Weak = Correct Here?
 

Villain seems pretty decent, aggro.

Full Tilt Poker $30/$60 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
Converted by DeucesCracked.com

Preflop: Hero is MP with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, [color=#FF0000]Hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: (5.00 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](6 players)</font>
SB checks, [color=#FF0000]Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](6 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, feeling that villain bluff raises here often enough that folding sucks, but not so often that calling down is clearly +EV

River: (3.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](6 players)</font>
[color=#FF0000]SB bets</font>, Hero rethinks his plan to insta call, and decides that a bet here is almost always a better hand, and folds.

Re: Weak = Correct Here?
 

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Villain seems pretty decent, aggro.

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He didn't 3-bet preflop and he didn't checkraise the flop or lead the turn. What does he have?

1. AK-AT seem unlikely due to preflop. Maybe A8 too.

2. How many pocket pairs is he 3-betting preflop? Possibly all of them that he chooses to play? Plus if he did coldcall he often would have checkraised the flop. Overall a pocket pair is pretty unlikely.

3. A king is certainly possible but I'll guess maybe only 25% try the coldcall/checkcall/check-oops line.

4. A connector-type eight is very possible but more than 50% went for the flop checkraise.

5. I don't see a deuce getting past preflop.

6. Lots of busted flush draws out there. Maybe half of them made a play for the pot before now.

7. A few flush draws just made their five.

8. Two floating overcards to the eight are a strong possibility.

At 4.5-1 this fold seems wrong and very exploitable. Too many weaker hands for him to bluff with and not enough made hands for him to value bet.

With a better read you could refine my hand analysis and maybe reach a different conclusion.

Re: Weak = Correct Here?
 

well you're getting 4.5:1 on him bluffing a fd/air vs an 8, pp or Xh5h. seems pretty close to me and I'd rather bet the turn if I'm gonna fold to a bet here imo.

Re: Weak = Correct Here?
 

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well you're getting 4.5:1 on him bluffing a fd/air vs an 8, pp or Xh5h. seems pretty close to me and I'd rather bet the turn if I'm gonna fold to a bet here imo.

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if he raises turn, what is your plan?

Re: Weak = Correct Here?
 

Stellar,

Your analysis is really good but you didn't mention what I consider the most important point and the best justification for my decision.

It's not just about putting him on a range of hands and asking what percent of those we beat. He is reading hands too. My turn checkbehind really looks like a "I have an ace that I am showing down" line. Hence his bet looks like a value bet to me.

Re: Weak = Correct Here?
 

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It's not just about putting him on a range of hands and asking what percent of those we beat. He is reading hands too. My turn checkbehind really looks like a "I have an ace that I am showing down" line. Hence his bet looks like a value bet to me.

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Are you betting QJ on the turn? Against me villain should probably bluff the river with a weak hand even if I don't fold ace high, assuming I'm checking behind ace high and worse on the turn. Whether he is bluffing often enough I'm not sure.

The whole hand is suspicious to me, the coldcall PF followed by the flop call on that dryish board. I hate making calls just for information, but as it seems close I would call and make use of that information.

Re: Weak = Correct Here?
 

You hand is so obvious it's hard for me to think he is bluffing. You can't do one thing all the time here so it becomes a question of current game history and your read on him.

Re: Weak = Correct Here?
 

fwiw I've been calling and seeing a worse/tying ace here a fair amount lately. mostly half the stakes on stars tho.

Re: Weak = Correct Here?
 

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Stellar,

Your analysis is really good but you didn't mention what I consider the most important point and the best justification for my decision.

It's not just about putting him on a range of hands and asking what percent of those we beat. He is reading hands too. My turn checkbehind really looks like a "I have an ace that I am showing down" line. Hence his bet looks like a value bet to me.

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You really haven't given us any information to support that this guy is thinking and your post implies that he is approaching the hand the way you are which may be a mistake. I don't know the right answer here but I still see all kinds of hopeless river bluffs after loose flop peels when I check behind on the turn. I will fold here some but usually use other metagame info to help me when I do.

Re: Weak = Correct Here?
 

Gaming said:
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Villain seems pretty decent, aggro.

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Surfdoc said:
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You really haven't given us any information to support that this guy is thinking and your post implies that he is approaching the hand the way you are

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