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-   -   AQo on the bubble (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=557876)

sm3k3ras 11-30-2007 10:03 AM

AQo on the bubble
 
Don't be harsh on me, this is my first post.
Why is calling here so terrible?
http://www.dualadesigns.nl/poker/hand.jpg

hirschi 11-30-2007 10:29 AM

Re: AQo on the bubble
 
depends on what range you ve set for the utg-pusher.

TruFloridaGator 11-30-2007 10:32 AM

Re: AQo on the bubble
 
He has 13.7 for the shover.

OP, we don't win enough vs that range and are eliminated when we lose.

IFoldPktOnes 11-30-2007 10:37 AM

Re: AQo on the bubble
 
When you bust out 4th you will lose ~1.5 times as much money (EV) than what you would gain by winning the all in. So you need ~60% equity, against his range you only have ~53% equity.

DCJ311 11-30-2007 10:38 AM

Re: AQo on the bubble
 
Looks like an ez call, what am I missing.

IFoldPktOnes 11-30-2007 10:39 AM

Re: AQo on the bubble
 
[ QUOTE ]
Looks like an ez call, what am I missing.

[/ QUOTE ]
The ranges assigned by the OP.

mattiesmat 11-30-2007 11:18 AM

Re: AQo on the bubble
 
Even when he shoves ATC it is -0.11!
Why?

Q.. 11-30-2007 11:28 AM

Re: AQo on the bubble
 
Because ICM cannot be thought or felt usually [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Here you just have to call imo though because situation would only get worse and this is your biggest ev possible in nearest rounds. With big stack ahead your pushing possibilities are little, and with 2 shortstacks behind your bb would be always pushed, and this is probably best hand in nearest hands.

If someone thinks we should fold where i wonder do you expect to gain +ev spots.

RexWoo 11-30-2007 12:23 PM

Re: AQo on the bubble
 
Q : calling is so bad here.

OP : also you can play with SB / BB calling ranges. If you set them to 0 or close, I suppose the call become a little better.

fanapathy 11-30-2007 12:32 PM

Re: AQo on the bubble
 
-3% ev is about as bad as it gets normally [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

You can't call here. You need a pair. How big depends on your read. AK is a fold. Readless you have to fold unless you specifically know he makes this shove with A-rag only I suppose.

This is super-important in SnGs. Examine ICM, why exactly it is like that, why you cannot call when you are confident you have the best hand, etc etc. ICM tells you your stack value in $ dollars in relation to the prizepool If you do the math on your own you'll have a revelation. Find an ICM calc, figure out $EV(call) and $EV(fold), calculate your hand against his range and see if folding is better than calling. Also recognize how pot odds can't be applied the way they would in cashgame or MTT (ICM does apply in MTT but not as much).

Instafold AK on the bubble if you have a good stack and you think villain is a steal but it's many BB to call. You'll achieve much better results.

Sorry if I repeat anything that's been said above which is likely.


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