Fold my boat on two pair board?
 

Playing 6-handed 0.5/1.0 NL. Villain is 27/12 with AF of 1.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($260.80)
SB <font color="#A500AF">(Villain)</font> ($99)
Hero ($100)
UTG ($141.95)
MP ($90.15)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB <font color="#A500AF">(Villain)</font> completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($3) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Villain bets $2</font>, Hero calls $2, MP folds.

Turn: ($7) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Villain checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, Villain calls $3.

River: ($13) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Villain bets $93 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $106

I don't see him making this bet with just a 7. Even if he does, I'm not giving up too much considering we'd be maxing the rake just to split a $12 pot. It does not make sense for an outright bluff. I think I just have to put him on 76 here and fold, right?

Re: Fold my boat on two pair board?
 

Call, please.

Re: Fold my boat on two pair board?
 

I dont think you have to put him on 76.. He could have any 7 or he could have a straight and jsut doesnt believe you.. doubt that but maybe... i think i call here

Re: Fold my boat on two pair board?
 

if you wanna be a pussy you can say you've only got 6$ invested and fold.

Re: Fold my boat on two pair board?
 

but that would be dumb.

Re: Fold my boat on two pair board?
 

Fold is good.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

45 games 0.005 secs 9,000 games/sec

Board: 7s 3d 3s 7c 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.556% 00.00% 45.56% 0 20.50 { 9h7d }
Hand 1: 54.444% 08.89% 45.56% 4 20.50 { 33, A7s, K7s, Q7s, J7s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 72s+, A7o, K7o, Q7o, J7o, T7o, 97o, 87o, 72o+ }


---

44 games 0.005 secs 8,800 games/sec

Board: 7s 3d 3s 7c 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.591% 00.00% 46.59% 0 20.50 { 9h7d }
Hand 1: 53.409% 06.82% 46.59% 3 20.50 { A7s, K7s, Q7s, J7s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 72s+, A7o, K7o, Q7o, J7o, T7o, 97o, 87o, 72o+ }


---

8.89% you lose 93$, average loss 8.2$, 92% you win 6$. If he is pushing a 3, then it changes, but I doubt it with an aggression factor of 1.

Re: Fold my boat on two pair board?
 

Jesus, call. Theres all sorts of hands you beat (3x, 66, 54), and the way he played this looks super donkish.

Re: Fold my boat on two pair board?
 

This was kind of my thinking. Also even if I call and split, we'd be maxing the rake at $3, meaning I only net $4.50 from a split instead of $6.

And he's more likely to be shoving like this with the 76 than with any other 7x combination. Since a 7x would be trying to get value from a 3 or straight. While 76 is trying to get value from any 7x.

I don't think this was a "donk" move. I have over 1000 hands against this opponent and show him as a slight winner.

Re: Fold my boat on two pair board?
 

Call. Tight and loose don't matter for reads, nor does aggression factor. You just can't give credit for the two hands that beat you when you have a full house(3-3/6-7). Not at these stakes anyway.

Re: Fold my boat on two pair board?
 

Are we under the impression that there is a 0% chance that we win outright? I have seen a lot of bad players and a bad player could overplay a 3. He could have 37, 66, 36 as well as a straight or a badly played overpair.

Re: Fold my boat on two pair board?
 

What are people talking about? Fold is fine. You realize villain bet $93 into a $13 pot, right? This is, like, always the nuts. I don't think he shows up with a worse hand, and if he has 76 or 33 even 1 out of 16 times, it's unprofitable.

You guys will do better treating huge overshoves from unknowns as the nuts rather than random spewy crap. I mean... this is how pot odds work-- you can't just say "durrr I have a boat I call".

Re: Fold my boat on two pair board?
 

Also, bet more on the turn.

Re: Fold my boat on two pair board?
 

fold, people aren't messing with you here.

Re: Fold my boat on two pair board?
 

If this hand was reversed, and hero had 76, we would be telling him to push just 76, and to value bet everything else. Why does our non retarded, slight winner, possible 2+2'er villain's range suddenly consist of all these magical hands we are beating? He played it exactly like he had a 7 until the river (bet on the flop, check his turned improvement to trap someone with a 3 boat), when he basically told us he had the nuts.

Re: Fold my boat on two pair board?
 

OP's logic is good; this is a value shove into a TINY pot trying to stack 7x. Fold is great imo.

Re: Fold my boat on two pair board?
 

[ QUOTE ]
What are people talking about? Fold is fine. You realize villain bet $93 into a $13 pot, right? This is, like, always the nuts. I don't think he shows up with a worse hand, and if he has 76 or 33 even 1 out of 16 times, it's unprofitable.

You guys will do better treating huge overshoves from unknowns as the nuts rather than random spewy crap. I mean... this is how pot odds work-- you can't just say "durrr I have a boat I call".

[/ QUOTE ]
qft