JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

CO seems like a solid TAG, 25/17/1.9, haven't seen him get out of line.

SB is 32/22 over 60 hands.

PokerStars $10/$20 Limit Hold'em - 5 players
Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#FF0000">CO raises</font>, Button folds, <font color="#FF0000">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#FF0000">CO caps!</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12.00 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#FF0000">CO bets</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#FF0000">CO bets</font>, SB folds, Hero calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#FF0000">CO bets</font>

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

If he's solid TAG, I'd fold. He has a very tight capping range 3-handed ~(TT+,AQs+,AKo), the only logical hands we beat are AQs/TT, and they are probably checking behind.

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

I agree with maxter. I'd fold on the river.

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

Assuming a tight range of TT, AQs, AKo.

There are 12 AK and 16 JJ+ that valuebets

There are 3 TT and 4 AQs.

You get 10.5:1 and need to be good 8.7%. This means he needs to bet TT and AQs with p % probability where p solves

p*7/(p*7 + 28) = 8.7%

Implying p = 2.4/6.4 = 37.5%

If I am doing those calcs correctly I would say close but prolly fold against a tight range.



Now assume a range of 99, AJs, AQo

He is valuebetting 12 AK, 16 JJ+, 2 AJs and 3 99. So as before he needs to bet TT and AQo (there are 3 + 16 = 19 of those) with p prob where p solves

p*19/(p*19 + 33) = 8.7%

p = 2.9/17.4 = 16.7%


One problem about the loose range is that he might check behind AJs and QQ.


Anyhoo. Against a nit its close but prolly a fold. Against a loos'ish capper I'd call


EDIT for the 99 bummer

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

calcs look good oink except that 99 made a set on the turn

my take on this hand is that every hand in villains capping range has SD value, and it is very doubtful that he would turn his weak showdownable hands into bluffs even a small % of the time because 95% of players in these games just don't fold pairs

fold river

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

PF is an easy call? I've been folding these. What is the cold calling range in BB assuming typical ranges?

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
PF is an easy call? I've been folding these. What is the cold calling range in BB assuming typical ranges?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, i just fold in this spot too.

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.839% 22.84% 01.00% 3497547 153201.00 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, A5o+, K9o+, QTo+ }
Hand 1: 51.746% 50.84% 00.91% 7785640 138875.00 { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 24.415% 23.94% 00.48% 3665513 73362.00 { JTs }

Wider range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.361% 24.18% 01.18% 3478642 169515.17 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, A5o+, K9o+, QTo+ }
Hand 1: 48.082% 47.04% 01.04% 6767162 149324.17 { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 26.557% 26.06% 00.50% 3748505 71717.67 { JTs }

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

Being sandwiched througout the hand makes it an easy fold preflop.
River is a fold for reasons Yourface stated.

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

Not an easy call IMO. Put the TAG OTB and its easy.

I still call here.

@ Shane
Those stoves are way way of. TAGs and LAGTAGs in the 5/10 on stars dont defend SB with 99+, AJs+, AQo+.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.429% 30.93% 01.50% 28359229382 1377867864.33 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A5o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 38.615% 37.14% 01.48% 34053005853 1357120885.83 { 55+, A6s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, A9o+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 2: 28.956% 27.88% 01.08% 25566032328 986074024.83 { JcTc }


@ Apanage

On the contrary. You have great relative position to protect your hand when you flop good. TAG OTB is folding quite a lot when you face him with 2 bets buying you the button.

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

With KJ on the board, what hand that you beat is he going to keep pounding with? Not TT or AQ. The pf cap clinches it -- AK or premium pockets.

I also fold pf.

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

Just wanna add that PF is more complicated than just a stove

If Co caps hero needs 30% eq

If Co calls hero needs 22.2% eq.

However hero has quite a lot of reverse implied folding eq here. Consider eg when SB has 66 and CO has 89 and flop comes AA2. SB c-bets hero folds a bunch of eq.

Good implied odds tho with a hand that plays well 3-handed

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

fwiw I fold preflop too. As played I also fold the rivah.

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Not an easy call IMO. Put the TAG OTB and its easy.

I still call here.

@ Shane
Those stoves are way way of. TAGs and LAGTAGs in the 5/10 on stars dont defend SB with 99+, AJs+, AQo+.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.429% 30.93% 01.50% 28359229382 1377867864.33 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A5o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 38.615% 37.14% 01.48% 34053005853 1357120885.83 { 55+, A6s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, A9o+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 2: 28.956% 27.88% 01.08% 25566032328 986074024.83 { JcTc }


@ Apanage

On the contrary. You have great relative position to protect your hand when you flop good. TAG OTB is folding quite a lot when you face him with 2 bets buying you the button.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the other hand the TAG:s range preflop is not that wide.
I have to respect your opinion since this is a 10/20 hand and I don´t play above 5/10.
I would have never consider cold calling two preflop.
But that is maybe just a sign of my weak tight play and a proof of my variance hate.

