Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

Simple preflop decision. Or not. No reads, everyone seems to be playing tight/solid.

PokerStars Game #12630702204: Tournament #63182595, $200+$15 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIV (1500/3000) - 2007/10/14 - 20:09:46 (ET)
Table '63182595 669' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: makoko (74754 in chips)
Seat 2: Tizzle 10 (59169 in chips)
Seat 3: lovinAKs (182733 in chips)
Seat 4: redhookesb (114001 in chips)
Seat 5: foot0doctor (54412 in chips)
Seat 6: ynika (42707 in chips)
Seat 7: Gougagagagil (100448 in chips)
Seat 8: tunnny (30195 in chips)
Seat 9: shaniac (38400 in chips)
makoko: posts the ante 300
Tizzle 10: posts the ante 300
lovinAKs: posts the ante 300
redhookesb: posts the ante 300
foot0doctor: posts the ante 300
ynika: posts the ante 300
Gougagagagil: posts the ante 300
tunnny: posts the ante 300
shaniac: posts the ante 300
lovinAKs: posts small blind 1500
redhookesb: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to shaniac [Ah Ks]
foot0doctor: raises 6000 to 9000
ynika: raises 33407 to 42407 and is all-in
Gougagagagil: folds
tunnny: folds
shaniac:

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

I imagine you are way too shallow to fold AK here.

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

How fast did ynika move AI?

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
How fast did ynika move AI?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know, I wasn't looking at the table at the time. It all seemed to happen pretty fast.

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.608% 46.38% 13.23% 314459700 89723532.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 40.392% 27.16% 13.23% 184165620 89723532.00 { AKo }

W/ pot odds, you need 41.2% equity assuming everyone folds, so you need better than 41.2% equity, unless people are going to overcall w/ AQ.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.987% 45.60% 11.38% 365457216 91213875.00 { TT+, 9c9d, 9c9h, 9c9s, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 43.013% 31.63% 11.38% 253473306 91213875.00 { AKo }

I think 99/AQ are fairly unlikely, esp the faster UTG+1 moved AI.

This seems extremely close and I guess I fold (?), but call from the sb/bb. W/ the extra 3.5% equity or so that suitedness provides, I'd call w/ AKs.

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

shove and it's not close. AQ is def in pushers range.

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

Hrm, I thought this was from a 109r. Shaniac is synonymous to 109r. Considering it's the sunday million, more people will have harder time folding AQ, but I do think giving full combos of AQ/99 is excessive.

I think that's enough to sway it to a call and it's close.

Remember that one time I cold 4-bet you djk? I'm not a nit. I'm not a nit. I'm not a nit. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
shove and it's not close. AQ is def in pushers range.

[/ QUOTE ]

vs an unknown I agree but it's not not close [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

I think folding is fine, whatever.

AQ is in the pusher's range but utg has to be a factor too with his stack size and utg raise.

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

With all 3 people in the hand, you have 31.5%, which is about equal to pot odds. I don't know how to calculate your equity with just 2 people in the pot while still taking UTG's range into effect with PokerStove or any other program. I think it's a very close decision, can't go wrong either way really. FWIW, I just don't see UTG+1 folding AQ or 99 here.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

4,992,286,068 games 13.203 secs 378,117,554 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.561% 27.89% 02.67% 1392564987 133121107.17 { 77+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 37.977% 33.47% 04.50% 1671008357 224897619.17 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 31.462% 25.55% 05.91% 1275563002 295130995.67 { AhKs }

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

I dont often fold AK preflop with 5M. There's also a rather decent chance utg folds which is a beautiful result.

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

Get it in. You have 13 BBs.

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

I'd ship it in, but it's gotta be pretty close to 0EV.

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

+tight table
+M around 5
+fourth best starting hand
= EZ push OTOH

+tight table
+UTG raise
+push = fold and find a better spot?

if you're up against JJ and QQ, you're about 36% to triple up

weighing the two, I'll take the first option. push.

(didn't read the other replies)

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

I have no problem getting it in, even if this is 0EV. Good time to get a stack.

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

fold

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have no problem getting it in, even if this is +EV. Good time to get a stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dont often fold AK preflop with 5M. There's also a rather decent chance utg folds which is a beautiful result.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

I folded. Not sure how bad it is (most people seem to say it's close, but call) and it was definitely not a typical fold, but I felt castrated by the situation and decided to wait for a better spot.

Against and LP raise and re-raise, I'm almost never folding, but I can't imagine UTG+1 showing up with AQ very often, or any other scenario that makes this spot overly awesome. Then again, I might be becoming a pussy.

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have no problem getting it in, even if this is +EV. Good time to get a stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

IMO, that's very close to being just about the most classic gamble spot you need to take (and win of course) in order to play the sunday million like it should be played.

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
I folded. Not sure how bad it is (most people seem to say it's close, but call) and it was definitely not a typical fold, but I felt castrated by the situation and decided to wait for a better spot.

Against and LP raise and re-raise, I'm almost never folding, but I can't imagine UTG+1 showing up with AQ very often, or any other scenario that makes this spot overly awesome. Then again, I might be becoming a pussy.

[/ QUOTE ]

i can easily imagine them having AQ or AJs or whatever...or even worse sometimes.

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

I think it's definitely a push.

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's definitely a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding AK in donkaments is for pussies

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's definitely a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding AK in donkaments is for pussies

[/ QUOTE ]

People raise trash UTG.

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

I'm not folding this with that stack w/o reads.

Even if it is 0EV, you can make the very rarely apt blocks type argument*, but I think it's very marginally positive so whatever.

*Or the much more satisfying, 'if there isn't a clear answer call because it's more fun' type argument.

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have no problem getting it in, even if this is 0EV. Good time to get a stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

I push

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

There are some tourneys where a shortstack will be tough to play, and I think gambling for a bigger stack has some merit (ie 109r).

The mill IMO isn't one of those tourneys, and a shortstack is underrated. They will incorrectly fold way too often and oyu will get a bunch of shove opportunties you won't get in tournaments with good players.

That said I still get AK in here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
There are some tourneys where a shortstack will be tough to play, and I think gambling for a bigger stack has some merit (ie 109r).

The mill IMO isn't one of those tourneys, and a shortstack is underrated. They will incorrectly fold way too often and oyu will get a bunch of shove opportunties you won't get in tournaments with good players.

That said I still get AK in here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this in donk-filled tourneys sometimes it doesn't hurt to be short, of course this only is true in a higher buy-in when they will be nittier in general.

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
There are some tourneys where a shortstack will be tough to play, and I think gambling for a bigger stack has some merit (ie 109r).

The mill IMO isn't one of those tourneys, and a shortstack is underrated. They will incorrectly fold way too often and oyu will get a bunch of shove opportunties you won't get in tournaments with good players.

That said I still get AK in here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post.

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
There are some tourneys where a shortstack will be tough to play, and I think gambling for a bigger stack has some merit (ie 109r).

The mill IMO isn't one of those tourneys, and a shortstack is underrated. They will incorrectly fold way too often and oyu will get a bunch of shove opportunties you won't get in tournaments with good players.

That said I still get AK in here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

damn it, was going to post this word for word

Post deleted by Mat Sklansky
 

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

dude, you have 13bbs and ak in a crapshoot...

Re: Sunday Million, AK preflop
 

i shove but dont want to, i always like to be the first in but in this spot i wouldnt be that suprised to see UTG fold and with 15k dead in there seems too good to pass up