25NL: Str8 Flush Draw...Right Play?
 

Just sat down at the table and had no reads. Suited Q,T limp from MP is questionable, but with one limper already in figured I might be able to see a cheap flop. Anyway, once the flop came, do you see any ways to play this differently? Thanks in advance.

FullTiltPoker $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em

UTG+1 ($48.50)
UTG+2 ($16.10)
Hero ($24.75)
MP2 ($23.65)
CO ($18.95)
Button ($9.55)
SB ($7.35)
BB ($29.70)
UTG ($31.90)

Dealt to Hero [Qc Tc]

UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, 2 folds, BB checks

*** FLOP *** [9c Qh Kc]

BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $1.25, MP2 calls $1.25, 2 folds, UTG raises to $8.75, Hero raises to $24.50, and is all in, MP2 folds, UTG calls $15.75

Re: 25NL: Str8 Flush Draw...Right Play?
 

If this were a raised pot (and you somehow found yourself on this flop), I like it a lot more. In a limped pot, with UTG check-raising flop, I think you're going to see KQ/JcTc/99/AcJc here a lot. If we stove vs this range, it looks like this.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

39,600 games 0.005 secs 7,920,000 games/sec

Board: 9c Kc Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.775% 44.32% 01.45% 17551 576.00 { QcTc }
Hand 1: 54.225% 52.77% 01.45% 20897 576.00 { QQ+, 99, AQs, AcJc, KQs, JTs, AQo, KQo, JTo }

I threw in overpairs and AQ for good measure (This could be a failed limp/reraise) but you're behind this range. After the checkraise (which is pretty big), I think it's safe to assume your FE is non-existent. By shoving, you're risking
$24.50 to win $28.35 so I think the push is marginally -EV if this range is evenly weighted. IMO, though, it's gonna be 2pair/straight/set/better FD more often than AQ/AK, so in theory, I'd fold.


In a game, though, I'd push because I love semi-bluff combodraws. LOL

Re: 25NL: Str8 Flush Draw...Right Play?
 

I think this is ok but high variance. Variance is a good friend of mine though.
I agree with Rapid though, in a raised money and/or with a little bit more dead money in the pot this would be even better...

Re: 25NL: Str8 Flush Draw...Right Play?
 

Thank you for the good feedback. In case you're curious, he showed up with T,J for the flopped straight and my draw never got there. Hi variance indeed [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Thanks again.

Re: 25NL: Str8 Flush Draw...Right Play?
 

You have zero fold equity here. He may occasionally show up with AJc but you are almost always up against 2pair+. In an unraised pot I think folding would actually be the best play in terms of immediate EV.