Settle this Baseball Argument
 

It is the bottom of the 9th in a tie game. You have men on 1st and 2nd with no outs and your 2,3,4 hitters coming up to bat. The man on 2nd has slightly above average to above average speed. Your 2,3,4 hitters are your best 3 hitters, can all hit for power and all have solid BA/OBP numbers, and are all significantly better hitters than the #5 hitter. What do you call for with the #2 hitter coming up to bat?

Please answer the poll question and explain your answer in thread.

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

The answer can be determined factually with run probability. I'm too lazy to do it, though.

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

Ok, take a look at the Run Frequency matrix, for a start. With runners on 1st and 2nd with no one out (the current situation) you will score 1 or more runs (the only thing we care about) 64.1% of the time. We have 4 possible outcomes. The hitter swings away and gets a hit (we'll assume for simplicity that ALL hits score him), he could swing away and get out, he could bunt and succeed, or he could bunt and fail. Lets take a look at these outcomes and their impact on how many runs we score.

Swing and Hit: Win the game.
Swing and get out: 42.6% to win if runners stay, 69.5% to win if runners advance, 26.3% to win if he GIDP.
Bunt and succeed: 69.5% to win
Bunt and fail: 42.6% to win.

So, now you need your assumptions. What is the BA for the 2 hitter? What is his successful bunt percentage? Take guesses at these, and you can quickly figure out what your EV is in each choice. If he is a .300 hitter, and he GIDP 10% of the time, and he hits a deep enough fly ball another 10% of the time, you have .30(1)+.10(.263)+.10(.695)+.5(.426)=61% to win if you swing away. So, if the guy gets the bunt down 100% of the time, bunting is obviously best. But he probably doesn't. So, whats the breakeven point? In this case, it would be about 88%. If he successfully bunts 88% of the time, bunting is the better choice. With all of these assumptions. If I did the math right (another huge assumption). Do most good 2 hitters beat this 88% mark? Probably, but I bet its close. Like in poker, this is probably a decision that just doesn't matter. Go with the one that doesn't get you fired when it doesn't work (i.e. the bunt).

The only thing that the abilities of your 3 and 4 hitters matter for is that you can upgrade your run expectancies a little bit in ALL scenarios. This means you can probably ignore all of that, although it isn't entirely immaterial.


Edited in some stuff

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

We can use imaginary Derek Jeter.

.318 when he rakes we walk off...
.071 when he swings we load the bases...
.02 he grounds into a DP

We can assume best case 100% bunt success. And say that half the time there is an out runners advance.

.318+.071(.894)+.305(.426)+.305(.695)+.02(.263) = 72.8%

So if Jeter were to be 100% bunter, it would still like be +EV for him to swing unless the person fielding the bunt was McKlutz and would have an error >3%

If you wanna jazz this up, find a better bunt rate and a how often a runner advances to 3rd.

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

Bunt is right here, I think. RunFreq goes up while RunExp goes down.

EDIT: This is way too simplistic. Refer to the above two posts for better analysis. I already thought way too much about this in my post.

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bunt is right here, I think. RunFreq goes up while RunExp goes down.

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Thats what I got with my assumptions, I'm not sure what Thremp did differently (he used different assumptions a little but I dont think that is it?) maybe he was using RunExp or something like that, i.e. not accounting for the fact that 1 run = 5 runs in this spot.

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bunt is right here, I think. RunFreq goes up while RunExp goes down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats what I got with my assumptions, I'm not sure what Thremp did differently (he used different assumptions a little but I dont think that is it?) maybe he was using RunExp or something like that, i.e. not accounting for the fact that 1 run = 5 runs in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I pretty clearly used WinExp. Keep in mind Jeter is a pretty good 2 hole hitter. Your breakeven point in reality might be closer to a .290/.370 type guy. My biggest worry about what I did is how often runner's advance on outs.

Note: I always bunt v Tigers. This include in the first inning with Pronk up to bat.

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

They bunt because Willie Randolph is the team's manager.

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

Bunt 50% of the time.

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

Double Steal, the guy will be safe on 3rd, and the 3rd basement will throw the ball into the outfield (trying to get the guy at 2nd out) and thus allow the runner to score.

<font color="white"> in reality, i would say swing away assuming he is a good hitter like in the op </font>