Pooh Bah Post. Flop min-bet Theorem
 

There has been some discussion about this lately. I've seen 3 or 4 post where the op wondered what caused villains to make such a strange bet. So here is the Theorem.

A minbet (1bb or 2bb) on the flop by OOP villain after Hero is the preflop aggressor = weak hand, straight or flush draw.

I filtered my pokertracker database for hands that I Reraised on the flop since this is a view that I have held from early on in my career. I included hands where my read was wrong, but as you can see from the first 17 hands in my databse the read was wrong 1 time. If someone wants more proof I will continue digging, but I think this is pretty good evidence that the theory holds true.


Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $30
Mike Kelley (UTG+2): $55.90
MP1: $117.90
MP2: $64.60
CO: $51.60
BTN: $53.95
SB: $10.75
BB: $76.25
UTG: $208.30

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (UTG+2)
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 folds, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $2.50</font>, 6 folds, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($5.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $0.50</font>, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $5</font>, UTG calls $4.50

Turn: ($15.75) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $0.50</font>, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $15</font>, UTG folds

Results: $16.75 Pot ($0.80 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and WON $15.95 (+$7.95 NET)


This is a hand I didn’t win but it supports my premise that the weak bet means weak hand or a draw….

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $15.45
Mike Kelley (BB): $49.25
UTG: $29.25
UTG+1: $63.20
UTG+2: $8.60
MP1: $11.10
MP2: $49.50
CO: $20.20
BTN: $11.25

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (BB)
7 folds, SB calls $0.25, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $2</font>, SB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $1</font>, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $5</font>, SB calls $4

Turn: ($14) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $1.50</font>, Mike Kelley calls $1.50

River: ($17) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $1</font>, Mike Kelley calls $1

Results: $19 Pot ($0.90 Rake)
SB showed A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (two pair, Queens and Eights) and WON $18.10 (+$8.60 NET)
Mike Kelley showed A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Queens) and LOST (-$9.50 NET)


Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $4.40
BB: $9.45
UTG: $40.75
UTG+1: $24.75
UTG+2: $20.75
MP1: $22.70
MP2: $29.20
Mike Kelley (CO): $31.45
BTN: $4.65

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (CO)
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.25, 2 folds, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $1.50</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls $1.25, UTG+2 folds

Flop: ($3.60) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $0.50</font>, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $4</font>, UTG folds

Results: $4.60 Pot ($0.20 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and WON $4.40 (+$2.40 NET)


I missed that the inside straight draw came in on this one, but notice that villain had a weak hand and bet weakly on the flop as a blocker.

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Mike Kelley (BTN): $24.65
SB: $33.15
BB: $4.15
UTG: $7.10
UTG+1: $21.85
UTG+2: $11.05
MP1: $16.80
MP2: $50.25
CO: $29.40

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (BTN)
3 folds, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $0.50</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $2.50</font>, 2 folds, MP1 calls $2

Flop: ($5.35) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP1 bets $0.50</font>, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $5</font>, MP1 calls $4.50

Turn: ($15.35) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP1 bets $0.50</font>, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $16.75</font>, MP1 calls $8.80 and is All-In

River: ($33.95) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $33.95 Pot ($1.65 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and LOST (-$16.80 NET)
MP1 showed A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (a straight, Ace to Five) and WON $32.30 (+$15.50 NET)


Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $26.40
BB: $15
UTG: $11.75
Mike Kelley (UTG+1): $26.15
MP: $14.65
CO: $9.80
BTN: $27.70

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (UTG+1)
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $1.25</font>, MP calls $1.25, 4 folds, UTG calls $1

Flop: ($4.10) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $0.25</font>, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $4</font>, 2 folds

Results: $4.60 Pot ($0.20 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and WON $4.40 (+$2.90 NET)


Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $7.65
MP1: $30.70
Mike Kelley (MP2): $54.70
CO: $28.75
BTN: $48.30
SB: $31.40
BB: $55.25
UTG: $63.55
UTG+1: $84.70

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (MP2)
4 folds, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $2</font>, 2 folds, SB calls $1.75, BB folds

