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-   -   Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=538690)

 Poker Clif 11-05-2007 02:29 AM

Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

When talking about playing speculative hands, I often read about needed a certain number of callers/limpers to play hands such as K3s or 67s. However, I've don't recall anything specifically mathematical about such hands.

As an example, early in 180 player SNG I had K3 in the big blind. Blinds were 15/30. One caller, and it's to me with 75 in the pot.

One the one hand, there is only one limper to play a speculative hand. One the other hand, I'm getting 5:1 (75:15) to call.

Is this a call?

 Poker Clif 11-05-2007 03:46 AM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

[ QUOTE ]
CORRECTED AS NOTED:

When talking about playing speculative hands, I often read about needed a certain number of callers/limpers to play hands such as K3s or 67s. However, I've don't recall anything specifically mathematical about such hands.

As an example, early in 180 player SNG I had K3 in the SMALL blind. Blinds were 15/30. One caller, and it's to me with 75 in the pot.

One the one hand, there is only one limper to play a speculative hand. One the other hand, I'm getting 5:1 (75:15) to call.

Is this a call?

[/ QUOTE ]

 Gonso 11-05-2007 04:35 AM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

For me, no, it's absolutely not a call from the SB. In fact, a hand like K3s is pretty much one of the worst possible hands, esp from the SB. You have the absolute worst position, and you're pretty much playing for a king-high flush or a two pair +.

Okay, you'll hardly ever flop a flush outright. I forget how often it happens it's hundreds to one.

The chances flopping a flush draw -just a draw- is like 10 or 11 percent, so that's pretty tough in and of itself. Then, sometimes the board will be paired which reduces the value of your hand.

But let's say you flop a clean flush draw. Now you have to choose between betting into several players, or checking. Sometimes you'll have to check-fold, other times you might check-raise and commit a lot of money to a draw, if you check-call you might as well just show your flush draw. These are problems with your position more than your hand, of course, but still.

Then, when all is said and done, IF you hit your flush, you still have to get your money's worth. Which is hard to do since it will usually be hard to keep your draw hidden. Finally you will occasionally feel the horror of going through all those hoops just to stack off to a guy who fills up on the river holding a little equity with a set, the A of your suit hitting a fourth suit on the board, or just A7s trapping you.

Making a big 3-bet here to take it down will work often enough against certain tables, and every now and again I do just that in limpy pots like this if my image is good, at least then you can cut down the field and rep a legit hand on later streets. I think folding here is the best choice the majority of the time though, and I hate calling, even getting 10-to-1 or something. As good as those odds sound, you're going to have such a hard time extracting any value out of that spot.

 PantsOnFire 11-05-2007 04:58 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

K3s isn't a speculative hand, it's a trash hand. Most often, you are going to hit a 3 or a K on the flop. Then you'll be saying, "well I have something so I'll call one bet and see the turn".

If you are really serious about this, go to you PokerTracker stats for tourneys and check out your stats for the SB. Then start intsafolding hands like K3s in the SB and in month, recheck your SB stats. If they don't get better, I'll come to where you live and buy you a beer.

 futuredoc85 11-05-2007 05:07 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

K3s is def a call from SB w/ multiple limpers and 100bb stacks, 50bbs and its probably close to neutral and you should probably fold it unless you have a good grasp of post-flop play.

 curious123 11-05-2007 05:32 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

Firstly let me say I think you guys (Gonso and POF) are pretty good posters. But your cases are weak here. Try looking at this spot quantitatively, it's not that hard to return a mere sb. Just don't be so damn nitty.

 PantsOnFire 11-05-2007 05:58 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

[ QUOTE ]
Firstly let me say I think you guys (Gonso and POF) are pretty good posters. But your cases are weak here. Try looking at this spot quantitatively, it's not that hard to return a mere sb. Just don't be so damn nitty.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, my advice is usually generic for the simple reason that we don't have all day to cover the various scenarios. For example, I would mostly fold a hand like K3s in the SB but I would play it in certain situations and/or against certain players.

It also happens that the SB was an area I have been working on for the last several months. I now actually show a profit from the SB (before cost of posting) in MTT play.

 KCW12 11-05-2007 06:27 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

I used to limp almost any two cards from the SB if the pot was not raised and there was at least one limper (I play mostly STTs). After following some advice in the STT forum, I've started throwing away junk like K3, etc. even when getting good odds, and I think my results have improved because of it. Now, the only hands I will limp from the SB that I wouldn't play normally are small pairs, suited connectors and one-gappers, Ax suited, and occasionally any two broadway cards.

 Poker Clif 11-05-2007 08:48 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

[ QUOTE ]
When talking about playing speculative hands, I often read about needinh a certain number of callers/limpers to play hands such as K3s or 67s. However, I've don't recall anything specifically mathematical about such hands.

As an example, early in 180 player SNG I had K3 in the big blind. Blinds were 15/30. One caller, and it's to me with 75 in the pot.

One the one hand, there is only one limper to play a speculative hand. One the other hand, I'm getting 5:1 (75:15) to call.

Is this a call?

[/ QUOTE ]

(edited for spelling and syntax)

Ok, I appreciate and will consider all the input. However, is there an optimal/mathematical answer to this question? Are there odds (10-1? 15-1?) where this is absolutely a call?

I'm trying to sort this out. There have been several times recently when in a micro limpament I've been getting huge odds (10-1 or better) with a weak hand, and I'm trying to figure out if at some point the odds force a call with certain hands.

 Gonso 11-05-2007 09:41 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

[ QUOTE ]
Firstly let me say I think you guys (Gonso and POF) are pretty good posters. But your cases are weak here. Try looking at this spot quantitatively, it's not that hard to return a mere sb. Just don't be so damn nitty.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you expand on this a little bit? 'Hey, I'll just complete the SB because it's so cheap' isn't really quantitative. Second, if you feel it's nitty, fine. Perhaps my occasional raise with this hand suits you better?

And to clarify, it's not the cost of completing the SB that concerns me. It's the additional cost of the having to play a suited trash hand OOP, especially when you make a marginal second-best hand as these kind of hands tend to do.

[ QUOTE ]
When talking about playing speculative hands, I often read about needinh a certain number of callers/limpers to play hands such as K3s or 67s

[/ QUOTE ]

76s suited plays immensely better than K3s does, and is actually a decent hand to call or 3-bet with here. It's harder to be dominated, and you can hit a flop pretty hand with a hand like this.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm trying to sort this out. There have been several times recently when in a micro limpament I've been getting huge odds (10-1 or better) with a weak hand, and I'm trying to figure out if at some point the odds force a call with certain hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can quantify this if the call were for all of your chips, but when talking about regular sized stacks you have to take playability into consideration to call. Tougher players will make it harder for you to extract value of of anything you make.

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