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Troll_Inc 11-10-2007 01:32 PM

First published use of Kelly Criterion in poker?
 
Who was the first to publish on using Kelly Criterion for poker risk of ruin? I'm looking for enough of a citation for me to buy/track down a copy.

Is this the original Kelly paper?
www.bjmath.com/bjmath/kelly/kelly.pdf

npc 11-10-2007 05:03 PM

Re: First published use of Kelly Criterion in poker?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Who was the first to publish on using Kelly Criterion for poker risk of ruin?

[/ QUOTE ]

Who is the first to apply it to poker? That I don't know. The first to apply it to gambling was Thorp in the early 60s. Its application to poker came much later. The blackjack players and then sports bettors used it years before people tried to apply it to poker for reasons that should be readily apparent.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm looking for enough of a citation for me to buy/track down a copy.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're looking for a citation on using Kelly to optimize bankroll growth in general, I'd use Thorp's 1962 "Beat the Dealer".

[ QUOTE ]

Is this the original Kelly paper?
www.bjmath.com/bjmath/kelly/kelly.pdf

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

Troll_Inc 11-11-2007 10:50 AM

Re: First published use of Kelly Criterion in poker?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Who was the first to publish on using Kelly Criterion for poker risk of ruin?

[/ QUOTE ]

Who is the first to apply it to poker? That I don't know. The first to apply it to gambling was Thorp in the early 60s. Its application to poker came much later.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you give me some sort of timeframe to look at?

I'm assuming it was pre-internet, it should in a book?

phydaux 11-11-2007 11:29 AM

Re: First published use of Kelly Criterion in poker?
 
This seems like something Dave would know.

Troll_Inc 11-11-2007 11:33 AM

Re: First published use of Kelly Criterion in poker?
 
[ QUOTE ]
This seems like something Dave would know.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anyone know of an online poker forum that he might frequent?

npc 11-11-2007 08:32 PM

Re: First published use of Kelly Criterion in poker?
 
[ QUOTE ]

Can you give me some sort of timeframe to look at?

I'm assuming it was pre-internet, it should in a book?

[/ QUOTE ]

Timeframe for which question?

I'm just guessing here, but hopefully if I'm wrong, someone can name an earlier instance which will be valuable.

In any case, I'll try to answer. I'm not sure that the first application of Kelly to poker was pre-Internet, at least depending on when you consider the "start" of the Internet to be. There may be discussions of applying Kelly to poker in the old rec.gambling and rec.gambling.poker newsgroups that pre-date any association in the printed literature. You can search Google Groups if you want in order to confirm or reject this hypothesis.

The first printed reference to applying Kelly to poker I know of is in an article by Bernie Lugar in the November, 1995 "Intelligent Gambler" newsletter called "Kelly Plays Poker!" Basically, the gist is that the author was on a short bankroll playing a bad player, and he put his whole bankroll on the line with a huge edge but not a sure thing, got busted, and this prevented him from taking advantage of the situation. I don't believe the article is noteworthy as a citation.

Prior to "Mathematics of Poker", I don't recall seeing an application of Kelly betting to poker that I consider to be strong enough to be citation worthy. Maybe someone else has something older.

SNOWBALL 11-11-2007 08:49 PM

Re: First published use of Kelly Criterion in poker?
 
Well, one worthy citation I can think of is an article written by Bill Chen in the 2p2 internet mag a couple years ago about why you need a larger bankroll to play certain draws in limit hold em.

curious123 11-12-2007 03:57 AM

Re: First published use of Kelly Criterion in poker?
 
That would be Bill Chin, snowball.


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