***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

There seems to be a lot of great prices this year...I am not an experienced sports bettor, so please tell me GOOD reasons why my picks suck...I'm looking for some insight

All my picks are pretty much teams that were either killed by injuries or have a lot of young players and should improve


Wizards over 40 (-120)
They got 41 last year and that's with alot of injuries to key guys

Raptors over 42.5 (-115)
there a young team and they won more games last year

76ers over 31.5 (-110)
Solid starting 5 in weak division

Bobcats over 35.5(-110)
+2000 for division win...seems like such a good price
Lot of young talent that should keep improving

Milluwakee over 36 (-115)
Seems like a good team to me... maybe i'm missing something?

TWOLVES over 20.5 (-110)
Ricky davis and Al Jefferson gives them an outside shot at 30 wins... 20.5 should be no problem

Kinicks over 36(-110)
Randolph is a pretty good player...gotta be worth a few extra W's

Hornets over 38.5 (-120)
Young team crushed by injuries last year and they still got 39 wins

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

[ QUOTE ]

TWOLVES over 20.5 (-110)
Ricky davis and Al Jefferson gives them an outside shot at 30 wins... 20.5 should be no problem


[/ QUOTE ]

they just traded davis and blount for antoine walker

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

I am not sure if it is worth the change in price but you can get these for a half or a full win less for ten or fifteen more cents at 5dimes, you have got to line shop. Also generally all the totals add up to more than the total number of wins. So all else equal the under is a better play, i would be nervous playing all those overs. Anyway here are the better prices you can get at 5dimes:

WAS o39.5 -135 (again I am not sure if .5 wins is worth 15 cents)
TOR o41.5 -130 (but I bet a full win is probably worth the 15 cents)
Bobcats o35.5 +100 (here you get the ten cents for free)
MIL o35.5 -125
MIN o19.5 -125 (My intuition is that when the total is low each win will be worth more so the full win for 15 cents would be even better here)
NO o37.5 -125 (the win is definately worth 5 cents)

I just checked 5dimes, but if you checked all the places with lines up you could find better lines, that is the key to sports betting.

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

LOLol at PHL having 'solid' starting 5. I'm a Sixer fan, ftr. Dalembert is banged up, as is the perenially injured Dookie. Nobody knows if Williams and Green and Carney will pan out long-term. Korver couldn't stop me from taking him to the hole. Inside presences of Hunter and Smith are gone.

The East is so week they could win 34 or so, I guess. I'd still take the Under.

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

Generally you want to not take so many overs.

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

TWOLVES over 20.5 (-110)
Ricky davis and Al Jefferson gives them an outside shot at 30 wins... 20.5 should be no problem


[/ QUOTE ]

they just traded davis and blount for antoine walker

[/ QUOTE ]

trading Davis adds 5 wins at least...guy is poison.

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

TWOLVES over 20.5 (-110)
Ricky davis and Al Jefferson gives them an outside shot at 30 wins... 20.5 should be no problem


[/ QUOTE ]

they just traded davis and blount for antoine walker

[/ QUOTE ]

trading Davis adds 5 wins at least...guy is poison.

[/ QUOTE ]

what does that make Toine?

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

TWOLVES over 20.5 (-110)
Ricky davis and Al Jefferson gives them an outside shot at 30 wins... 20.5 should be no problem


[/ QUOTE ]

they just traded davis and blount for antoine walker

[/ QUOTE ]

trading Davis adds 5 wins at least...guy is poison.

[/ QUOTE ]

what does that make Toine?

[/ QUOTE ]

If davis is poison, that makes walker' super aids

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

There are lots of profitable middles available still, if you don't mind tying up some money for the season. Here are the best 3 that I've found. If you have access to a lot of books you can probably do even better. Probabilities and ROI are calculated per Wong chapter 10.

Boston o48 -105
Boston u50 -105
probability of middle = 17.8%
ROI = 15.75%

Detroit o48 -120
Detroit u50.5 -115
probability of middle = 22.0%
ROI = 15.18%

Cleveland o46.5 -115
Cleveland u49 -130
probability of middle = 22.0%
ROI = 13.23%

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

I see bodog has the lines with unders, where are you getting the other lines at?