Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

There is no question in my mind that certain female Asians who never smoked, exercise, eat right, and have extreme longevity in their family, are better than 50% to hit 90 if they are 50 now. Especially given expected medical advances.

But what about American males who don't have centurian relatives. If you were allowed to examine and query all American, Caucasion, male 50 year olds without such relatives, are there any that you could bet even money would make 90?

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

no because they're most likely overweight so they will face problems like heart disease, diabetes, high blood pressure, etc.

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

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If you were allowed to examine and query all American, Caucasion, male 50 year olds without such relatives, are there any that you could bet even money would make 90?

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Yeah, sure, but I'd have to look at actuarial tables first. I'd guess a 50 year old never smoked married male is a favorite. Like I said, though, if I did actual research (I know you aren't into that sort of thing), I could give an informed answer (boring, I know).

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

interesting you might be able to bootstrap it and say if they can make 65 or 70 in decent health, then if they are wealthy the tech might then be available to get them to 90.

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

Life insurance companies may start to monitor this thread. I'm looking forward to some groundbreaking speculation based on ethnicity, weight, marital status, cholesterol levels, etc.

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

I was reading somewhere that a 65 year old can expect to live to 84, on average. So this doesn't seem like too much of a stretch...

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

Wealth is a huge factor. Aside from the wealthy being generally healthier and getting better health care, only the very wealthy will be able to afford the theoretical future life-extending treatments that make this bet +EV.

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

It's my guess that a life expectancy of 90 isn't the norm for people who are 50, so if we can't pick people out for longevity by looking at the longevity of their parents and/or family, we'd have to try to find something else concrete to work with. Offhand, I'd guess diet, level of substance use and abuse, exercise, where one lives, stress levels, and wealth would all be very important components in longevity.

In the US, they supposedly live longest in Hawaii. It may not be mathematically sensible to give any 50 year old a 50% chance to hit 90, but I guess if I were to put money on anyone to do it, it would be: A non-smoker who is at most a light drinker and does no other drugs, lives in Hawaii, is retired and has nothing particularly stressful in their life to worry about, has plenty of money to meet any health needs and buy the best healthy food, actually does eat healthy and moderately, and gets plenty of exercise.

Hawaii has a pretty fair number of people who live quite a bit like that.

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

Does anyone know what the rate of dementia (any form) is in 90 year olds?

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

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Does anyone know what the rate of dementia (any form) is in 90 year olds?

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From personal observation it seems to be around 99.9%

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

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Does anyone know what the rate of dementia (any form) is in 90 year olds?

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That's because they're not on online forums posting and exercising their minds.

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

50 year olds who are fit should have nearly a 50/50 chance.
But what percentage of 50 year old white males are fit?
Less than 10%???

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

I don't know, but I tell every out of shape enlisted kid that works for me "you never see fat 70 year olds," (because they're dead) and I see a lot of fat 50 year olds in America.

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

DS,

I doubt it. Theres too high a risk of accidental death for most people who IMO will be able to fit the correct lifestyle patterns (wealthy, fit). You may, however, be able to find a really small subset that fits it, but no way of really testing. I think you could get pretty close... Maybe 35-45%?

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

[ QUOTE ]
DS,

I doubt it. Theres too high a risk of accidental death for most people who IMO will be able to fit the correct lifestyle patterns (wealthy, fit). You may, however, be able to find a really small subset that fits it, but no way of really testing. I think you could get pretty close... Maybe 35-45%?

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Yeah. If only there was an industry built on pricing this sort of proposition. If only...

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
DS,

I doubt it. Theres too high a risk of accidental death for most people who IMO will be able to fit the correct lifestyle patterns (wealthy, fit). You may, however, be able to find a really small subset that fits it, but no way of really testing. I think you could get pretty close... Maybe 35-45%?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. If only there was an industry built on pricing this sort of proposition. If only...

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno if they get down to specifics like: "Do you eat a calorie restricted diet everyday?" "Do you eat red meat?" "What religion are you?" "How happy is your marriage?" "Are these answers to these health questions accurate?"

Obv actuaries give us a starting point and I'd like to imagine DS realizes this as well and wants to see what is beyond them.

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
DS,

I doubt it. Theres too high a risk of accidental death for most people who IMO will be able to fit the correct lifestyle patterns (wealthy, fit). You may, however, be able to find a really small subset that fits it, but no way of really testing. I think you could get pretty close... Maybe 35-45%?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. If only there was an industry built on pricing this sort of proposition. If only...

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno if they get down to specifics like: "Do you eat a calorie restricted diet everyday?" "Do you eat red meat?" "What religion are you?" "How happy is your marriage?" "Are these answers to these health questions accurate?"

Obv actuaries give us a starting point and I'd like to imagine DS realizes this as well and wants to see what is beyond them.

[/ QUOTE ]

If actuaries give us a starting point, then isn't it sensible to start there rather than speculate about what to do when we reach the end of their data's use?

edit: decided not to edit after all.

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

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[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
DS,

I doubt it. Theres too high a risk of accidental death for most people who IMO will be able to fit the correct lifestyle patterns (wealthy, fit). You may, however, be able to find a really small subset that fits it, but no way of really testing. I think you could get pretty close... Maybe 35-45%?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. If only there was an industry built on pricing this sort of proposition. If only...

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno if they get down to specifics like: "Do you eat a calorie restricted diet everyday?" "Do you eat red meat?" "What religion are you?" "How happy is your marriage?" "Are these answers to these health questions accurate?"

Obv actuaries give us a starting point and I'd like to imagine DS realizes this as well and wants to see what is beyond them.

[/ QUOTE ]

If actuaries give us a starting point, then isn't it sensible to start there rather than speculate about what to do when we reach the end of their data's use?

edit: decided not to edit after all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apologies. Clearly DS in his senile ramblings wants real tangible answers instead of random musings like every other thread he creates (Barring that one he made that landed me a little 2p2 vacay). My error.

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

why do people want to live that old. it is depressing as hell.

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

I doubt it. Ill health and diminished capacity are what is depressing as hell, not simply being old. But not all people get a huge dose of that before dying. If you hit 90, you've probably got pretty good genes, so you might be one of the ones still doing okay when older.

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

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I don't know, but I tell every out of shape enlisted kid that works for me "you never see fat 70 year olds," (because they're dead) and I see a lot of fat 50 year olds in America.

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Doyle Brunson is the exception.

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

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why do people want to live that old. it is depressing as hell.

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Bush Sr. is in his eighties and in good health and still sky diving. It's not that depressing. He could be our first ex-president to make it over 100.

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

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Bush Sr. is in his eighties and in good health and still sky diving. It's not that depressing. He could be our first ex-president to make it over 100.

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he's on prozac and other drugs I've heard.

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

a lot of older folks are on antidepressants. does that somehow discount his good health status for his age?

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

That opens up the can of worms of whether we would say young people who take ritalin are in bad health.

Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?
 

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That opens up the can of worms of whether we would say young people who take ritalin are in bad health.

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If individuals had to pay for ritalin out of pocket, maybe very few patients would use it. It's big bucks for drug companies and all other health care companies. Ever notice that in the US doctors never recommend herbal cures. No money in it. Can't get a patent.