NL100: Close river spot with 2nd pair
 

Villain is 54/16/0.8 over 150 hands.
I run at extremely nitty 12/10 at this table.
Am I right that with this kind of villain and with that good odds, this is a call close to always?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

MP2: $19.20
CO: $77.85
BTN: $99.50
SB: $135.10
BB: $156.05
UTG: $135.45
UTG+1: $131.80
UTG+2: $109.80
Hero (MP1): $191.75

Pre-Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP1)
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5</font>, MP2 calls $5, 3 folds, BB calls $4, UTG folds

Flop: ($16.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $12.50</font>, MP2 folds, BB calls $12.50

Turn: ($41.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($41.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $12</font>, Hero ?

Re: NL100: Close river spot with 2nd pair
 

Vs this kind of villain i usually call this.

The only thing that makes me want to fold is his aggression. 0.8 is pretty low, and the more I think about it, the more likely it is he has a decent hand here... But you only have to win about 1/5 so it takes a decent read to fold vs a 54/16

Re: NL100: Close river spot with 2nd pair
 

I don't fold this against anyone.

Idk about c-betting into two people, one of whom is an obvious station, on this board.

Re: NL100: Close river spot with 2nd pair
 

[ QUOTE ]
Vs this kind of villain i usually call this.

The only thing that makes me want to fold is his aggression. 0.8 is pretty low, and the more I think about it, the more likely it is he has a decent hand here... But you only have to win about 1/5 so it takes a decent read to fold vs a 54/16

[/ QUOTE ]

AF is relative to his VPIP%
Since he plays lots of weak hands his AF should be really really low anyway.

I call but expect to be beat at least 2/3 of the time.
Dont hate folding though.

Re: NL100: Close river spot with 2nd pair
 

0.8 is reasonably high aggro for a person who plays 54% of pots. I think someone made a good post on this recently, idk what topic it was, but I remember the gist of it. That aggro stat is a ratio between the number of times you took an aggressive action (bet/raise) and the number of times you took a passive action (call). Given how much he limps preflop, and how comparatively rarely he plays hands from the lead (i.e. c-bets, double barrels, etc) his aggro is actually pretty standard. Also, think about the type of hands a 54%er hits as well. They're usually not monster hands or even monster draws. They're usually medium-strength call down hands.

Btw, in my opinion, this river bet is usually a blocker by an underpair to the King. I'm very unsurprised if Villain flips 66 or a pair of 4s here.