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-   -   How far will bonds go? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=557298)

DcifrThs 11-30-2007 02:26 PM

Re: How far will bonds go?
 
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U.S. has a 95% chance of hitting a recession within the next two quarters IMO. Bond markets are doing a much better job of pricing this in than the equity markets.

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define recession.

Barron

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The National Bureau of Economic Research is accepted as the official government determination of when a recession occurs. It is normally (but not always) two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. They do take other factors into consideration.

Recessions

Jimbo

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I wanted to get PRE's definition of recession...for betting purposes.

Barron

Jimbo 11-30-2007 02:31 PM

Re: How far will bonds go?
 
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I wanted to get PRE's definition of recession...for betting purposes.

Barron


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I understood that, but then you would need his definition of "real GDP" vs GDP and then another definition, then another. I thought it might help to agree on the generally accepted agency that defines the past economic climate clearly, concisely and consistently.

Jimbo

DcifrThs 11-30-2007 02:45 PM

Re: How far will bonds go?
 
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Barron,

I'm referring to the official definition, something of which we wouldn't know for sure until a couple of years down the road (as you know). I was considering creating a post as to why I think the odds of a recession at this point are 95% (I said within the next two quarters for theatrics to be honest, but I do still believe there'sd a 50% chance of one hitting that soon).

I find it hard to believe how any rational person at this point cannot see the odds of a recession occurring over the next 12 months as being at least 50%. I'm basing my opinion on an extensive amount of research and would be willing to argue with anyone who believes the other side of the argument to be true.

Edit: As for a wager, something small and friendly would be fine (I'll make a shorter-term bet such as the Dow losing at least 20% of its value over the next 12 months). I'm currently making a big bet through my investments, so anything big would be risky.

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i'd rather bet directly on the recession.

can we peg the recession indicator to 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth in the next X quarters where you pick X?

1:1 on the bet?

so far i'm about to be 0/1 on bets in this forum. i have 3 total outstanding (2 w/ gonebroke2 and 1 2/ Mr.Now which i'm about to lose) so i'm happy to take on more "2p2" exposure as it were [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

lemme know your thoughts.
Barron

JordanIB 11-30-2007 04:48 PM

Re: How far will bonds go?
 
Paging RedBean ---




Whoops, never mind...

Preem 12-01-2007 05:18 AM

Re: How far will bonds go?
 
[ QUOTE ]
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U.S. has a 95% chance of hitting a recession within the next two quarters IMO. Bond markets are doing a much better job of pricing this in than the equity markets.

[/ QUOTE ]
define recession.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]
The National Bureau of Economic Research is accepted as the official government determination of when a recession occurs. It is normally (but not always) two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. They do take other factors into consideration.
Recessions

Jimbo

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The interesting thing about recessions is that we don't know about them until after they have happened because it takes a while to gather GDP data.

Another interesting thing about recessions is that the media periodically polls the public, "Do you think we're in a recession?"

Recessions are pretty cut and dried and are not the result of a popular vote.


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