Folding an overfull to river minraise
 

No notes on villain. 21/1.8/2.2/100 hands. High river aggression factor (5). Does anyone really dislike my turn bet, or my river bet-sizing? Is river c/c better against this guy?

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $71
UTG+1: $249.15
CO: $525.30
Button: $168.65
hero: $419.40
BB: $220.30

Pre-flop: (6 players) hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG (poster) checks, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Button calls, hero calls, BB (poster) checks.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($12, 6 players)
<font color="#cc0000">hero bets $12</font>, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($36, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">hero bets $32</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($100, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">hero bets $90</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $180</font>, hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $90 returned to UTG+1.

Results:
Final pot: $280

Re: Folding an overfull to river minraise
 

Turn bet is fine. On river, I would check call because flushes are a significant part of his range and there is no reason for him to believe that you have a full house because you lead into a large field with a straight out there and a flush draw.

Re: Folding an overfull to river minraise
 

I don't get why you would fold when he has such a high aggression factor on the river. He is either bluffing cause he thinks you have a straight or he has any of the possible boats/quads, most of which you beat. Of course the minraise is scary because it looks like quads but barring some kind of superread you have to get it in.

On the river I'd probably bet less for value and to induce a shove, but now that you've gotten him raising you when he's got like $50 behind, set him in. The only way you can possible fold is if his raising range is exactly AA/JJ and he's never bluffing.

Re: Folding an overfull to river minraise
 

I like the way you played it except I probably would make a crying call on river.

I expect to be beaten here by a fluke straight flush, aces full, even quad jacks sometimes, but seriously, 90 to call 370... I don't think I can make this fold with queens full.

EDIT: spelling. Also on second thought, given stack sizes, yeah, I agree with rempel that a shove is good here. He's have to call you with flush, even a straight sometimes given the ridiculous pot odds.

Re: Folding an overfull to river minraise
 

Just to point out that the stats are correct at the time of posting, and at the point of playing the hand I had ~70 hands on him and his RAF was something like 3.1 or something.

Re: Folding an overfull to river minraise
 

high RAF = absolutely no reason to fold that river... I think you laid down the better hand there.

Re: Folding an overfull to river minraise
 

I managed to miss that the royal flush hit but it's still a shove without some kind of godmode read. Who was the player?

Re: Folding an overfull to river minraise
 

I can't remember. Can find it later on if you really want to know. He later showed himself to be a complete tard but can't remember in what way either.

Re: Folding an overfull to river minraise
 

Generally its a safe assumption that people that minraise the river with like 30BB behind are retards.

If you had played the hand differently and c/c the turn then led the river then I could possibly see your fold but given you repped the straight the whole way I def don't even consider folding or just calling. If he has AA/JJ/KTs then you are supposed to pay him off.

I was at one of your tables for a bit but accidentally stopped FTP from recording HH so I can't even look at who the likely players were. I wasn't there when this hand happened though.

Re: Folding an overfull to river minraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get why you would fold when he has such a high aggression factor on the river. He is either bluffing cause he thinks you have a straight or he has any of the possible boats/quads, most of which you beat. Of course the minraise is scary because it looks like quads but barring some kind of superread you have to get it in.

On the river I'd probably bet less for value and to induce a shove, but now that you've gotten him raising you when he's got like $50 behind, set him in. The only way you can possible fold is if his raising range is exactly AA/JJ and he's never bluffing.

[/ QUOTE ]

what is he bluffing with?

Re: Folding an overfull to river minraise
 

KT, AQ, pretty much anything if he thinks Wazz is too aggro. Villain really was pretty dumb and made small 3bets and folded to a 4bet on paired boards a lot. He also called a lot with really weak hands like top and bottom pair on monotone boards.

Re: Folding an overfull to river minraise
 

good fold, he most probably has them aces.

aggressive factor on a specific street (not preflop) after &lt;200 hands can pretty much be ignored.

Re: Folding an overfull to river minraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
good fold, he most probably has them aces.

aggressive factor on a specific street (not preflop) after &lt;200 hands can pretty much be ignored.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can I have your crystal ball?

Re: Folding an overfull to river minraise
 

[ QUOTE ]

aggressive factor on a specific street (not preflop) after &lt;200 hands can pretty much be ignored.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT. I have been burned more times than I can count by using skewed AF stats from not enough hands.

Also, bet % and raise % of a specific street is generally a better measure of how someone plays than aggression factor imo.

Re: Folding an overfull to river minraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

aggressive factor on a specific street (not preflop) after &lt;200 hands can pretty much be ignored.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT. I have been burned more times than I can count by using skewed AF stats from not enough hands.

Also, bet % and raise % of a specific street is generally a better measure of how someone plays than aggression factor imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

All of this may be true, but hero played the hand like he flopped a straight.

Re: Folding an overfull to river minraise
 

i call the river

Re: Folding an overfull to river minraise
 

I hate the river, since your hand is pretty disguised. He might just be trying to get value with a flush against what he thinks is a flopped straight.


Any chance you were tilting during this hand? It's just an odd line. I mean obv AA or JJ makes sense, but so do quite a few other hands, and it looks like a pure pot odds question.

Re: Folding an overfull to river minraise
 

I know that there is no way to know but I think his range is ridiculous polarized to AJxx or a stupid value-raise with a flush in this hand... I just feel it..

Re: Folding an overfull to river minraise
 

Not that it contributes much to the analysis, but the hand I expect to see the most here IS AJ with flush draw possibly with a T or K for gut shot to chop.

EDIT: Come to think of it, naked sets dont' make much sense here on the cold turn call. So yeah, if anything, villain's hand is polarized toward the AJ range.