proof from the grandpapa of gambling books that there is no market.

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

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When did you start playing poker, live/online or otherwise?

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I learned how to play draw and stud from my great-uncle when I was a teenager, but I never played seriously until about 4 years ago. I was in grad school in the mid-late 1990s and luckily was unaware of IRC Poker or online poker, as I might not have gotten through school so quickly [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

In either late 2002 or early 2003 I had "learned" about holdem and online poker and started at Paradise Poker. I was reading a book on Bayesian stats earlier my first day online, thus the "Tom Bayes" nickname. I deposited $100 and played $0.50/$1 limit holdem. I was terrible and went through a couple of deposits.

I figured out that I'd better either learn how to play decently or quit. I found stuff like 2+2 and RGP on the Internet and got some books and started becoming halfway competent. My first time playing in a casino was in June 2003. Some friends and I were spending a "bachelor's" weekend in the Memphis area with a guy getting married. In addition to partying on Beale Street and going to Al Green's church, we spent a night in Tunica. I played some 4/8 limit at the Grand and had a winning night. I played a cheap live tourney the next day and got AA cracked early.

I didn't really get into tourneys until the end of 2003 when I left Paradise and started playing a lot at UB and Stars. I really liked Stars because the micro tourneys were a cheap and fun way to learn how to play games like omaha and stud and high-low. One of my first final table in a MTT was a $1 Stud/8 at Stars in late 2003. I finished 2nd and played like a real pussy HU. Somewhere in the archives I made a post about it and some dude named Fossilman told me to play more aggressively [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I stumbled across Planet Poker in early 2004. I had gotten Super System and decided I wanted to play draw and lowball, and Planet had some games. I did well in their little tournaments and found that I had more of a knack for draw games than flop or stud games. I also tend to like the more obscure in life-that goes with my taste in music, movies, books, etc. as well.

In 2005 and part of 2006, I played a lot at B2B, particularly PL draw tournaments and some of the unique games like sökö. Currently, I'm playing mostly at Stars, sometimes at Full Tilt or Planet (I still have a bit of a soft spot for that dinky little site).

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

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Why don't you and some of the other posters in the Other Poker forum get together and write a 5CD book that goes beyond the Weisenburg articles? I'd buy it. You can write the chapter on tourney play.

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As *TT* said, this is the smallest of niche markets. Hell, Mike Weisenberg has hardly published any draw or lowball articles in CardPlayer in a couple of years, since that magazine became nothing but articles for newbies and puff pieces glorifying the donkament player du jour.

I did write something up several months ago that I shared with a few people, but I never tried to polish it up for 2+2 Magazine, mostly because I'm selfish and don't want everyone to know how I play [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

Yeah you wrote it. and i still school you today.

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

Why don't you play 5CD ring games?

Do you think that someone could play draw for a living?

Do you think that draw will become popular again?

Do you think badugi will become popular?

You vs. Redskelt, who wins and how badly?

Can you play razz for a living?

Why don't you play more stud?

Can you teach me to play stud for a living?

Can you just give me some money, dude?

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

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Why don't you play 5CD ring games?

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I like tournament poker better. I like the "play until you win or your chips are gone" format of tournaments. Winning a poker tournament is more fun than anything I can do in a cash game. I'm better at tourneys than ring games.

That being said, cash games are probably a truer test of poker skill and a better place to make consistent money.

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Do you think that someone could play draw for a living?

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I don't think there are enough draw games at a high enough level to make a decent living off of them exclusively.

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Do you think that draw will become popular again?

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No [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] It will remain a niche game. Holdem is a much better game for casual players and fish, which in turn makes holdem a much better game for the sharks, which leaves draw to poker weirdos like me.

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Do you think badugi will become popular?

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No [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] It will remain a niche game.

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You vs. Redskelt, who wins and how badly?

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I don't know who Redskelt is.

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Can you play razz for a living?

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The answer is probably similar to draw in that there won't be enough juicy games at a high enough level to be able to play razz (exclusively) on a professional basis. If I had made the decision to try to play poker professionally or semi-professionally, I would have to have made a lot of different decisions. Instead of indulging in a wide variety of games, which I found interesting and entertaining and mildly profitable, I would have concentrated on a narrow fish-filled niche. In my case, I'd probably have concentrated on NLHE SNGs, but that would have been a boring grind, so I didn't do it.

