farha vs PA, hsp episode 14
 

on the last hand of hsp, farha has KQdd vs antonius with j9 on a 953 flop with 2 diamonds, a 53-47 favorite. they ran it 4 times and PA won 3. however, would it be in PAs advantage to run it as many times as possible, since if farha hits his flush he runs out of the suits for subsequent turns+rivers? or does it not matter at all.

Re: farha vs PA, hsp episode 14
 

With only only the given information it does not matter.

Re: farha vs PA, hsp episode 14
 

Running it 2/3/4/5/n times does not change EV of the play.
It lowers the variance though which is often in interest of both players. This is why they often choose to do it.

Re: farha vs PA, hsp episode 14
 

running it a million times would still not change the probability that Farha wins it 53 percent of the time and Patrik wins it 47 percent of the time

Re: farha vs PA, hsp episode 14
 

[ QUOTE ]
Running it 2/3/4/5/n times does not change EV of the play.
It lowers the variance though which is often in interest of both players. This is why they often choose to do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

it doesn't even lower the variance that much.

Re: farha vs PA, hsp episode 14
 

[ QUOTE ]
it doesn't even lower the variance that much.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd like to see you try to present an argument for this claim.

Re: farha vs PA, hsp episode 14
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it doesn't even lower the variance that much.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd like to see you try to present an argument for this claim.

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically just look at the first graph here:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=1#Post12336590

And that's not running it twice, but each big hand a thousand times - enough to reach the real EV of big all in hands.

Re: farha vs PA, hsp episode 14
 

[ QUOTE ]
it doesn't even lower the variance that much.

[/ QUOTE ]

As the number of times things are run increases, the replacement/no replacement issue becomes a bit more significant. Regardless, as the number of times run goes to infinity, the variance to due to the river card goes to zero very quickly.

On the other hand, variance due to holdings and play style is unaffected.

Re: farha vs PA, hsp episode 14
 

[ QUOTE ]

Regardless, as the number of times run goes to infinity, the variance to due to the river card goes to zero very quickly.


[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? As something goes to infinity quickly? Your post doesn't make any sense.

In any event the variance of these sorts of all-ins DO NOT go to zero _quickly_.

Re: farha vs PA, hsp episode 14
 

I don't get it Troll, you post a lot here and obviously have no idea what you're talking about. wtf?

Of course the variance approaches zero with many runs.

Say you have a $100 pot, are all-in and have 50% equity. If you run it once you will have a variance of 2,500 (or SD of $50). If you run it twice you will have a variance of 417 (SD=$20). And if you run it 4 times you will have a variance of 125 (SD=$11).
And that looks pretty quick to me.