NL50 - boat up on the river - betsizing
 

I am certain I have the best hand. What is your bid here regarding river bet and why?

I have some ideas of my own here but I'd like to see what you guys think first.

Poker Stars
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.25/$0.50 Blinds
6 Players
Lego Poker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
<font color="black">SB: $54.90</font>
<font color="green">Hero (BB): $50</font>
<font color="green">UTG: $44.25</font>
<font color="black">MP: $50.75</font>
<font color="black">CO: $61.90</font>
BTN: $48.25

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($0.75, 6 Players)
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, BTN folds, SB calls $0.25, Hero checks

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($2.50, 5 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2</font>, UTG calls $2, 3 folds

<font color="black">Turn:</font> Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($6.50, 2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $4</font>, UTG calls $4

<font color="black">River:</font> T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($14.50, 2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets ?

Re: NL50 - boat up on the river - betsizing
 

There are no likely smallish made hands to extract from. I think you can play him solely for trips or better so I push and pray he has a straight or lower boat. Trips will call enough too.

BTW, your Star's pic is intimidating.

Re: NL50 - boat up on the river - betsizing
 

I'd like to hear some thoughts on shoving this river.

Re: NL50 - boat up on the river - betsizing
 

I'd probably go for something around $10 and pray he will call with a Q or whatever. I'm betting only 2/3-pot because it's a limped pot and villains range looks like [censored] to me. If he has a real hand all the money is going in anyway.

Re: NL50 - boat up on the river - betsizing
 

bets 8.

Re: NL50 - boat up on the river - betsizing
 

If he's moderately aggressive, I fake block for 7-8. Against a loose/passive I imagine overbet shove would work well since you only need to get called 22% of the time to do better than than a $8 bet.

Re: NL50 - boat up on the river - betsizing
 

Sklansky says that if there is no typical second best hand that would call a small bet then pushing is better. A huge overbet has the same effect on these weak hands (they fold) but in the odd chance that villian slowplayed a monster you cash in big.

I would add to that that at uNL huge overbets are frequently seen as a bluff and some opponents are more likely to call an overbet than a regular one.

So the only question is if there are hands that villian could have that call a small bet.

I think many Ts are in villian's range, although unlikely as 3 Ts are accounted for. These hands would call a small value bet. However, they might call a push, too.

Hands like K9 A9 would be consistent with villian's play much more than any Q. These hands probably won't call any value bet. Same for small pocket pairs.

Re: NL50 - boat up on the river - betsizing
 

[ QUOTE ]
There are no likely smallish made hands to extract from. I think you can play him solely for trips or better so I push and pray he has a straight or lower boat. Trips will call enough too.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to hear some thoughts on shoving this river.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts are along these lines as well:

Villain will either fold regardless of what we bet - or he had either a ten on the flop or made some sort of straight on the turn. I lean towards a shove.

Results in white:
<font color="white">
FWIW villain was your average 20/13 TAG and instacalled a PSB on the river with AT</font>

Re: NL50 - boat up on the river - betsizing
 

push.

Tx will call and you beat every single T out there.

unless villain is very aggro he's never raising this river without a boat - and a boat will always call a push.

He might even decide you are bluffing and call with 2pair or AQ.

I think if he has a T he calls a push at least 70% of the time - you are leaving a ton of value on the table trying to work out the best size to bet to get value from KQ J9 and the few other small hands he might call a value bet with but would fold to a push.

Almost nobody folds rivered trips here.

Re: NL50 - boat up on the river - betsizing
 

I thought about shoving when I saw this hand,

then I realised I almost never shove, I think its a small leak of mine.

Great post matrix and triggerle!