Worth semi-bluff on the turn?
 

Villain plays very unpredicable. Sometimes check-call top pair to river. Sometimes pure bluff raise on the river.
He checks on the flop. Is it worth betting on the turn?

Cryptologic
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
3 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (3 players) Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Button raises</font>, SB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4.5SB, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2.25BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font> ??

Re: Worth semi-bluff on the turn?
 

Seems worth it. A lot of players have your standard slowplay range of 99 or AA here, but this guy seems like he could just be giving up.

Re: Worth semi-bluff on the turn?
 

Villain has a funny line here. It is almost mandatory to continuebet here and he doesn't. Doesn't this smell? What are your read on his continuebets?

The problem betting on the turn is that he can raise you and you will be forced to call it paying way too much for your draw. If he is an unpredictable type I prefer to keep the pot low minimicing his opportunities to force me to make mistakes. That said we may have up to 15 outs and we may call a bet.

Conclusion: A bet could be a mistake, but if we checkcall that can almost never be a mistake.
1) If he bluffs a hand like JT he will pay to much for his draw when we correctly call
2) If he bets a made flush we will call incorrectly but unlikely
3)If he bets a lower pocket we will not fail by calling
4) If he checks we will get a freecard.

So is it worth betting really when we will have an easy river decision if we just checkcall og checkcheck the turn.
Let the others make the hard decisions not us.

Re: Worth semi-bluff on the turn?
 

Check/call. What better hands do you think he is folding? Give him a chance to bet his air.

Re: Worth semi-bluff on the turn?
 

bet if you are fairly sure he folds Ax. If not c/c and let him bet worse hands with few outs

Re: Worth semi-bluff on the turn?
 

Check and hope he checks through a better hand. Villain giving up doesn't work on this board, though I'm sure it happens every so often. Mostly you're either paying two when you could pay one or you're paying one when you could get a free card.