Two Plus Two Newer Archives - 50NL Interesting hand w/ set of fours

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It was so clear to me that one of them had 78. Unfortunately had small sample of hands but look at their AF.
And in the best case it`s only breakeven shove.
First time I can`t aggree with comments.

Results:
BB had 78o
BTN had 78o

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you kidding? You were 100% sure they hat 87? No way, you need to put them on a range and go from there. Even against passive calling stations, you have good equity here, because they could be raising their 2P.

Okay, let's say you know 100% they have 87 and they won't be folding. Here's your equity:

Board: 4d 9c 6d Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.810% 23.81% 00.00% 840 0.00 { 4c4s }
Hand 1: 38.095% 00.00% 38.10% 0 1344.00 { 87o }
Hand 2: 38.095% 00.00% 38.10% 0 1344.00 { 87o }

Assuming BB won't fold (which he won't w/o the nuts), you are getting almost 3-1 on a shove here, so it's breakeven AT WORST. Remember we are assuming you are up against the nuts...

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, let`s take another range of hands assuming I`m sure one of them had 78o and another one had pretty wide range including overpair, top pair+FD, two pair, set, straight:

Board: 4d 9c 6d Ts
Hand 0 4c4s 16.837%
Hand 1 8h7d 64.796%
Hand 2 QQ,66,AdTd,T9s,87s,T9o,87o 18.367%

Do you see the diffrence?