30/60 tricky spot vs. opp w/ a lot of history
 

online 30/60 full ring.. opponent is somebody whom ive logged a ton of hands with.. mostly live hands, but some online and he has a general idea about my style. villain plays a very ABC generally tag style in full ring, however he obviously can switch it up but rarely gets out of line.

I raise MP w/ AcJh, MP calls, BB (villain) calls

flop Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

check, i bet, mp calls, bb calls

turn 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] check, i bet, mp calls, bb calls

river 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] bb bets???

im pretty sure MP is going to fold and is on a draw, or hes never folding a weak/mid Q.. how is this anything but a straight value bet from BB??

he knows im capable of making a fold against him and he probably knows that MP is weak just like I do.

is this a sickeningly good play by him or is this always a fold regardless?

Re: 30/60 tricky spot vs. opp w/ a lot of history
 

Qdxd seems likely, I think you can fold because there is no way he thinks you'll give him credit for backdooring you.

Re: 30/60 tricky spot vs. opp w/ a lot of history
 

Seems like a pretty standard call.

Re: 30/60 tricky spot vs. opp w/ a lot of history
 

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Qdxd seems likely, I think you can fold because there is no way he thinks you'll give him credit for backdooring you.

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Wouldn't an ABC player who just made a backdoor draw go for a check/raise here? His line makes no sense to me...unless Villain thinks that Hero bet Ace high twice on this board.

Re: 30/60 tricky spot vs. opp w/ a lot of history
 

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Wouldn't an ABC player who just made a backdoor draw go for a check/raise here? His line makes no sense to me...unless Villain thinks that Hero bet Ace high, or 66-TT, or JT-J8 twice on this board.

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Either call and expect to lose ~75% of the time (still a +ev call) or raise and turn your hand into a bluff, which might be more +ev since I think he has a weak Q here quite a bit. It just depends on whether he's bet/calling or bet/folding QT or Q8s here/. How fishy was the coldcaller? The worse the coldcaller plays, the more weak Q's bb likely has in his range.

The viability of turning your hand into a bluff depends on how tenacious a value bettor your are. If you would always raise QT+ on this river, a bluff is much more likely to work than it would if you only value raise 2 pair+

Re: 30/60 tricky spot vs. opp w/ a lot of history
 

i think raising is rediculous.. that turns a slightly marginal valued call into a spew when he calls/3-bets.. not to mention the guy behind

Re: 30/60 tricky spot vs. opp w/ a lot of history
 

He's bet/folding this river less than 12% of the time?