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Why don't you play more stud?

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I like draw more and flop games are easier to multi-table. I like to usually play 2-4 MTTs at once and it's hard to play stud well when you are constantly looking away to look at another table.


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Can you teach me to play stud for a living?

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LOL.

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Can you just give me some money, dude?

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Check your Neteller account for my p2p transfer to you.

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

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You vs. Redskelt, who wins and how badly?

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I don't know who Redskelt is.


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This guy. You exist in the comments.

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

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You vs. Redskelt, who wins and how badly?

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I don't know who Redskelt is.


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This guy. You exist in the comments.

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Oh yeah. Forgot about him. I have no idea who would win a game of HU draw. I hope he's managing his roll better.

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

Say morev about stud

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

Tom,

I have noticed you doing well in some of the triple draw MTTs on stars. (And its hard not to do well in those [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]) But what strategy adjustments do you think are necessary for duece tournys? Also, what do you think Negreanu got wrong in SS2 (if anything), and what would you add if you were updating his chapter?

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

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We should have been the dynasty of the 80s, not a one-hit wonder.

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Montana. Rice. Need I say more?

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

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Say morev about stud

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Well, stud is not my primary game. My records show that I'm better at stud high than either razz or stud/8. My split-pot game performances were down in 2006 from previous years; either others are getting less clueless at hi-low and/or I need to reread Zee.

I've done pretty well in stud high tournaments basically playing very TAG-pounding with premium pairs and avoiding most drawing hands. I probably need to get better at knowing when to dump my big one pair hands and identifying the right draws. I actually find the later part of stud tourneys easier to play because most of the players left will be kind of weak-tight and let you steal antes and are easier to put on a hand.

I'd play more stud live if it was offered at my nearest casino. Unfortunately, I only get to play live on the rare times (a few times a year) I'm in Evansville or Tunica. It's usually grumpy old person 1-5 spread limit and no one really wants to play-they just want to bet $1, check 3 times, and tell dumb stories. I had a great time once playing 1-5 stud in the middle of the night at the Horseshoe in Tunica with a bunch of drunk young guys. Everyone was betting $5 and were actually making plays and it was fun. I was the old guy at the table and played table nit by betting $4 instead of $5 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I think sökö and Telesina are unknown gems that people would enjoy. PL betting makes sense in these games and it gives fish the illusion that it's a good idea to chase while giving good players the tools to really punish them.

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

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Tom,

I have noticed you doing well in some of the triple draw MTTs on stars. (And its hard not to do well in those [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]) But what strategy adjustments do you think are necessary for duece tournys? Also, what do you think Negreanu got wrong in SS2 (if anything), and what would you add if you were updating his chapter?

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Most "adjustments" are geared towards how the typical 2-7 tourney player plays as opposed to the cash game regulars. My experience has shown me that most of the semi-decent tourney players (not the real donks) play very straight-forward and are always trying to make the nuts and miss lots of value bets and rarely snow and/or bluff. I have less success picking off rough value bets and bluffs in tourneys than cash games. If you pat with a rough 8 or a nine and someone bets into you, you are almost always beaten.

Some of the tourney players won't bluff even when it is their only hope. I saw a hand (I was not involved) where 2 players drew 1 on the final draw and checked it down. The OOP player showed down a six-high straight flush (!) and lost to the other guy who paired his seven. I think you really have to bet your straight flush to give yourself a hope to steal the pot. Along those lines, too many people draw 1 to straights and keep those sixes in their hand and kill themselves [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I haven't read Negreanu's chapter in several months. My primary source of 2-7 material is here. Mark Gritter knows more about the mathematics of triple draw lowball than probably anyone else on the planet. 2461Badugi has played a ton, against everyone from complete idiots who don't know the rules to experts HU, and has a wealth of experience to share. Posters like DeathDonkey and *TT* give us different perspectives on the LAG and TAG way to play. *TT* really hates sixes and I believe a TD tourney player should really hate them as well.

Oh, and finally, I have to admit that I believe 2-7 TDL is actually a variant of poker that is not terribly well suited to tourney play. Notice that the size of these tourneys has really fallen off. I think Stars would find a larger audience for NL Kansas City lowball. That's an awesome tourney game. I played a bit on GamesGrid but that site had no player base.

