*** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

IND @ SD

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

official bump since I started these so early this time

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

Colts win.

SD looked terrible last week. Chargers couldn't even beat KC at home. Yes, that was week 4. Have they improved that much? The running back is a star. The QB is average. This is not the 06 Chargers.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

I love Colts -3.5 here. Really love it. Especially after Indy lost to NE this past week. From a MOV perspective, Indy should be about -10 here.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

I actually think there is some value in SD ML. Ive always wanted to do a pleaser, and ima make a small pleaser bet with SD and Minn/Cincy. Count it!

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

OK, this is official now. I put down 1u at Indy -3.5 (-120) to win .83u. I wanted this to be a 2u play, but the extra vig makes me bring it down to 1u. DVOA projects Indy to be 5.5 point favorites in this game, and MOV has them at 8 or so, and that's not factoring in Indy's loss to their bitter rivals. The Colts are too good, and too well-coached to have a letdown, and I expect them to win this game handily.

30-20 Colts.

YTD: 0-0-0
+0u

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
OK, this is official now. I put down 1u at Indy -3.5 (-120) to win .83u. I wanted this to be a 2u play, but the extra vig makes me bring it down to 1u. DVOA projects Indy to be 5.5 point favorites in this game, and MOV has them at 8 or so, and that's not factoring in Indy's loss to their bitter rivals. The Colts are too good, and too well-coached to have a letdown, and I expect them to win this game handily.

30-20 Colts.

YTD: 0-0-0
+0u

[/ QUOTE ]

Is indy -3 -125 better or worse than -3.5 -120. I guess this just comes down to if they win by exactly 3 greater than 5% of the time?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is indy -3 -125 better or worse than -3.5 -120. I guess this just comes down to if they win by exactly 3 greater than 5% of the time?

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I could be wrong, but I believe they have to win exactly by 3 greater than 1.01% of the time. -120 = 54.55 BE, whereas -125 = 55.56 BE. I'm pretty sure Indy -3 (-125) is a far better line.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

I'm not up on SD defensive injuries, but they are the type of fast, aggressive 3-4 defense that can put pressure on Peyton and cause problems. (remember they beat the Colts a couple years ago). Football Outsiders talk a lot about this.

of course, if Philips and Castillo don't play, forget about it.

I think SD actually matches up ok here offensively - what Indy tries to take away isn't nec. what SD tries to do a lot of.

anyways, I'll wait to see how the injury report shows.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Indy -3 (-125) is a far better line.

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