30NL 200+BBs deep w/ flopped set
 

Villain is 83/20/1.1 over just 30 hands. I have no other reads on the player as I just sat down at the table. Any suggestions on a better line?


AND WHAT THE [censored] DO I DO ON THIS RIVER?!?!?!?!

Full Tilt Poker, $0.15/$0.30 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $26.85
SB: $116.95
BB: $38.60
UTG: $67.05
Hero (CO): $65.35

Pre-Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG calls $0.30, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.35</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls $1.05

Flop: ($3.15) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.40</font>, UTG calls $2.40

Turn: ($7.95) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $5.70</font>, UTG calls $5.70

River: ($19.35) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $14.10</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $57.60 and is All-In</font>, Hero ?

Re: 30NL - 200+BBs deep w/ flopped set
 

Snap call. overbets 57.60 into 33 dollar pot. Trying to steal it, imo.

Re: 30NL - 200+BBs deep w/ flopped set
 

Fairly easy call imo, the only draw that fills here is 54, and he would be retarded to call that turn bet with it anyway (54d probably c-raises flop), so you're probably wayyyyy ahead.

Re: 30NL - 200+BBs deep w/ flopped set
 

snap call. This is two pair, AJ, and missed draws a lot.

Re: 30NL - 200+BBs deep w/ flopped set
 

a player with an AF of ~1 def. isn't c/ring missed draws on the river

but I agree with everything else you said

Re: 30NL - 200+BBs deep w/ flopped set
 

With a call on the river, played perfect.

He has it sometimes and doesn't much more.

Re: 30NL - 200+BBs deep w/ flopped set
 

[ QUOTE ]
a player with an AF of ~1 def. isn't c/ring missed draws on the river

but I agree with everything else you said

[/ QUOTE ]

a 1.1 AF for an 83% VPIP is aggressive.

Re: 30NL - 200+BBs deep w/ flopped set
 

Call this.

Yes, a 1.1 AF for a 83% is more aggressive than a 1.1 AF for a 24/20 guy, but it still means he is kinda passive.

This could be a lot of 2P, and only in the worst case 54 given his VPIP... call and expect to win.

Re: 30NL - 200+BBs deep w/ flopped set
 

Its not a snapcall, its a crying call.

Re: 30NL - 200+BBs deep w/ flopped set
 

[ QUOTE ]
Snap call. overbets 57.60 into 33 dollar pot. Trying to steal it, imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not an overbet. Villain is raising about 45 into a 50 pot.

Crying call, as the above poster said. Bring tissues for the inevitable 45 he will show you.