Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

Can anyone tell me how unlikely this is?
This comes from almost exactly 2/3 of 5-10 and 1/3 of 10-20.
This really feels up there for futility to me.
Yes I'm running on average 75 buyins below expectation in less then 75,000 hands.

http://i227.photobucket.com/albums/d...r/mynetrun.jpg

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

sick

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

omg sooicide!!

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

Mine probably looks worse than this if i kept track.

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

Can anyone tell me if poker EV will work for cryptologic sites?

I cant seem to get it to work

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

Well, the last 4 month or so (around 100k hands) I am experiensing something similar. I have been playing 2/4NL as a steaking deal and ran about 25-30 buy-inns below expectation in 50k hands or so. And It really felt that I was getting screwed by setups way more then the other way. As a result - massive swings and lots of stress both for me and the steaker.
And I was grinding 50NL for 35k hands or so, with a total of 15 buy-inns below in luck and sick, sick setups.
And around 15k hands of random s&g's/shortstacking/etc, with about -10 in allin luck.
So yeah life is pretty [censored]...

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

can you morans please stop talking about yourselves? this is mastr's thread ok

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

p.s. [censored] sick bro!

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

man u lost 90k in 75k hands? you must be bad!!!!

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

seriously though you need coaching or something????????

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

obv just kidding that just sucks

just concentrate on how you are so due

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

spam much gp.

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

[ QUOTE ]
spam much gp.

[/ QUOTE ]
short answer:no

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

[ QUOTE ]
spam much gp.

[/ QUOTE ]
long answer: hell no

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

there's almost no question mine is worse, don't mean to take away from your unfortunateness op, but i can't get a lot of hands to load into my ev grapher

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

aejones i can 100% guarantee u i run worse than u. oh i also have no proof. but 100% guarantee though

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

Argh. That graph shows nothing, you need to have the blue line too.

The graph could be the result of bad luck, or equally that you keep putting the money in as an underdog. Running 75 buyins under expectation is pretty sick though.

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

[ QUOTE ]
Argh. That graph shows nothing, you need to have the blue line too.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP's graph used the "net run" line. It shows the difference between his red and blue lines.

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

I'm calling shenanigans on this graph. I'm betting OP created a separate database and exported to it only the hands which he lost, thus guaranteeing bad luck. He has used the net run graph to conceal the fact that the blue line is also hugely negative.

Edit: OK not only the hands that he lost since the graph goes positive at the beginning. But it'll be something like that.

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

this is gross.

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

disgusting bl.

=/

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

this sucks hard

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

i don't believe anyone can run this bad, i'm with ChrisV

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Argh. That graph shows nothing, you need to have the blue line too.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP's graph used the "net run" line. It shows the difference between his red and blue lines.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ty, I didn't know about that feature.

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

Which site is this?

It seems super unlikely you ran this bad w/o errors in pokerEV, i dunno.

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

This is all full tilt with some stars, I can switch to the standard blue green format if you guys really want, though there's really no difference. No errors in the pokerEV, have checked multiple times.

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

actual vs expected cuz why the hell not

Swongs, they are one thing???

http://i227.photobucket.com/albums/d...edWinnings.jpg

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone tell me if poker EV will work for cryptologic sites?

I cant seem to get it to work

[/ QUOTE ]

check use all sites

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

ugh...

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e3...riday-damn.jpg

Also, good use of the word "mondo." Totally tubular! Cowabunga!

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

Heh. Well if you didn't fake up the graph, then God truly hates and despises you.

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

I played AYSO soccer when I was a kid. Mondo can only mean one thing:

http://www.jelsert.com/images/products/main_mondo.jpg

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

[censored] man, thats rough - wtf

what site?

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

mastr I really dont want to [censored] all over your beat or anything...

But it looks like there is some error that misestimates your equity. You can see the difference between red and green basically constantly increases. For example, if the error amounted to 1ptbb/100 difference, then it would constantly increase.

That, or God has decided to take a massive crap all over you.

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

no its been separately checked and everything, its me being massively crapped on.

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

blue green red graph plz

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is all full tilt with some stars, I can switch to the standard blue green format if you guys really want, though there's really no difference. No errors in the pokerEV, have checked multiple times.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not aware of any errors, but damn it looks suspicious.

[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone tell me how unlikely this is?

[/ QUOTE ]

I ran it through a binomial calculator(java). Assuming a full buyin for each all-in and average 50% equity(i.e. 0 expectation), the probability of running bad in 75 extra all-ins is around 0.00005, or 1 in 20,000 [n=1500, p=0.5, x is fewer than 675]. Include the effects of variable pot sizes and it's probably around 1 in 10,000 or so. In other words, a swing this big will happen to around 2-10 BBVers a year. If you have 60% average equity instead of 50 going in, the swing becomes more unlikely...about 1 in 30K vs 1 in 20K. This is just an estimate (you can't calculate it without doing a sim on your exact equities), but it's in the same ballpark of probability.

Assuming it's not an error, this is just [censored] brutal man.

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is all full tilt with some stars, I can switch to the standard blue green format if you guys really want, though there's really no difference. No errors in the pokerEV, have checked multiple times.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not aware of any errors, but damn it looks suspicious.

[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone tell me how unlikely this is?

[/ QUOTE ]

I ran it through a binomial calculator(java). Assuming a full buyin for each all-in and average 50% equity(i.e. 0 expectation), the probability of running bad in 75 extra all-ins is around 0.00005, or 1 in 20,000 [n=1500, p=0.5, x is fewer than 675]. Include the effects of variable pot sizes and it's probably around 1 in 10,000 or so. In other words, a swing this big will happen to around 2-10 BBVers a year. If you have 60% average equity instead of 50 going in, the swing becomes more unlikely...about 1 in 30K vs 1 in 20K.

Assuming it's not an error, this is just [censored] brutal man.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that is a good post, statistics ftw.

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

holy crap thats unlucky


Whenever I see this I always wonder about all the players here that never show how lucky they run and dont post it cuz they treasure their fanboys too much

Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
 

hey u play the game
dont ask us