Flop: ($4.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $0.50</font>, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $4</font>, SB folds

Results: $5.50 Pot ($0.25 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and WON $5.25 (+$2.75 NET)


Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

MP2: $28.35
Mike Kelley (CO): $52.40
BTN: $42.95
SB: $28.70
BB: $24.60
UTG: $4.20
UTG+1: $20.15
UTG+2: $105.20
MP1: $50

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (CO)
UTG calls $0.50, 4 folds, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $2.50</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $2.25, 2 folds

Flop: ($6) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $0.50</font>, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $5.50</font>, SB folds

Results: $7 Pot ($0.30 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and WON $6.70 (+$3.70 NET)


And one where it didn’t work.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

CO: $109.10
BTN: $45.05
SB: $29
Mike Kelley (BB): $57.05
UTG: $50
UTG+1: $47.25
UTG+2: $9.25
MP1: $7.75
MP2: $61.30

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (BB)
7 folds, SB calls $0.25, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $2</font>, SB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $0.50</font>, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $4</font>, SB calls $3.50

Turn: ($12) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $0.50</font>, Mike Kelley calls $0.50

River: ($13) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $4</font>, Mike Kelley calls $4

Results: $21 Pot ($1 Rake)
SB showed A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Sixes) and WON $20 (+$9.50 NET)
Mike Kelley mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and LOST (-$10.50 NET)


Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $21.25
BB: $14.30
UTG: $8.75
Mike Kelley (UTG+1): $45.25
MP: $8.30
CO: $19.15
BTN: $25.30

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (UTG+1)
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $1.25</font>, 5 folds, UTG calls $1

Flop: ($2.85) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $0.50</font>, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $3</font>, UTG calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.85) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Mike Kelley checks

River: ($8.85) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Mike Kelley bets $6.50</font>, UTG calls $4.50 and is All-In

Results: $17.85 Pot ($0.85 Rake)
UTG mucked 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and LOST (-$8.75 NET)
Mike Kelley showed K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (two pair, Kings and Jacks) and WON $17 (+$8.25 NET)


Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Mike Kelley (MP1): $55.60
MP2: $47
CO: $52.85
BTN: $54.60
SB: $81.75
BB: $58.35
UTG: $28.75
UTG+1: $32.90
UTG+2: $29

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (MP1)
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, UTG+2 calls $0.50, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $3</font>, 5 folds, UTG calls $2.50, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $2.50

Flop: ($10.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">UTG+2 bets $1</font>, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $7.50</font>, 2 folds

Results: $12.25 Pot ($0.55 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and WON $11.70 (+$7.70 NET)


Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Mike Kelley (BTN): $51.35
SB: $23.65
BB: $25
UTG: $5.05
UTG+1: $5.65
MP1: $8.15
MP2: $11.25
CO: $31.65

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (BTN)
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $1.50</font>, 3 folds, MP1 calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.60) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP1 bets $0.25</font>, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $3</font>, MP1 folds

Results: $4.10 Pot ($0.15 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and WON $3.95 (+$2.20 NET)


Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

CO: $19
BTN: $48.20
SB: $7.50
BB: $14.10
UTG: $56.60
Mike Kelley (UTG+1): $68
UTG+2: $47.95
MP1: $28.65
MP2: $24.75

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (UTG+1)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $2</font>, 6 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $1</font>, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $5</font>, BB folds

Results: $6.25 Pot ($0.30 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and WON $5.95 (+$2.95 NET)


Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: $4.05
UTG+1: $62.25
UTG+2: $7.85
Mike Kelley (MP1): $28.75
MP2: $14.20
CO: $14.40
BTN: $24.65
SB: $26.25
BB: $25

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (MP1)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.25, UTG+2 folds, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $1.25</font>, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls $1

Flop: ($2.85) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG+1 bets $0.25</font>, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $3</font>, UTG+1 calls $2.75

Turn: ($8.85) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="red">Mike Kelley bets $6</font>, UTG+1 calls $6

River: ($20.85) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG+1 checks, Mike Kelley checks

