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-   -   easy fold? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=154849)

gopnik 07-05-2006 08:27 PM

easy fold?
 
Villains are unknown

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero ????

econophile 07-05-2006 08:34 PM

Re: easy fold?
 
I 3-bet preflop. Maybe I'm being optimistic, but I think you have implied odds to peel the flop if MP is unlikely to 3-bet. If MP is pretty aggro, I think you have to muck.

Mossberg 07-05-2006 08:48 PM

Re: easy fold?
 
Thats a tough one.
I think you can feel like your making a good lay-down here. econ_tim says implied odds may justify a peel, but I'm thinking about your effective odds here. Is an Ace going to help you? Not really... It will probably just cause you more grief. Is a queen going to do anything? Certainly not.

So really all your hoping for is running diamonds or a Ten, and with the action thus far from 2 unknowns, You can assume that it will probably be expensive to take this hand to the river on a draw. Sure it will pay off when you hit your hand, but i think theres too many cards out there that will entice you to take this hand too far, and not enough that are going to put you ahead of your opposition.

sharpie 07-05-2006 10:20 PM

Re: easy fold?
 
I think it's a fold. I would value the gutshot at 4 outs, BDFD at 2, and ace at 1, giving you about 7 outs. You have implied odds on the gutshot, but I don't think on the BDFD or ace.

So you have a little implied odds on the gutshot, but when you account for the fact MP might 3 bet you have worse effective odds currently.

Caddy_4_Life 07-05-2006 10:24 PM

Re: easy fold?
 
I think it's a good fold. Is anyone else in the pfr 3-bet camp?

-Caddy

Leader 07-05-2006 10:45 PM

Re: easy fold?
 
Fold the flop and 3b pf

Kwaz 07-05-2006 11:13 PM

Re: easy fold?
 
3 betting preflop changes this hand completely.

buzz_ly 07-05-2006 11:19 PM

Re: easy fold?
 
What would the bottom of your 3bet range be here in the BB?

jba 07-05-2006 11:21 PM

Re: easy fold?
 
[ QUOTE ]
What would the bottom of your 3bet range be here in the BB?

[/ QUOTE ]

against two unknowns probably AJs/AQo/KQs/TT

Leader 07-06-2006 01:47 AM

Re: easy fold?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What would the bottom of your 3bet range be here in the BB?

[/ QUOTE ]

against two unknowns probably AJs/AQo/KQs/TT

[/ QUOTE ]

That's tight against unknowns. I always 3b ATs and AJo. Sometimes 99.


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