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-   -   Calling all ins when the price is right (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=554158)

Cloodie 11-25-2007 02:23 PM

Calling all ins when the price is right
 
Is it ever correct in a tournament or sng to pass on calling an all in bet when the price is right? For example, someone goes all in on the flop and you are getting 3/1 pot odds but you are 2/1 to hit the nut flush. If you lose the hand you are out of the tournament.

Would the decision depend on what stage the game is at?

Gonso 11-25-2007 02:41 PM

Re: Calling all ins when the price is right
 
Yes, and yes. In the majority of cases this refers to spots where you're only a relatively marginal favorite. The MTT thread guys are pretty good at breaking this down, and you might be interested in checking out the ICM or reading up on how chips lose value, etc.

Nichlemn 11-25-2007 02:55 PM

Re: Calling all ins when the price is right
 
However, don't take this so far as to assume that survival is all-important. Except with cases around the bubble and varying increases in payouts, chip value tends to stay relatively similar to $ value, so you shouldn't being passing up too much.

djcarter66 11-25-2007 03:56 PM

Re: Calling all ins when the price is right
 
Really satellites or SNGs when two people are going to basically knock each other out around the bubble is when it makes sense. The other times you really are losing value in the long run by not pushing.

Rek 11-25-2007 04:33 PM

Re: Calling all ins when the price is right
 
Whilst it is always good to get your money in with correct odds, in touneys or sng's every decision depends on chip stacks and the stage of the game.

pzhon 11-25-2007 06:09 PM

Re: Calling all ins when the price is right
 
[ QUOTE ]
Is it ever correct in a tournament or sng to pass on calling an all in bet when the price is right? For example, someone goes all in on the flop and you are getting 3/1 pot odds but you are 2/1 to hit the nut flush. If you lose the hand you are out of the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]
First, survival does have some value in tournaments, but not as much as a lot of people think. The tournaments which emphasize survival the most are single table SNGs, but even there, the equity needed to call typically increases by only a few percent, except on the bubble. In a multitable tournament, the equity you need to call all-in may increase by less than 1 percent.

Second, you are probably undervaluing the nut flush draw. Very often, the nut flush draw has pairing outs (e.g., if an ace will win for you, then you may have 12 outs instead of 9), and you also win a few percent from catching running trips or running two pair. If your opponent is semi-bluffing with a lower flush draw or a straight draw, you don't need to catch anything to win, and you may be a huge favorite. If you give your opponent a reasonable range of hands, you will often find that the nut flush draw is only a slight underdog, maybe 55-45.

It takes a lot more than a pot-sized bet to get me to fold the nut flush draw on an unpaired flop, even in a tournament.


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