Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

I posted this on DC but I didn't get much of a response, I'd love to hear what you guys think. I had a bad weekend dropping a ton of bets so my confidence is a bit off, I adjusted the hand slightly to read more accurately.

5 handed. Utg raises - plays a lot of hands, great implied odds if I hit. Maniac calls. I look to my left and see the bb getting ready to fold, I decide to call in the sb. BB decides to call after all. I have Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

The flop is 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG is a tellbox, I can see that he is probably about to get cold feet so I decide to bet the flop (this is of course debatable but I'd prefer that it be left out of the discussion of the hand because the meet is on the later streets), I get 2 callers - BB and the maniac who loves to see turns before deciding how to proceed because of "pot odds". Turn is the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I bet, BB raises, maniac folds, I call.

River is J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Whats your line and why? Also talk to me about the turn, my bet/call line is debatable, I knew this action was possible once BB called.

Notes on BB - I found that she likes to limp in a lot of pots pre-flop but generally plays a SSHE style. Joe Tall commented that she was weak-tight in the BB and easy to steal against (he knew who she was), in this session she was by no doubt the second best player on the table but her pre-flop hand selection was a bit weak with her limps and I found that she liked to play from the blinds quite often. She is crushing the table and feels confident, but she tends to miss value bets when she is unsure where she stands and also tends to call down a bit too lightly at times but never shows aggression when that occurs.

Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

you played it fine. Anything other than cc on the river is out of the question.

Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

The river doesn't change much about the hand. If your straight wasn't good, then obviously it still isn't good (and you were worried enough about it to just call the turn). If your straight was good vs. some sort of set/2pair, then the river could have hurt you but passive/weak live female players don't tend to raise the turn here without a straight or flush.

I'd tend to rate your chances in this hand pretty low, and I think c/c or c/f could be argued. c/c would only be for a chop at best, so I think the optimal play is c/f but it's read-based and you kind of have to be there to know for sure. The thing is, live players just do not tend to raise big streets on a monotone board without a flush. You missed on the river, and unless she can get tricky you're dead.

Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

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you played it fine. Anything other than cc on the river is out of the question.

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Mitch -- give me some hand ranges for what she's going to fire on the river here.

P.S. -- TT, I know it's a 2/3 blind structure, but I still think PF is a bit thin. I think it's a clear fold in a 1/2 against an UTG raise, and in a 2/3 not a whole lot changes except your immediate odds... I don't think QJo is much of an implied odds hand. And you don't want to bring the BB along with it anyway. I tend to defend my blinds pretty rarely, so I may be in the minority of those who fold PF but I'm just throwing it out there.

Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

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you played it fine. Anything other than cc on the river is out of the question.

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Mitch -- give me some hand ranges for what she's going to fire on the river here.

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I believe that we are probably beat also but as TT says she is confident and when you are confident you are less afraid to push. This pot is huge and I think we are chopping enough to call. Also, though she scares easy, I see people who fit this description spazz out in weird spots like this. There is one particular type of opponent that I would lay this down too and she does not fit that mold

Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

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you played it fine. Anything other than cc on the river is out of the question.

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Mitch -- give me some hand ranges for what she's going to fire on the river here.

P.S. -- TT, I know it's a 2/3 blind structure, but I still think PF is a bit thin. I think it's a clear fold in a 1/2 against an UTG raise, and in a 2/3 not a whole lot changes except your immediate odds... I don't think QJo is much of an implied odds hand. And you don't want to bring the BB along with it anyway. I tend to defend my blinds pretty rarely, so I may be in the minority of those who fold PF but I'm just throwing it out there.

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Yeah, Mitch - hand ranges!

PJ - i hear you about pre-flop, its very slim but I feel comfortable playing in these slim situations. its marginally profitable in the long run thanks to the blind structure, but i wouldn't advise all players do the same of course unless they play well post flop. Of course I don't always play well postflop, but I am trying.

Lets talk about the turn. I'd anticipate a raise on the turn 75% of the time from the BB, possibly more. I bet anyway knowing it was possible.

Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

Mitch -- we're getting 9:1 to call the river, which means we have to be chopping, what, over 20% of the time. And after we call her turn raise, I just don't imagine her firing again on the river very often with a naked Q (no flush, no KQ, no boat). That river pairing scares every live player.

Now I'm not saying calling is bad, I'm just saying folding is probably better or at least as good, so the comment "anything other than calling is terrible" sounds a bit specious.

Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

Who is the woman? I know a few who might fit that description, generally, I find it most important to recognize what they think of you and adjust. Sometimes this is a naked Q against me, sometimes there is no way in hell this wouldn't be a flush, what was your image at this point?

Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

Check, and she will check behind and show TxQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and the dealer has some work to do.

Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

ok here is my attempt to stove PF

I gave UTG the top 19.6% of hands. I gave the maniac a 37.3 coldcalling range, excluding hands that I think a lot of maniacs would 3 bet.

