Is this a spewy push with rivered set? 100NL
 

Villian is 48/4/.4, in other words, a total LAPPY fish. eah, yeah, I know that calling his mini-raise on the flop is spewy, but my question is about my river shove. I think that I get two pair hands to call here often enough to merit the shove (rather than a smaller raise, say to $50 or so). I'm not worried about the straight, and I'm slightly worried about a set.

Thoughts on my river move?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (9 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($132.10)
BB ($100)
UTG ($123.50)
UTG+1 ($110.10)
MP1 ($118.15)
MP2 ($100)
MP3 ($70.55)
Hero ($100)
Button ($171.20)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls $2, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($5.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $16</font>, Hero calls $6.

Turn: ($35.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

River: ($35.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $15</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $84 (All-In)</font>

ts-

Re: Is this a spewy push with rivered set? 100NL
 

the straight looks exactly like what he would have, min raise on the flop that if you three ball has to fold, check s when makes the nuts then value bets the river which you oblige by shoving all in

Re: Is this a spewy push with rivered set? 100NL
 

I like just shoving vs huge donks. If they are gonna pay you they pretty much are just gonna pay you

Re: Is this a spewy push with rivered set? 100NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
the straight looks exactly like what he would have, min raise on the flop that if you three ball has to fold, check s when makes the nuts then value bets the river which you oblige by shoving all in

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that villian's turn and river play could be the nut straight, but I have trouble thinking that a LAP at the $100 tables plays J/10 this way pre-flop and on the flop from UTG.

You think he mini-raises it pre-flop with J/10, then min bets the OESD on the flop OOP, and then min-raises it (3-bet) on the flop again when I raise it behind him? I just don't think a guy with an aggression factor of 0.4 is PFRing UTG and then 3-betting here with just OESD on the flop.

Maybe he is, but what are the odds that it's J/10 here vs something like A/K, A/Q, or K/Q?

ts-

Re: Is this a spewy push with rivered set? 100NL
 

Anything but shoving on this river is just bad IMO.

Re: Is this a spewy push with rivered set? 100NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anything but shoving on this river is just bad IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yah. I mean, sure, he has JT once in a while, but he also has all sorts of crap here, too. The question is if he calls the shove with the crap, and I think that often he will.

Re: Is this a spewy push with rivered set? 100NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anything but shoving on this river is just bad IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

seriously. getting to the river was bad, but not shoving is badder (idc if its not a word)

Re: Is this a spewy push with rivered set? 100NL
 

Shove river, I doubt villain has a straight here. I'm guessing two pair or a set. That said, is a 4% PFR raising KQ UTG+1? I feel like he has QQ/KK/AA here most of the time, or maybe AK.

Edit: Plus, his AF is .4! Am I relying on stats too heavily in this (assuming this is over a decent sample size)?

Re: Is this a spewy push with rivered set? 100NL
 

looks like he had kq or aa, he'd never play jt like this if the stats are accurate. i'd never see a turn in this position but if you hit your 8 shoving seems standard.