5 Card draw: Aces and four to a flush - what to do?
 

One more tourney hand, fixed limit. And at the end a general question on playing Aces.

I am second to act and I got AA943 with four clubs.
I raise. My thought process is:
- If I take down the pot right away, great!
- If I get reraised I can call and try to hit the flush.
- If I get called by one of the blinds I can see what they do and then decide to either keep my aces or draw to the flush.

Unfortunately the button called. He was a weak player so I figured he either had a big pair, weak two pair or a draw.

Now I am first to act. What shall I do? I have no clue at all.

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Question no.2: I have AAxxx on the button and I raise. The Big Blind calls and draws 3. Which obviously means my aces are good before the draw. Now should I draw 3 as well to catch a third ace (which I might not need) or draw less cards to make my hand look stronger than it is?
If I draw 3 I give my opponent the chance to represent two pair or trips so if he bets I got a tough decision. How do you handle this?

Re: 5 Card draw: Aces and four to a flush - what to do?
 

No.1: Keep the aces. You've got two of the three options beaten, and in the event you're behind to 2 pair, you're 4-1 to improve.

No.2: I'd still draw three because I want to give myself the best chance to pot the BB if he improves to trips/big 2 pair and we catch a third ace.

It'd be tough for him to bet anything less than aces or kings up, but if he does and you don't improve, you're beaten.

Re: 5 Card draw: Aces and four to a flush - what to do?
 

No.1 - forget about draw, aces only!
No.2 - I agree with SoCalPat, but want to add: if BB chek you have to bet him even if you don't improve.

Re: 5 Card draw: Aces and four to a flush - what to do?
 

This is absolutely correct. According to theory, you need
to sometimes value bet AA in this spot. For example, if you
consider the models in "The Mathematics of Poker", by Chen
and Ankenman, in this situation (big blind versus button),
when both players have drawn three, the distribution of the
hands are very close and so can be approximated by the [0,1]
toy games discussed in the book.

You wouldn't be far wrong to value bet AAK and AAQ from the
button and you will have to sometimes bluff with 99 or 88 if
you are playing "well".

The TMOP models are useful not only in this spot, but also
in two other scenarios (both only two players left in the
pot):

1) capped pot with two pat hands
2) capped pot in blind versus button/aggressive cutoff where
both players have drawn two to trips

In these scenarios, the toy games in TMOP can be used to
approximate optimal play.

Big blind bets
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If the big blind bets, you need to call almost routinely
with AA on the button because if you don't call with AA,
what will you call with? If you don't at least call with a
frequency of 9/13 in this spot from the button, the big
blind can play exploitively by bluffing with a frequency
greater than that of the game theoretical bluffing frequency
and thus profit from the insufficient calling frequency.

Assuming the button will open with 99A or better and calls
in accordance to game theory, and draws three to all pairs,
if you are calling with the top 0.568 of unimproved pairs,
this translates to KK and almost any pair of queens. Of
course, in practice, the big blind may not be bluffing often
but against a big blind that bluffs close to optimally (or
even a bit more!), you need to call with QQXxy or better or
you will simply get "run over".