We're getting 17:4 and our equity is a bit over 30, so it looks like an OK spot if TT genuinely feels he can play well with this hand in this spot after the flop

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,082,689 games 83.328 secs 60,996 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.774% 41.10% 01.67% 2088975 85090.00 { 55+, A5s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, A7o+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 26.369% 25.65% 00.72% 1303522 36747.00 { 44-22, A6s-A2s, K9s-K2s, QTs-Q6s, J6s+, T7s+, 95s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, A6o-A2o, K9o-K2o, QTo-Q9o, J8o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 64o+, 54o }
Hand 2: 30.857% 29.48% 01.37% 1498542 69813.00 { QsJh }

Notice this is assuming BB's telegraph was accurate, and that she folds.

Is this stove a joke, PJ?

Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

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Mitch -- we're getting 9:1 to call the river, which means we have to be chopping, what, over 20% of the time. And after we call her turn raise, I just don't imagine her firing again on the river very often with a naked Q (no flush, no KQ, no boat). That river pairing scares every live player.

Now I'm not saying calling is bad, I'm just saying folding is probably better or at least as good, so the comment "anything other than calling is terrible" sounds a bit specious.

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I didnt mean it to say folding was terrible, I thought he thinking of betting. I also believe pf is close but I would probably call in a 2/3 5handed. Also we have given no indication that we have a big hand. We just donked the flop and called a turn raise. I dont know maybe someone should stove it, but I think she can have AsQx and still bet the river. Also, someone said to reflect on your image. This is important. If she is so scared/passive that she neglects to bet the river against anyone then it is probably a fold. I.e. She should not really fear your hand if you are checking to her. Some even passive players will recognize that you would never check raise here so she has an easy bet with a big range. If she is type who clams up on every scary river card against all opposition then it is clear check/fold. In my experience these types don't usually play 5-handed, but you were there and probably know. Regardless if this is my first session playing with her she is getting looked up.

Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

Snow - I said plays a lot of hands, I didn't say raises a lot of hands. In fact I don't recall this player raising that much pre-flop in hindsight - should have mentioned that but since its not relevant to the hand on the turn/river I left it out. Although i really wanted to avoid the pre-flop discussion I think we can narrow his range down to TT+,AQs+,AKo, + some retarded spazzy play. In fact we could probably discount AA if we wanted to since he might be the type to "trap" with AA. I probably have plenty of equity vs this clown in a multi-way pot, the play is slim but its fine. Now lets stop talking about pre-flop because its a minor decision, the meat is later in the hand - focus on the tough part!

Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

Also as far as the turn goes, why would you anticipate a raise from her this often? If she is scared as you say then she should only be raising the turn with flushes, which she should not be flopping often at all. Her flop call should be a pretty wide range, but what we are mostly betting for is for value and protection against the A or Ks as well as 2 pair/scared sets, etc. So, i.e. we are getting value out of more of her range than the times she is slowplaying a monster. All in all, if you know her well enough to fold the river then you should know her well enough to know if her slowplay range includes all flushes, or just nut flushes, i.e. does she pound the flop with all small flushes or does she slowplay all flushes if it is the former than I think we can fold on the turn confident we are drawing dead. If you dont know her well enough to say definitively I say get to showdown.

Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

Mitch - my image was solid in her eyes, but recently I had been batted around. She is also kind of passive on the river, missing lots of value bets with top pair hands, but this is a different situation if she holds a Q. Question is what hands contain a Q and can call a flop bet with players left to act on this board? Remember she was ready to dump the hand then changed her mind, it was plainly obvious that this was the case.

Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

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Also as far as the turn goes, why would you anticipate a raise from her this often? If she is scared as you say then she should only be raising the turn with flushes, which she should not be flopping often at all. Her flop call should be a pretty wide range, but what we are mostly betting for is for value and protection against the A or Ks as well as 2 pair/scared sets, etc. So, i.e. we are getting value out of more of her range than the times she is slowplaying a monster. All in all, if you know her well enough to fold the river then you should know her well enough to know if her slowplay range includes all flushes, or just nut flushes, i.e. does she pound the flop with all small flushes or does she slowplay all flushes if it is the former than I think we can fold on the turn confident we are drawing dead. If you dont know her well enough to say definitively I say get to showdown.

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I dont know how she would play a flopped flush out of position with 3 players left to act, it was the only monotone board that I recall at this point. We would of course pump it, but she is the average SSHE type who is more solid than most but probably doesn't have the level of understanding to know she has to protect her hand. Perhaps she sees a monster and wants to keep everyone in with a small flush - a mistake of course but rather common from weak post-flop tags. I'm just taking stabs in the dark here, I really don't know.

Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

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Mitch - my image was solid in her eyes, but recently I had been batted around. She is also kind of passive on the river, missing lots of value bets with top pair hands, but this is a different situation if she holds a Q. Question is what hands contain a Q and can call a flop bet with players left to act on this board? Remember she was ready to dump the hand then changed her mind, it was plainly obvious that this was the case.

