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-   -   When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=557387)

TJ Eckleburg12 11-29-2007 05:32 PM

When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
Seeing ZeeJustin described in the HORSE event on tv as "a big internet pro" just got me thinking.

I've lurked here for 4 years on and off before I started posting, and I remember the thread back in the summer listing all the 2+2'ers who won bracelets or cashed. It was definitely a stronger showing than what (lolz) p5's, NWP, or any other internet poker community would have. The WSOP isn't going anywhere and neither is this site. So how long do you think it'll be before a known, respected poster wins the whole thing?

Surely the best players on this site are a LOT better than most (if not ALL) of the "name" tv pros out there... and as the WS comes and goes, it seems like it's gotta be inevitable that one of us would win the whole thing.

Or maybe to state it another way, what would you set the line at for a respected poster winning the world series in the next, say, 5 years? Considering all the anonymous 2+2 pros that had to have been in the '07 World Series, I'd say no worse than even money.

Tomcruise 11-29-2007 05:33 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
I'm gonna say it'll happen in July out of all months of the year.

Alex Jacob 11-29-2007 05:35 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
wait about -3.5 yrs

rsigley 11-29-2007 05:35 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
http://www.gregraymer.net/img/greg-raymer.jpg

XXXNoahXXX 11-29-2007 05:35 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
i will make this bet with you up to $5k to be held in escrow.

ZanDa 11-29-2007 05:43 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
http://classroomclipart.com/images/g...lldozer-10.jpg

Well... ALMOST.

TJ Eckleburg12 11-29-2007 05:43 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
[ QUOTE ]
http://www.gregraymer.net/img/greg-raymer.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought he started posting here after he won.

LennartZ 11-29-2007 05:46 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
I think in 2004

TJ Eckleburg12 11-29-2007 05:46 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
[ QUOTE ]
i will make this bet with you up to $5k to be held in escrow.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't worry, I wasn't looking for action... and I certainly won't bet against Cole once he's 21.

What do you think the money line would be for the next 5 years? Something like -300?

iamonething 11-29-2007 05:48 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
they're lurking!

hi jamie!

hi jerry Not!

lol @ chris!

hi stu!

heater 11-29-2007 05:52 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
http://www.gregraymer.net/img/greg-raymer.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought he started posting here after he won.

[/ QUOTE ]

You would be wrong.

inyourface 11-29-2007 05:53 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Surely the best players on this site are a LOT better than most (if not ALL) of the "name" tv pros out there...

[/ QUOTE ]

Here we go...

seriously what is the matter with you people?

sapol 11-29-2007 05:54 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
Raymer ldo

Micro Donk 11-29-2007 05:59 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
http://www.gregraymer.net/img/greg-raymer.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought he started posting here after he won.

[/ QUOTE ]

he registered in 2002. heres a fun post though

http://img153.imageshack.us/img153/8458/raymertl9.gif

TJ Eckleburg12 11-29-2007 06:01 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Surely the best players on this site are a LOT better than most (if not ALL) of the "name" tv pros out there...

[/ QUOTE ]

Here we go...

seriously what is the matter with you people?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think most of the name tv pros are BETTER than some of the best in HSNL?

I'm not trying to sound like a low post-count jocksniffing fanboy railtard talking about how great CTS, Aba, and others are. I'm just saying that for the millions of hands they've played, they probably have a better technical understanding of the game than most of the better known tv pros.

TJ Eckleburg12 11-29-2007 06:06 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
[ QUOTE ]
he registered in 2002. heres a fun post though

[/ QUOTE ]

That's pretty crazy indeed, then... seeing as he went on to win it.

Maybe I need to edit the title to When will a 2p2er win ANOTHER WSOPME.

Qrawl 11-29-2007 06:08 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
Raymer even credited 2+2 for his WSOP win.

MicroBob 11-29-2007 06:15 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
thought he had a trip report here in 99 of flying out to Vegas for the first time and playing his first tourneys out there including some $1500 buy-in event at the Orleans or something. He had played tourneys at foxwoods but not in LV.

I think he had concluded that with the juice, airfare and hotel costs they weren't worth it.

We had a big Sweat Fossilman thread while it was going on in 2004 and I remember thinking how neat it was that he was chip-leader after day 2 or whatever.

He was supposed to write a book about it for 2+2 but never got around to it. Then when he finished 30th in 2005 it looked like he would have even more material and the book project was still in the works.

Still waiting....

inyourface 11-29-2007 06:16 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Surely the best players on this site are a LOT better than most (if not ALL) of the "name" tv pros out there...

[/ QUOTE ]

Here we go...

seriously what is the matter with you people?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think most of the name tv pros are BETTER than some of the best in HSNL?

I'm not trying to sound like a low post-count jocksniffing fanboy railtard talking about how great CTS, Aba, and others are. I'm just saying that for the millions of hands they've played, they probably have a better technical understanding of the game than most of the better known tv pros.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aba, Jman, CTS (to an extent) are HU cash specialists there is zero chance they will win the WSOP in their lifetime because of the way it is set up like a lottery and frankly iirc Aba said he was bored during the WSOP halfway through the day 1 he was assigned.

But at least you tried not to sound like a jockstrap sniffing fanboy.

faarcyde 11-29-2007 06:27 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
I heard Jamie Gold posts under the alias "Grimstarr" on 2+2. Not sure if it is true though.

betgo 11-29-2007 06:33 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
http://www.gregraymer.net/img/greg-raymer.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought he started posting here after he won.