Results: $20.85 Pot ($1 Rake)
UTG+1 showed 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (two pair, Fives and Deuces) and WON $19.85 (+$9.60 NET)
Mike Kelley mucked Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and LOST (-$10.25 NET)


Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $50.25
BB: $18.25
UTG: $84.65
UTG+1: $27.10
MP1: $14.25
MP2: $58.20
CO: $17.60
Mike Kelley (BTN): $49.25

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (BTN)
UTG calls $0.50, 4 folds, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $2.50</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($5.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $0.50</font>, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $5</font>, UTG calls $4.50

Turn: ($15.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $0.50</font>, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $15</font>, UTG folds

Results: $16.75 Pot ($0.80 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and WON $15.95 (+$7.95 NET)


Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

MP2: $21.05
CO: $27.05
Mike Kelley (BTN): $24.65
SB: $37.65
BB: $5.05
UTG: $24.15
UTG+1: $27.95
MP1: $24.75

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (BTN)
UTG calls $0.25, 4 folds, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $1.25</font>, SB folds, BB calls $1, UTG calls $1

Flop: ($3.85) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $0.25</font>, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $3</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $2.75

Turn: ($9.85) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Mike Kelley bets $6.25</font>, UTG folds

Results: $9.85 Pot ($0.45 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and WON $9.40 (+$5.15 NET)



Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

CO: $19.30
BTN: $25.35
SB: $21.25
BB: $16.95
UTG: $13.75
UTG+1: $18.70
Mike Kelley (MP1): $25.40
MP2: $10.05

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (MP1)
2 folds, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $1</font>, 3 folds, SB calls $0.90, BB folds

Flop: ($2.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $0.50</font>, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $3</font>, SB calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.25) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Mike Kelley bets $7</font>, SB calls $7

River: ($22.25) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Mike Kelley bets $11.50</font>, SB calls $10.25 and is All-In

Results: $42.75 Pot ($2.05 Rake)
SB mucked 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and LOST (-$21.25 NET)
Mike Kelley showed Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Aces) and WON $40.70 (+$19.45 NET)


Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Mike Kelley (MP1): $34.40
MP2: $17.05
CO: $37.85
BTN: $14.75
SB: $28.15
BB: $54.10
UTG: $130.90
UTG+1: $50.35
UTG+2: $61.10

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Mike Kelley (MP1)
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $2.25</font>, 3 folds, SB calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($5.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $1</font>, <font color="red">Mike Kelley raises to $5</font>, SB calls $4

Turn: ($15.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Mike Kelley bets $10</font>, SB folds

Results: $15.50 Pot ($0.75 Rake)
Mike Kelley mucked Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and WON $14.75 (+$7.50 NET)

Re: Pooh Bah Post. Flop min-bet Theorem
 

Not saying that it aint true, but if you're gonna repop it every time then you become pretty exploitable.
If I'm OOP against you and hit the nuts on the flop, then I should just minbet and let you trow in more and more money because you will always asume I'm weak.

It's probably often true, but I wouldn't make a theorem out of it.

Some examples of exploits when OOP and you were the preflop raiser:
-minbet the nuts and let you raise it up
-minbet/reraise as a pure bluff (you're reraising all the time with AK/AQ type of hands anyhow) and you often can't call anyhow
-minbet/reraise the nuts

If I constantly minbet OOP against you with every hand where you are the preflop agressor then you will constantly be putting in money, gaining very little when I missed and losing alot when I hit.

Just my 2 cent

Re: Pooh Bah Post. Flop min-bet Theorem
 

I think I would adjust Nogatsira.

2 of your ways of exploiting it involve flopping the nuts and then min-betting into me.

First you have to flop the nuts. I guess that's an easier task than I thought. Please do your pooh bah post on how to flop the nuts.

Then you must have the read that I reraise minbets, which 95% of micro stakes players are too lazy to observe.

The bluff min bet reraise is pretty dangerous since in my examples I played it the same whether I flopped two pair or had air. You would be risking your whole stack for basically a flop size bet.

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If I constantly minbet OOP against you with every hand where you are the preflop agressor then you will constantly be putting in money, gaining very little when I missed and losing alot when I hit.