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Hmm, I missed that. It could be alot of bad queens or obviously suited junk. She might have a pair and a Q also. It sucks if she bets the river, but honestly I dont think our read is good enough to fold. Our hand is not defined very well to her. I have been accused of making too many "big lay downs," so I am not one of these call all river bet types, but I just cant find a fold here. Maybe its a leak of mine, but Ive seen some weird stuff from players I thought I had pegged.

Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

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Mitch - my image was solid in her eyes, but recently I had been batted around. She is also kind of passive on the river, missing lots of value bets with top pair hands, but this is a different situation if she holds a Q. Question is what hands contain a Q and can call a flop bet with players left to act on this board? Remember she was ready to dump the hand then changed her mind, it was plainly obvious that this was the case.

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Hmm, I missed that. It could be alot of bad queens or obviously suited junk. She might have a pair and a Q also. It sucks if she bets the river, but honestly I dont think our read is good enough to fold. Our hand is not defined very well to her. I have been accused of making too many "big lay downs," so I am not one of these call all river bet types, but I just cant find a fold here. Maybe its a leak of mine, but Ive seen some weird stuff from players I thought I had pegged.

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Can you think of any pair + Q hands she would call on the flop? I can't - thats what makes the hand so tough, even QJ or 65 is likely to raise the flop on a monotone board.

for what its worth I think i mangled the hand on the turn, I think the non-traditional line of check/call and re-evaluate the river is best in this rare situation even though it feels like fancy play, I cant think of a single hand that calls the flop in bad position by the BB which isn't intending to raise the turn. Yet at the same time I am not convinced thats the best line.

Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

I think you are being results oriented about the turn. The thought was obviously in your head when you bet the turn and the raise confirmed your suspicions but I think you need to bet against a range this wide. She can have a Ks or an As on the flop or a scared 2 pair etc. It seems to me that you have a better read than what I would have thought possible after one session. If thats the case then this becomes an easy bet/call on turn and c/f on the river. I have just laid down too many winners or choppers to players I thought were super predictable after only playing a few hrs with them only (to my horror) to be proven otherwise.

Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

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I think you are being results oriented about the turn. The thought was obviously in your head when you bet the turn and the raise confirmed your suspicions but I think you need to bet against a range this wide. She can have a Ks or an As on the flop or a scared 2 pair etc. It seems to me that you have a better read than what I would have thought possible after one session. If thats the case then this becomes an easy bet/call on turn and c/f on the river. I have just laid down too many winners or choppers to players I thought were super predictable after only playing a few hrs with them only (to my horror) to be proven otherwise.

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you don't think she is raising As on the flop? I think thats within her range. Ks is the only card I can imagine calling the flop, but she isn't nearly mucking it unless the Ks has a matching baby suited card so thats ruled out too.

PS; sorry I am posting so much in my own thread, this is a good conversation between us so I cant help myself. And I am not being results oriented, it was a line I seriously considered during the hand.

Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

I dont think players who miss river value bets understand equity enough to be getting bets in on the flop. Also, why would she raise your bet on the flop and shut everyone out? I would play an As similarly. I will let some else chime in at this point, but if her flop calling range in this situation includes only monsters I would extremely surprised. What I meant by you being results oriented is that when she called the flop I am sure alarm bells went off in your head, but just because she raises the turn doesnt mean you should've checked the turn.

Intended as a reply to TT\'s main post
 

PF I just don't like (sorry).

Anyway, my first instinct on the turn was to 3-bet. I know you could be in trouble, but given your description of BB, she could easily have QT, Q9, KJ, AJ, AQ. Yes it could also be the same hand as you or KQ. But if she hand any hand like a set or 2 pair on the flop, is she just going to call a flop bet on a monotone board? I think she'd have to raise.

So on the turn we can assume she's got a Q and has made the same or better straight as you. Given that, I guess my 3-bet initial thought is not correct. I believe calling both the turn raise and a river bet is ok here. I see a chop here enough to call one more bet on the river.

(sorry - I meant to post this a reply to the main post)

Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

pf is fine. betting the flop into a field is fine. you shouldnt 3 bet the turn doesnt really accomplish much. on the river a c/c is probably most prudent.

Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop
 

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pf is fine. betting the flop into a field is fine. you shouldnt 3 bet the turn doesnt really accomplish much. on the river a c/c is probably most prudent.

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While it would be unreasonable for her to bet a dry Q here, she still might. She might also be betting something silly like AJ. Or even 9T because she's frustrated. I don't expect to win this hand, but I'm certainly calling. We don't really think she raised a set on a 89TJ board, do we? Could she have KQ? Of course. Could she have a flush? Seems like that is the most probable holding. Q(89TJ) is also a likely holding. I think you're winning lke 10-20% of the time, chopping 40-50% and losing 40-50%.