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

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Most "adjustments" are geared towards how the typical 2-7 tourney player plays as opposed to the cash game regulars. My experience has shown me that most of the semi-decent tourney players (not the real donks) play very straight-forward and are always trying to make the nuts and miss lots of value bets and rarely snow and/or bluff.


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I agree. Most of the play is incredibly passive. But I have seen some of passive but otherwise solid players doing well nut-peddling, whereas its usually more hit or miss with my higher variance style. My opinion though about the adjustments is that basically its fine to play my normal high variance game big stacked, or short stacked, but with around 10-15 big bets I think its best to play just a tad more conservatively- which just means tightening up ever so slightly in sb vs bb hands, and reigning in the river value-betting range a hair too. But somewhat paradoxically when you do decide to play a hand with 10-15 bets, its better to 3-bet pre than to call, just to try and get it heads up.
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I have less success picking off rough value bets and bluffs in tourneys than cash games. If you pat with a rough 8 or a nine and someone bets into you, you are almost always beaten.


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Absolutely

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*TT* really hates sixes and I believe a TD tourney player should really hate them as well.


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6s are the devil!
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Oh, and finally, I have to admit that I believe 2-7 TDL is actually a variant of poker that is not terribly well suited to tourney play. Notice that the size of these tourneys has really fallen off.


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My experience has been thats its fairly easy to build a stack early, but then when the blinds start getting high you are going to have to win some key hands. In both of the ones that I have have won I was either reduced to nothing or arrived at the final table with no chips and came back. When it gets HU with both players having 10-15 big bets, it is a total crap shoot.
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I think Stars would find a larger audience for NL Kansas City lowball. That's an awesome tourney game. I played a bit on GamesGrid but that site had no player base.

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I played in a few of those with you and you always outlasted me. It does seem a little surprising that stars doesn't offer KCL since they offer NL and PL TDL.

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

Talk more about soko. I like it a lot because I like stud and it has the added element of four-straights/flushes making AKs a monster, whereas in five stud it's not that good against, say, 22. Do you think that people would play soko and five stud more if they could.

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

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Talk more about soko. I like it a lot because I like stud and it has the added element of four-straights/flushes making AKs a monster, whereas in five stud it's not that good against, say, 22. Do you think that people would play soko and five stud more if they could.

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Regular five card stud won't make a comeback. There's just not enough action in this game. I tried it as a limit game at Paradise a few years back and I found it so boring unless there was a terrible donator in the game.

I think sökö would be a bit more popular (but still no bigger than other niche games like triple draw or badugi) if it was spread online anywhere besides the B2B Network. The game is usually played pot-limit so there's a decent bluffing element to the game. Also, the four-straights and four-flushes make certain hands (like high suited connectors) more playable and others (like small pairs and unsuited Ax, Kx hands) less playable than in standard 5CS. My experience in small tourneys at B2B was that a lot of bad players would call far too much to chase those hands and a surprising number of players would pay off when they were board-locked. I haven't played a hand of sökö since B2B banned Americans.

Here's an old thread about sökö from about 2 years ago when Al Mirpuri helped me out. I kind of miss the game.

Telesina is another sicko stud variant. It's played with a 32 card deck (stripped of deuces through sixes). The game proceeds as 5CS, but a community 6th street card is dealt at the end and you make your best 5 card hand. I only ever got to play this game in freerolls, but it was pretty volatile. A lot of that was because it was impossible to keep some people from seeing all six cards.

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

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Posters like DeathDonkey and *TT* give us different perspectives on the LAG and TAG way to play. *TT* really hates sixes and I believe a TD tourney player should really hate them as well.

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I think my hate for 6's is a bit exagerated, there is a time and a place for everything. For example I'll open with 236 in the CO without fail in every game I have ever played, and I'll call in the BB with that hand too. In the small blind its a bit more situation dependant, I have been known to dump it because I felt its going to be too hard to play out of position but that isn't a common scenario. I will however dump something like 26 in the BB to a raise, or drop the 6 if its limped to me in the BB and I have a hand like 36xxx. 6's are dangerous, but not deadly.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

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I've never been to Vegas

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this is unacceptable.

Re: The Well: Tom Bayes
 

I'm out of the well.