AA facing c/r from mulit-tabling TAG
 

Villain seems like a mulit-tabling TAG. He is playing 18/16 over 90ish hands, and he should view me as TAG at this point.

How do you weigh his range after his flop c/r?

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $30
BTN: $81.15
SB: $384.25
BB: $249.70
UTG: $234.20
Hero (MP): $224.85

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8</font>, 2 folds, SB calls $7, BB folds

Flop: ($18) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $14</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $42</font>, Hero ???

Re: AA facing c/r from mulit-tabling TAG
 

KQ AK i say he is on 30% of the time .... equity against = 24%
99 TT is on 30% of the time .... equity against = 2.4%
draw like nut flush or possible straight although i don't knwo if this player is calling with QJ in the blinds .. we will give him 30% .... equity against = 24%

Then the ohter 10 % i say maybe a bluff which may be high against this player so i may just discount it all together

Therefore not including our bluff we are getting almost 50% equity without accounting for any bluff percentage or anything ....

this is the type of range i may put him on

Re: AA facing c/r from mulit-tabling TAG
 

the draw percentage though of like 30% against this player may be a little high though depends on his AF

Re: AA facing c/r from mulit-tabling TAG
 

AK is unlikely for cold calling pf and I dont think he plays KQ this fast too often. So its a typical case of flipping against a draw (which could easily have a gutter or pair on this board) or dead against a set, two pair or even a straight sometimes - I fold. This isnt a good flop to bluff u for him. If he shows a propensity to play back at c-bets/overvalues top pair then obv either shove or call and get it in on blank turns.

Re: AA facing c/r from mulit-tabling TAG
 

I say you just drop it. Therere too many hands he couldve cold called out of the blinds that have you raped

Re: AA facing c/r from mulit-tabling TAG
 

probably a fold. since he probably reraises AK preflop and doesn't call with AXs

Re: AA facing c/r from mulit-tabling TAG
 

if your pushing your draws all-in here and he knows you would, then you should be pushing your AA all in here.

Re: AA facing c/r from mulit-tabling TAG
 

Wow at all the advice telling him to fold.

1 raise on a drawy flop and we insta muck aces.

A good tag probably 3 bets AK, KK, TT or 99 here.

I think a lot of his range will be draws or air.

If you re-raise your going to lose value from his bluffs with air and get called by hands that have you crushed or good draws.

I think you should call this in position and re-evaluate the turn.

Re: AA facing c/r from mulit-tabling TAG
 

With absolutely no redraw and this big c/r I'm inclined to fold it here. Calling to reev is ok too, shoving seems really bad against such a tight player.

Re: AA facing c/r from mulit-tabling TAG
 

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Villain seems like a mulit-tabling TAG. He is playing 18/16 over 90ish hands

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If this is his stats over a larger sample, I really think he has only low/mid pairs here and nothing else. Hard to say with just 90 hands tho.

He never has AK.
I think most TAG's 3-bet TT here.

I wonder if, other than 99, he might do this with lower pairs like


Kilillan says:
[ QUOTE ]
I say you just drop it. Therere too many hands he couldve cold called out of the blinds that have you raped

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that is kind what I was edging towards - but admitting to wanting to fold AA on a drawy flop feels like admitting you like s&amp;m.

Re: AA facing c/r from mulit-tabling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
Wow at all the advice telling him to fold.

1 raise on a drawy flop and we insta muck aces.

A good tag probably 3 bets AK, KK, TT or 99 here.

I think a lot of his range will be draws or air.

If you re-raise your going to lose value from his bluffs with air and get called by hands that have you crushed or good draws.

I think you should call this in position and re-evaluate the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is almost never bluffing on this flop, many TAGs dont 3bet 99 or TT on MP from the blinds, he could also have K10s or 109s and if he has a spade draw its most likely a hand like AsJs, KsQs, KsJs, 8s7s - all which r flipping against. This is an easy muck IMO. Versus a range of TT-99,AsJs,KsQs,KsJs,KTs,QJs,T9s,8s7s, we only have 21% equity, even if u include the odd times he plays KQ very fast here - it still does not make up enough equity to get it in. Whereas, if we had like AsJs or AsQs - wed have 41.5% equity versus that same range and therefore a shove is more profitable than with AA (in reply to other poster about shoving draws and AA here - btw, balancing ur range in ssnl is completely useless)

Re: AA facing c/r from mulit-tabling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wow at all the advice telling him to fold.

