99 against UTG raise $4.40
Guy seems like a donkey from some of the plays he's made. They don't really relate to this hand though, hes been fairly tight at 18/12 and I havent seen him raise that much. I saw him miniraise QJ in mp and miniraise AA utg in the first level much earlier. Shove or fold?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com MP1 (t4660) Hero (t11425) CO (t4633) Button (t7994) SB (t24315) BB (t11490) UTG (t18225) Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t2400</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero? |
Re: 99 against UTG raise $4.40
against a tight opponent it is an easy fold imo.
equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 73.532% 72.10% 01.43% 288906588 5722104.00 { 99+, AQs+ } Hand 1: 26.468% 25.04% 01.43% 100328340 5722104.00 { 99 } even if we loosen up you hardly get the odds you need as you might not have enough FE. equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 64.122% 63.11% 01.01% 382546980 6130452.00 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo } Hand 1: 35.878% 34.87% 01.01% 211347732 6130452.00 { 99 } |
Re: 99 against UTG raise $4.40
[ QUOTE ]
Guy seems like a donkey from some of the plays he's made. They don't really relate to this hand though, he's been fairly tight at 18/12 and I havent seen him raise that much. I saw him miniraise QJ in mp and miniraise AA utg in the first level much earlier. Shove or fold? PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com MP1 (t4660) Hero (t11425) CO (t4633) Button (t7994) SB (t24315) BB (t11490) UTG (t18225) Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t2400</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero? [/ QUOTE ] I think this is a shove. U have 42% equity against a tight range of TT+;AQs+;AQo+ and he's prob calling with his entire range. If his range is wider u might have a little FE as well. There's about 1800 dead money (blinds + 75 ante) so shoving, even w/out any FE is EV+. As an option...I'm thinking that flatcalling might induce shorty CO to shove with a bunch of hands, and that would make racing with UTG even more EV+. Thoughts? |
Re: 99 against UTG raise $4.40
[ QUOTE ]
against a tight opponent it is an easy fold imo. equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 73.532% 72.10% 01.43% 288906588 5722104.00 { 99+, AQs+ } Hand 1: 26.468% 25.04% 01.43% 100328340 5722104.00 { 99 } even if we loosen up you hardly get the odds you need as you might not have enough FE. equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 64.122% 63.11% 01.01% 382546980 6130452.00 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo } Hand 1: 35.878% 34.87% 01.01% 211347732 6130452.00 { 99 } [/ QUOTE ] Lev...are u saying that the 1st range (99+;AQs+) is UTG's raising or calling range? If it is his raising range, then u have to include AQo+AKo. |
Re: 99 against UTG raise $4.40
AK is included (it's AQs+), you can add AQo but that doesn't change the equitiy very much
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Re: 99 against UTG raise $4.40
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Guy seems like a donkey from some of the plays he's made. They don't really relate to this hand though, he's been fairly tight at 18/12 and I havent seen him raise that much. I saw him miniraise QJ in mp and miniraise AA utg in the first level much earlier. Shove or fold? PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (7 handed) [url=ht |
Re: 99 against UTG raise $4.40
[ QUOTE ]
AK is included (it's AQs+), you can add AQo but that doesn't change the equitiy very much [/ QUOTE ] If you type AQs+ into pokerstove...it's does not including AKo...so your range is very skewed. |
Re: 99 against UTG raise $4.40
According to your read on him, I would put him on a much wider range than just 99+,AQs+,AQo+
This could easily be 77+,AJo+,AJs+ IMO (I would even say KJs+), esp with his stack size. equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 46.853% 46.16% 00.70% 469453704 7093482.00 { 99 } Hand 1: 53.147% 52.45% 00.70% 533467908 7093482.00 { 77+, AJs+, KJs+, AJo+ } Lets say he folds 30% of the time and no one else is coming for the ride. 30% folds - you win 4125 70% calls: 46% you win 400+800+6*75+11425 = 13075 53% you lose 11425 so 4125*.3 + 13075*0.7*.46 - 11425*0.7*.53 = 1208 So this play is +cEV, but I doubt if this is +EV, since 1.5BB isn't much for trny life, but I'ld like to hear more from you guys about this. |
Re: 99 against UTG raise $4.40
i think your math is wrong or at least flawed, if you let him fold 30% you have to assume he calls with the top 70% of his range, then our equity should be lower.
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Re: 99 against UTG raise $4.40
He calls with 77, KJ, or KQ?
Barry |
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