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

The ranges I used are on the loose side. Mostly to illustrate another scenario compared to Shanes which were unrealistically tight IMO

This is another spot where TAGs fold too much IMO

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

* g *

I don't think he has - nor takes this line with - TT or AQ often enough to call here and AT or pocket pair &lt;= 88 are even more unlikely.

Fold.

Then again the pot is so big that I think we cannot be too confident when folding. This is way above the level I play so maybe I'm being a weakling here.

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

I fold here. I think the rivers a fold vs pretty much anyone, we have to discount worse hands a ton when he bets into 2 on the turn (AQ or TT) and value bets the river here (TT discounted again plus you have a T).

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

If action goes like this, but CO doesnt cap pf, is this still a fold?

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

I was actually CO in this hand, and it is the same hand I posted earlier where I barreled off with AQ:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=2#Post13134311

I put a large part of BB's range as pair + straight draw, and it seemed reasonable, given the size of the pot, that he could find a fold often enough for my river bet to be good. Your responses in this thread seem to confirm that. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was actually CO in this hand, and it is the same hand I posted earlier where I barreled off with AQ:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=2#Post13134311

I put a large part of BB's range as pair + straight draw, and it seemed reasonable, given the size of the pot, that he could find a fold often enough for my river bet to be good. Your responses in this thread seem to confirm that. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

So basically people have told you to not barrel of in the AQ hand cuz no one folds a pair and to fold in the JT hand cuz no one 3-barrels AQ...

I am so glad I voted for calling [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

Also, my cap with AQo there vs the SB's (33/22) 3-bet isn't bad, is it? I thought it was probably for value vs their ranges, and capping gives my fold equity a nice shot in the arm.

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

capping there is completely standard IMO. Unless BB is really tight, then his call should make the alarm bells go of

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

[ QUOTE ]

I put a large part of BB's range as pair + straight draw, and it seemed reasonable, given the size of the pot, that he could find a fold often enough for my river bet to be good. Your responses in this thread seem to confirm that. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

On the other hand he called you down with JT [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
I have also pointed out the ambiguous answers we sometimes give when we are analyzing hands.Changing perspective that you did makes it just clearer to see that it is true.

I remember one hand where Hero had A4 on button and preflop raised.Got called by SB and reraised by a TAG BB.
Flop comes ATx. BB checks,SB checks, Hero bets and gets
checkraised by BB.
Many good posters told Hero to fold flop because this is a monster line from villain.I said that I could think of playing KK-JJ like BB and the same posters that told Hero to fold his baby aces suddenly says that there is no point of playing KK-JJ this way because no one ever drops an ace at the tables.
Who was right or wrong in that discussion doesn´t matter.
But I do think that the good posters who said to me that no one drops an ace at the tables had a point.
It is sometimes a difference between what you advocate in theory and what you´re capable of doing at the tables.
And then we have the levelling issue of course.
Your AQ bet is good if villain isn´t leveling with you, but if he thinks that you think that he think you wouldn´t bet AQ or TT then he is calling you anyway.

To sum it up.I have no idea what is right or what is wrong on this river and I think my head is going to explode.

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
On the other hand he called you down with JT [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

No he didn't - he folded, so I don't know what he had. I think JTs is a reasonable guess, so I used that hand.

edit: I think AQ is another possibility, maybe ATs, but that makes my 3-barrel way less cool. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

ILP's last post in the thread sums it up

you said it yourself that you check the turn like NINETY percent of the time with AQ. thus AQ is practically not in CO's range, thus you should actually fold JT.

c'mon now balla.

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

you should call here against me. i call here as well, but make no claims that it's correct.

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

Am I a nit for folding preflop?

Something about cold-calling a raise and re-raise OOP without closing the action that makes this not right.

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
you should call here against me. i call here as well, but make no claims that it's correct.

[/ QUOTE ]
do you bet the river with tens? do you cap preflop 100% and bet the flop+turn+river with AQ? what else is there?

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

[ QUOTE ]


you said it yourself that you check the turn like NINETY percent of the time with AQ. thus AQ is practically not in CO's range, thus you should actually fold JT.

c'mon now balla.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think even against vmacosta this is a fold no matter what he says, Miles summed up why. AQ, air and TT are way too heavily discounted vs the rest of his range after turn/river action... turn HU and it gets closer, then maybe its a call vs some of u "super lags"... have to take ur word for it

to efficacy I dont think bluffing AQ on the end after u bet the turn and got it HU is terrible, but its -EV vs unknowns id say, vs a known good tag maybe its slightly EV i duno... either way tho betting the turn with AQ into 2 is probably not a good play, and the line of barreling the turn and betting any river HU is most likely -EV

I also don't think theres any contradiction in the above logic that Oink alluded to in previous arguments for not betting the turn in COs shoes AND folding the river with JT in heros shoes

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
you should call here against me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think people should call here vs me also cuz I may have future kids to feed.

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

He capped preflop so you are likely drawing when you call the turn bet. AQ and TT just check behind on the river because they don't expect you to fold a better hand. These hands are also unlikely to bet the turn, so when they bet both turn and river you are beat.