1 raise on a drawy flop and we insta muck aces.

A good tag probably 3 bets AK, KK, TT or 99 here.

I think a lot of his range will be draws or air.

If you re-raise your going to lose value from his bluffs with air and get called by hands that have you crushed or good draws.

I think you should call this in position and re-evaluate the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is almost never bluffing on this flop, many TAGs dont 3bet 99 or TT on MP from the blinds, he could also have K10s or 109s and if he has a spade draw its most likely a hand like AsJs, KsQs, KsJs, 8s7s - all which r flipping against. This is an easy muck IMO. Versus a range of TT-99,AsJs,KsQs,KsJs,KTs,QJs,T9s,8s7s, we only have 21% equity, even if u include the odd times he plays KQ very fast here - it still does not make up enough equity to get it in. Whereas, if we had like AsJs or AsQs - wed have 41.5% equity versus that same range and therefore a shove is more profitable than with AA (in reply to other poster about shoving draws and AA here - btw, balancing ur range in ssnl is completely useless)

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You have given him a pretty nice range.

I think it's far too weak and exploitable if we fold aces on a drawy flop IN POSITION for 1 raise.

At least we should be calling and seeing what happens on the turn.

Re: AA facing c/r from mulit-tabling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wow at all the advice telling him to fold.

1 raise on a drawy flop and we insta muck aces.

A good tag probably 3 bets AK, KK, TT or 99 here.

I think a lot of his range will be draws or air.

If you re-raise your going to lose value from his bluffs with air and get called by hands that have you crushed or good draws.

I think you should call this in position and re-evaluate the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is almost never bluffing on this flop, many TAGs dont 3bet 99 or TT on MP from the blinds, he could also have K10s or 109s and if he has a spade draw its most likely a hand like AsJs, KsQs, KsJs, 8s7s - all which r flipping against. This is an easy muck IMO. Versus a range of TT-99,AsJs,KsQs,KsJs,KTs,QJs,T9s,8s7s, we only have 21% equity, even if u include the odd times he plays KQ very fast here - it still does not make up enough equity to get it in. Whereas, if we had like AsJs or AsQs - wed have 41.5% equity versus that same range and therefore a shove is more profitable than with AA (in reply to other poster about shoving draws and AA here - btw, balancing ur range in ssnl is completely useless)

[/ QUOTE ]

You have given him a pretty nice range.

I think it's far too weak and exploitable if we fold aces on a drawy flop IN POSITION for 1 raise.

At least we should be calling and seeing what happens on the turn.

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I dunno if ur being sarcastic about the range since if ur not - we only have 21% equity and should insta-muck. Our equity against that range actually goes down on a 2d turn according to my pokerstove (which seems a bit odd considering all his draws but w/e) so calling to get it in on a blank turn is not a good option AND it assumes hes jamming blanks with his whole range. And lastly, stop thinking in terms of being exploitable, especiallly at SSNL, its not like he knows we folded aces and is going to run us over, or that we r likely to play him too too much anyways considering the huge player pool, and even if he did happen to think that we could be run over and started trying to push us around - u simply adjust his range accordingly. Thinking in terms of being exploitable is just dumb IMO, all u have to do is put him on a range and decide how to play according to that given range.

Re: AA facing c/r from mulit-tabling TAG
 

At this point of the hand, you are reaching a commitment threshold. Are you committed to this hand? my answer considering the information provided, is no. If you decide to make this call and reeval on the turn, you have created a pot over 50bb large. That is not the time to decide whether or not you want to be in the hand. If you decide to fly by the seat of your pants, you'll create large pots and oftentimes decide you want to abandon them. My answer here is that I am not committed nor do I want to commit to this hand. I'm shaking my head and clicking the fold button.