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-   -   Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=361361)

Mark_K 03-26-2007 02:43 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
obviously, traz thinks that whoever i vote first must be a villager

however, he hasn't realized that my reads have actually been pretty good in my last few games.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

go jump in a lake

p.s. all my suggestions so far have been caveated that i am often wrong and i may change the read later

that doesn't mean that neil's list isn't, in general, awful

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, here are two posts by Durran this game. So Durron are your reads good or often wrong?

chuckleslovakian 03-26-2007 02:43 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Shorty I fail to see how type 1 or 2 errors and their severity in economics applies to werewolf. Why is it so bad to call a wolf a villager?

[/ QUOTE ]

First: type 1 and type 2 errors are not (AT ALL) specific to econometrics. Think of it this way: A type one error is the worst type of error from your perspective (false positive or flase negative) and a type two is the other one. So a type one error for a tabaco company would be saying cigarettes lead to a higher incident of lung cancer when they in fact don't, and a type two error for a tabaco company would be saying they don't when they do. (This is exactly the opposite way a consumer or insurance company would define the errors, and it is possible for the same data to support both conclusions depending on how you establish your errors, because you can only bound one type of error tightly in an experiment, but I digress.)

What shorty is saying is clearing a wolf is far worse because lynching a villager does not lose the game for you but not lynching a wolf does.

Sorry for the brief lesson, wiki or google experiment plan or type I error for a complete discourse on the subject.

[/ QUOTE ]

there is zero chance fnord is a wolf this game.

[/ QUOTE ]
or fnord is very smart, and he could type that up no matter what is role is. How the [censored] does that clear him?

traz 03-26-2007 02:43 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
I thought I was a wolf, what happened to that?

econophile 03-26-2007 02:43 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
shorty's appeal to econometrics means i will not be voting him for a few days

traz 03-26-2007 02:44 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
or am I merely reading you wrong now lol

GetThere1Time 03-26-2007 02:44 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
Thanks DMK, fixed.



[1] Aaronk56
[0] Bluffblank voted for Neil S
[0] boiler_bd voted for Iron_Yuppie
<font color="red"> [5] Chim17 voted for Traz </font>
[0] Chuckleslovakian voted for Durron597
[0] Dmk voted for Durron597
[2] Durron597 voted for Traz
[0] DustinG
[0] Econophile voted for Vavavoom
[0] FCBLComish voted for Zurvan
[1] Fmxda voted for WDCBooks
[0] fnord_too voted for Nez477
[1] Iron_Yuppie
[1] JaredL
[0] Jeremy517 voted for Chim17
[0] Kbar13
[0] Kumubou voted for AaronK56
[0] Kyrosmother voted for Voj
[0] Lastchance
[1] Luckayluck voted for LuckayLuck
[0] Mark_K
[0] MdoranD voted for Zurvan
[0] Metsandfinsfan
[2] Neil S voted for Chim17
[1] Nez477
[0] Shortline99 voted for Chim17
[2] Sighing voted for Chim17
[0] Thebram voted for Fmxda
[0] TiedUp14
[2] Traz voted for Chim17
[1] Vavavoom
[1] Voj voted for Neil S
[1] Wdcbooks voted for Sighing
[0] Xoom voted for JaredL
[2] Zurvan voted for Sighing

durron597 03-26-2007 02:44 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]

What makes you bizarre is your conclusion that me and chim are both wolves. That's pretty funny.

[/ QUOTE ]

if chim is a wolf, most of the time his vote there is because he thinks he will go down soon and is trying to give you cover

durron597 03-26-2007 02:45 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]

Hmm, here are two posts by Durran this game. So Durron are your reads good or often wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

in my most recent werewolf (two turbos and the end of two towers) i've been right (my two towers switch had a lot less to do with being wrong on books and a lot more to do with what final three i wanted). but before that i'm wrong a lot.

durron597 03-26-2007 02:46 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]

or fnord is very smart, and he could type that up no matter what is role is. How the [censored] does that clear him?

[/ QUOTE ]

that's not the only post that i think is fnord-villager

chim17 03-26-2007 02:46 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
or am I merely reading you wrong now lol

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're a wolf.. but clearly nothing at this point is 100%.

If you are a villager you are wrong on me.. again.

It is my opinion of you that you are good at picking out a target people arne't talking about and nail them early. You talked about Bluff and I which is an easy out. I hated your response saying you are an easy target.

None of this matters, though.. everyone will listen to you day one.. just get your "oops" post ready ahead of time.


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