[/ QUOTE ]

You would be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]
He used to be one of the regular posters in the MTT forum, but he pretty much stopped posting strategy after winning the ME.

SEABEAST 11-29-2007 06:33 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
Yeah I remember Fossilman sweat thread. 2+2 was so civilised back then.

JMa 11-29-2007 06:36 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I remember Fossilman sweat thread. 2+2 was so civilised back then.

[/ QUOTE ]

didnt greg also sell pieces of himself during that WSOP? or was that the year before?

Wilpro 11-29-2007 06:39 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
[x] Didn't know rules of poker back when Raymer won it
<font color="white">[x] Still don't know rules</font>

TheJackale 11-29-2007 06:48 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
[ QUOTE ]
http://www.gregraymer.net/img/greg-raymer.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

Erik W 11-29-2007 07:19 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
Who cares about ME or any WSOP donkament(except horse).

If you put 1000 fish and 10 sharks in a aquarium one fish will eventually outlast the sharks when they die of old age.

It is -EV to play in WSOP even if you are best in the world compared to play some internet or live cash games.

ben wb 11-29-2007 07:22 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
http://img503.imageshack.us/img503/3...errocksow8.jpg

squashington 11-29-2007 07:51 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Who cares about ME or any WSOP donkament(except horse).

If you put 1000 fish and 10 sharks in a aquarium one fish will eventually outlast the sharks when they die of old age.

It is -EV to play in WSOP even if you are best in the world compared to play some internet or live cash games.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your analogy makes no sense? How does sharks dying of old age translate to outlasting 90% of particpants in an MTT?

If your bankroll is large enough the WSOPME is probably the most +EV tourney there is. Ya it's like dodging raindrops but you have the same probability of cashing in a 100 man tourney as a 10,000 man tourney.

The implicit benefits of going deep in the tourney make it even more +EV cuz of sponsorships.

BowToYourSensei 11-29-2007 07:54 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
whenever i damn well feel like winning it

Dynasty 11-29-2007 08:01 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
These 2+2 threads following Greg's run in 2004 may be interesting to some.

2004 WSOP Final Table (Day 7) Thread

Day 6 Thread
Day 6 Part 2

Day 5 Thread

Day 4 Thread

Day 3 Thread


I'm sure there are some other threads that I missed.


The 2+2 community was a lot smaller then despite the poker boom being underway for about 6-9 months. When one of our own was doing so well starting very early in the tournament, it got all our attention. By the time he got to the final table, it was a real mania around here.



gobbomom 11-29-2007 08:17 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
those are really cool Dynasty.

Dynasty 11-29-2007 08:54 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
BTW, I remember being at Foxwoods in late March/early April of 2004 and talking to a friend about the upcoming WSOP. I said something like "I'm hearing this year's WSOP might draw 1,500 players. That would be almost double last year."

Getting 1,500 for the WSOP Main Event seemed like an extraordinary high # at the time. It was unprecedented for the turnout to jump by such a high %. When 2,576 players showed up at Binion's Horseshoe, I don't think anybody was prepared for it. The place was a zoo. I remember hearing about lines for alternates which stretched outside the building.

GeniusToad 11-29-2007 09:37 PM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Raymer even credited 2+2 for his WSOP win.

[/ QUOTE ]

cha-ching!

then he also credited Poker Stars:

CHA-CHA-CHA-CHA-CHA-CHA-HYA-CHA-CHA-CHA-CHING!

JohnG 11-30-2007 05:12 AM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I thought he started posting here after he won.

[/ QUOTE ]

he registered in 2002. heres a fun post though

http://img153.imageshack.us/img153/8458/raymertl9.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

2002 was when the site went to new software and everyone had to re-register. Raymer was posting strategy on 2+2 from the 90's right up to his wsop win. I think I still have most of his posts on my computer.

Wayrin 11-30-2007 10:36 AM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
About a 2+2er winning in the next five years...

Let's assume every year there's 20 in the WSOPME, and 6000 players. (Just a guess, I have no idea how many 2+2ers join this thing). Let's also assume 2+2ers are 3 times more likely to win. This gives still a 99% chance that in any given year, a 2+2er will not win.

So within 5 years, the chances of a 2+2 win are still &lt;5%. It'd take about 70 years before it's a flip if a 2+2er has won or not in this made-up scenario.

Lori 11-30-2007 10:49 AM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Let's assume every year there's 20 in the WSOPME

[/ QUOTE ]

This is likely the worst estimate for anything ever. IMO

<font color="white"> Lori</font>

Wayrin 11-30-2007 10:53 AM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
Haha, fair enough. What's a better number?

auc hincloss 11-30-2007 10:53 AM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Let's assume every year there's 20 in the WSOPME

[/ QUOTE ]

This is likely the worst estimate for anything ever. IMO

<font color="white"> Lori</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

lol.

McFatSauce 11-30-2007 11:06 AM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Haha, fair enough. What's a better number?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd guess much much higher.

Lori 11-30-2007 11:15 AM

Re: When will a 2+2er win the WSOPME?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Haha, fair enough. What's a better number?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's going to matter whether you mean "Has a 2+2 account" or "Contributes daily" or at whatever point in between, but I'd say 200 is still going to be too low.

Day 1a thread

That's just the people who could be bothered to post, on the day in that exact thread or very well known 2+2ers that people discovered were playing.

There were four threads for day 1, plus other registration and sweat threads too

<font color="white"> Lori </font>


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