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-   -   25NL low PP flops a gutter, faces serious flop action (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=510341)

Phildo 09-27-2007 01:06 AM

25NL low PP flops a gutter, faces serious flop action
 
Villain is 78/25 over 50 hands, has a postflop aggression factor a little over 3, had just seen him do some terribly stupid things with bottom two pair on a paired board

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $15.05
BB: $8.45
UTG: $9.55
CO: $52.55
Hero (BTN): $25.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="red">CO raises to $0.75</font>, Hero calls $0.75, <font color="red">SB raises to $2.00</font>, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.25

Flop: ($5.25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $1.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises all-in to $13.05</font>, Hero ???

Pot Size: $31.35

I gotta fold here right? I can see him doing this with overcards but I don't think often enough.

Or maybe I should I have folded to his rr pre?

Nick C 09-27-2007 01:31 AM

Re: 25NL low PP flops a gutter, faces serious flop action
 
It's probably close. You're only getting about 3:2, and if we knew you had 6 clean outs, you'd need about 3:1 instead. But of course this Villain is such a LAG, and a somewhat short-stacked one at that, that it's anybody's guess what the hell he has, and sometimes you're going to be ahead.

In any case, if it's best to fold to this push, and probably it is, then I think the flop raise starts looking a bit dubious.

If you have any information on this guy's preflop 3-betting history, that could help a bit with your decision.

wooziephantom 09-27-2007 01:53 AM

Re: 25NL low PP flops a gutter, faces serious flop action
 
Don't like the flop raise here... And since he plays literally every other hand, wait for a better spot to stack him and fold pf..

Phildo 09-27-2007 02:00 AM

Re: 25NL low PP flops a gutter, faces serious flop action
 
He bet a dollar into a 4 dollar pot. I'm not supposed to raise him?

Maybe I raised too much, but a weak c-bet like that I'm gonna raise most of the time with air.

AbekatDK 09-27-2007 02:42 AM

Re: 25NL low PP flops a gutter, faces serious flop action
 
Think you should be happy that he isn't making the price higher. After all, you're drawing to a better hand you'd like to hit first. I would have called the flop and hoped for a nice turn

Micro Donk 09-27-2007 02:45 AM

Re: 25NL low PP flops a gutter, faces serious flop action
 
[ QUOTE ]
He bet a dollar into a 4 dollar pot. I'm not supposed to raise him?

[/ QUOTE ]

stacks make it awkward to raise his donkbet

kroeliewoelie 09-27-2007 07:08 AM

Re: 25NL low PP flops a gutter, faces serious flop action
 
I fold preflop. He's just not deep enough to play for setvalue. And any flop without a 5 sucks.

This guy's stats show he's willing to go all in with any piece of the board. On boards without a 5 any piece of the board is very often better than your one pair. You might win , you might lose. But there are definitely better spots, because he will play back with bottom pair against your TPTK in time. I'd wait for that moment to stack him.

KIZDuck 09-27-2007 08:01 AM

Re: 25NL low PP flops a gutter, faces serious flop action
 
i think calling preflop is ok.

you have to call $1.25 and he has $13 left. thats 1:10

you flop a set 1:6
if you flop a set you can stack him 80% of the time [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I think the preflop call is +ev, but i just call the flop.

as played fold to flop push

kroeliewoelie 09-27-2007 08:17 AM

Re: 25NL low PP flops a gutter, faces serious flop action
 
This is not true KIZDuck, you'll flop a set 1:8 or something and you won't win his stack every single time. And you won't win every time you flop a set. Someone calculated you need to earn like 12 times your investment on average, to make calling for set value profitable. 12*1.25=15&gt;13 dollar left in SB's stack. So calling for set value is not profitable.


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