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No I would be losing just a little more than a standard CB when I missed.

Re: Pooh Bah Post. Flop min-bet Theorem
 

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but if you're gonna repop it every time then you become pretty exploitable.


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The players that typically use this min-bet lead "technique" aren't the type of players that you would worry about exploiting you.

Re: Pooh Bah Post. Flop min-bet Theorem
 

Nice post Mike, interesting.
I like the way you have used PT here.

I like to make a note of habitual min betters, playing in position against them multiway is nice since they always offer you odds to draw/chance to semibluff.

Never thought that it would mean a weak hand so often though.

Re: Pooh Bah Post. Flop min-bet Theorem
 

He would probly take into consideration that an advanced reg was poking minbets at him.

just my 2 cents

I" think this is very usefull information for the up and coming micro ballers, glad to see that you could think of somthing!

Re: Pooh Bah Post. Flop min-bet Theorem
 

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Not saying that it ain't true, but if you're gonna re pop it every time then you become pretty exploitable.
If I'm OOP against you and hit the nuts on the flop, then I should just min bet and let you trow in more and more money because you will always assume I'm weak.

It's probably often true, but I wouldn't make a theorem out of it.

Some examples of exploits when OOP and you were the preflop raiser:
-minbet the nuts and let you raise it up
-minbet/reraise as a pure bluff (you're reraising all the time with AK/AQ type of hands anyhow) and you often can't call anyhow
-minbet/reraise the nuts

If I constantly minbet OOP against you with every hand where you are the preflop agressor then you will constantly be putting in money, gaining very little when I missed and losing alot when I hit.

Just my 2 cent

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He is definitely not talking about a decent reg. here and the type of player that does this kind of stuff isn't picking up on other players tendency's

Re: Pooh Bah Post. Flop min-bet Theorem
 

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First you have to flop the nuts. I guess that's an easier task than I thought. Please do your pooh bah post on how to flop the nuts.

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A big hand then if that suits you better?

Re: Pooh Bah Post. Flop min-bet Theorem
 

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Not saying that it ain't true, but if you're gonna re pop it every time then you become pretty exploitable.
If I'm OOP against you and hit the nuts on the flop, then I should just min bet and let you trow in more and more money because you will always assume I'm weak.

It's probably often true, but I wouldn't make a theorem out of it.

Some examples of exploits when OOP and you were the preflop raiser:
-minbet the nuts and let you raise it up
-minbet/reraise as a pure bluff (you're reraising all the time with AK/AQ type of hands anyhow) and you often can't call anyhow
-minbet/reraise the nuts

If I constantly minbet OOP against you with every hand where you are the preflop agressor then you will constantly be putting in money, gaining very little when I missed and losing alot when I hit.

Just my 2 cent

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He is definitely not talking about a decent reg. here and the type of player that does this kind of stuff isn't picking up on other players tendency's

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Yeah I know, I'm not saying that he isn't right with his post, those bets are 99.9% of the time weak holdings/draws/..
Just saying that you have to be carefull against regs who start doing this but apparently he didnt like my reply ..

Re: Pooh Bah Post. Flop min-bet Theorem
 

I didnt like your reply either (nothing personal)

micro NL is all about playing exploitively rather than optimally. The whole point of playing that small is that youre noticing your opponents tendencies and they arent noticing yours. And they make donk moves.


AS FOR OP: I too knew of the minbet phenomenon and what it meant, I think a useful addition to your post would be on how to put minbetters off their hand, or how to handle it when they mindonk the turn again. Something factoring in the fact that it may often be a draw.

The funny thing about raising them with air is that the type of player who will make this weak lead is often willing to try and get to showdown with their trash hand.

I donk know how much good this info does if it doesnt actually win us money. How much profit did you make in those 17 hands?

EDIT: Looks like you won about $30 over 17 hands where you KNEW (except for one case) that your opponent was weak, and you sometimes had a premium holding, and you always had position, and it was always a raised pot. So you see my point, I agree that you know what a mindonkbet means, but maybe we need to investigate what to do with that info.