AK...fear of commitment
 

Common situation, should be obvious, but what you think?

CO was 26/13/1.1 over 62 hands, FWIW he paused before calling preflop.

UTG is very loose.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($69.10)
CO ($37.25)
Button ($29.85)
SB ($25)
BB ($24.50)
UTG ($35.45)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, CO calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG (poster) calls $0.75.

Flop: ($3.10) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2.2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $9.7</font>, UTG folds, Hero ...

Re: AK...fear of commitment
 

It may be nitty but I can find a fold here, but I suck with TPTK OOP when raised on the flop. You're 150BBs deep and CO just made a pot sized raise, looks like he wants to play for stacks here, and this is KJ/JJ/33 way more than it is KQ.

Small sample obv, but he's not very aggressive, so it's less likely to be QT.

Presence of UTG behind him still to act makes this much less likely to be a bluff.

Given 3 way pot, I like betting a bit more on the flop too.

Re: AK...fear of commitment
 

Ye I like full-potting this flop. Would he really raise the set like this with someone still to act or try to keep him in? Would he reraise the Jacks preflop?

If the answers to the above are likely no and yes, then:

IMO, this looks much more like KQ or KJ...there's already a jack, 3 combos gone KQ more likely...even though he's past his commitment threshold, I'd personally still call this and see what happens on the turn. Personally, the AG stat doesn't mean that much, especially with such a small sample size.

If I had a read on his current playing this session and it looked dodgy, folding here isn't that big of a deal.

Re: AK...fear of commitment
 

What about checking that dry flop?

Re: AK...fear of commitment
 

^^^Seems results oriented. Why would you want to check a 3way flop with TPTK? There's two broadway cards, not really a ragged board.

Re: AK...fear of commitment
 

I tend to agree that this ends up 33/JJ/KJ more often than not. Is the other player observant? If you're playing very TAG, calling preflop with JJ rather than raising isn't out of the question. KJ would call preflop, so would KQ, but I doubt someone's going to stack off with that. QT might play like that, but I doubt you'll lose a whole lot of sleep by folding this.

(keep in mind I'm an ultra-new poster, so take everything I say with a grain of salt!)

Re: AK...fear of commitment
 

[ QUOTE ]
What about checking that dry flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not bad against one opponent acting after you who was aggressive and would bluff at it...in this case IMO, full-potting is probably best.

Edit: Then again there are reasonable drawing possiblities in his range, I'd still bet this board as it's not THAT dry.

Re: AK...fear of commitment
 

Yeh, checking prolly sucks. Even so, what are we hoping to gain by betting, besides protection? We have good equity and there aren't too many draws.

Checking also looks suspicious, possibly putting an observant opponent into WA/WB mode. That's good for our one-pair hand, as it invokes both pot control and reluctance to fold, no?

I don't know. Could be over thinking it.

Re: AK...fear of commitment
 

Betting 3/4 to full pot is definitely the right play here. I think a fold here is probably best but in reality I might call and see what happens on the turn. These are the kinds of hands that after you play you should (at least i do) immediately take notes on Villain to see if he is C/ring with tpgk or if he is doing it with big hands like sets etc.
Most villains would smooth call with a set at the micros, its really important to find out Villain usually plays big hands compared to weaker hands, this is pretty easy to do at the micros.

Re: AK...fear of commitment
 

There's just so many hands that have hero beat right here; I'm looking for players who will call this bet with AK, aren't you?