5CD - bluff or not?
 

Right now I don't have the tournament history for the latest tourney I played. Should I strive to produce hand histories from 5CD? If so, can you tell me about a good converter that's compatible with Pokerstars?

Here's the main question:

This is in the latter stages of the $5 limit 5CD MTT on Pokerstars today. 16 guys left, 8 get in the money.

Villian limps in from an early position. I have pocket aces in the small blind and raise. Only villian calls. Both draw 3 cards. Now the pot contains 3000 chips, and my opponent bets (1200 chips). I have 1600 left and didn't improve my aces. I haven't seen my opponent making a whole lot of bluffs. but he's also shortstacked and almost all-in. Perhaps he's figured me for aces and tries to bluff in an attempt to get himself a "real" stack.

I don't have a very good read on my opponent, so I have no idea how often he has a smaller pair here.

Is it ridiculous to fold aces here, or is it very likely that my opponent has me beat? If I fold this hand, I'll have less than 3 BB left. That means that I might be forced to "push it in" as an underdog pretty soon anyway.

How often would you say that I have to be ahead to call here, and how often do you think I'm ahead against a typical (limp-with-a-pair-) opponent?

Re: 5CD - bluff or not?
 

http://www.geocities.com/greenage22/...Converter.html


Often you'll be ahead before the draw. I would put him on kings. He may have improved but if you only have one big bet left you HAVE to call. You won't have time to "wait" for a better hand. If he improved, then he did, and that's a shame.

Re: 5CD - bluff or not?
 

I agree. You have no choice but to go ahead and put it all on the line here.

Re: 5CD - bluff or not?
 

This makes sense. Based on the reply, I think my biggest mistake in the entire tournament was to fold in this situation [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: 5CD - bluff or not?
 

I suppose that push > call. He's probably calling a raise with kings anyway, and the 400 I'll have left by calling isn't worth much. Is that what you're saying? Noone disagrees with that?

Re: 5CD - bluff or not?
 

Oh, yeah. No sense in saving those 400 chips.

Re: 5CD - bluff or not?
 

[ QUOTE ]
How often would you say that I have to be ahead to call here

[/ QUOTE ] you pay 1200 to win 4200 (or 1600 for 4600), so if you win once in 4 times, it makes sense to call.
[ QUOTE ]
and how often do you think I'm ahead against a typical (limp-with-a-pair-) opponent?

[/ QUOTE ]
less than half, but more than a quarter of the time? ballpark?

i dont think folding was that bad, but probably in the long run you'd be better off making that call with those stacks.

*there was a recent post with almost identical hand, i think the poster was "HOWMANY", you should be able to find it on front page

** yes, this one

Re: 5CD - bluff or not?
 

Once he took three then you should not have taken any. He is not going to bluff into a raise from out of position against a pat hand nor is he going to value bet.

Right now you are trying to figure out if he bluffed you or not or even if he was value betting. Seventy percent of the time you draw and do not improve but you do not need to. Seventy percent of the time he draws and needs to. By playing the way I suggest you do not get bet into at all post draw unless he makes quads or something. Nine percent of the time you both would have improved but some of that time he beats you. Right now conserving chips is just as important as winning them so the times you would have both improved and you would have won are negligible. I think the play I posit better...but you tell me.

Re: 5CD - bluff or not?
 

Calling is probably fine. I don't see any value in pushing all in, given that he's never folding and you're behind most of the time.

Re: 5CD - bluff or not?
 

In your situation, i would have drawn 1 card. Staying pat is too suspicious. If you have a good player image, the villain can't imagine that you have committed half your stake on a flush or STR8 draw raise. Post draw, it's a suicide for him to bluff a one card draw.

in your situation, he is 4 to 1 to have improved and you are 4 to 1 to catch a pair of 8 or better if you fold.
I would say call if you don't have enough chips to survive to more than 8 hands.