need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

really no stats no relevant history. I've been card dead for the most part to he probably hasn't noticed me much or just thinks i'm a nit. 3bet him once before this in the exact same positions and he folded.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $201
Hero (BB): $256.15
UTG: $189
CO: $248.35
BTN: $203

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $8</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $27</font>, CO calls $19

Flop: ($55) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero ???

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

bet/3bet AI... if he just calls i make a weak bet on the turn hoping he shoves and i snap call... it might look like a perfect opportunity for him to semibluff.. board is draw heavy and you have two key cards

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
bet/3bet AI... if he just calls i make a weak bet on the turn hoping he shoves and i snap call... it might look like a perfect opportunity for him to semibluff.. board is draw heavy and you have two key cards

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't sound right to me.

I guess because your main justification is that "This might look like a perfect opportunity for him to semibluff."

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

These spots are always tricky and it's hard to ever really know the best play.

You have two options: Bet or check.

Betting is the easiest option, and it's advantages are taking the pot down right now, and perhaps getting value from a hand like T9. The disadvantage is that there is not much that can call your bet that you beat, and there's a lot of draws out there that villian can semibluff us off our hand with.

Checking will keep him from moving us off are hand, at least on the flop. It will induce bluffs from some hands like smaller pocket pairs that would just fold if we bet. Problem is, checking here looks weak (it looks like you have what you have,) and we may be faced with some annoying turn and river decisions if he's aggressive.

I've had a lot of problems checking the flop here. TAGs seem to be dealing much better with putting the pressure on you when your hand is defined and that hand is going to have a hard time calling bets.

My default these days is to bet. Given your lack of history, I'd fold to a raise.

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

There is no good plan. Bet 2/3 for FE+meta I guess, then give up unimproved.

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

bump

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

c/c, but I would bet QT7

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

I think you can mix up your lines here a ton with lots of different stuff that doesn't involve folding this flop.

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

I think b/f is by far the best line. A solid, not spewy 2p2er isnt going to call or raise without having you beat or a huge draw, and you really cant expect any action from a hand you dont. I bet $40 and fold to a shove

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

i like check-call as this is a decent spot to balance your play when you dont continuation bet in a 3-bet pot but still not give up when you check.

the worse part is I'm not sure what to do on the turn. i suck. if it blanks, part of me wants to lead but i don't know why and I don't know what to do if I get pushed on because the pot will be large. and i'm not psyched about check-calling again but that might be best. I just don't want the Villain to be able to play perfectly?

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you can mix up your lines here a ton with lots of different stuff that doesn't involve folding this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
We surely can't b/c without any history. So if you don't want to fold you need to c/c.

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

checking and betting are both good here I would prob bet it though w/out histoyr and if he continues i would get tricky next time around with a big hand

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

I like just bet/folding. I'm afraid a thinking player will realise we're not check/calling with a hand we're willing to felt. We'll have decent fe and if we're called we have some outs.

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like just bet/folding. I'm afraid a thinking player will realise we're not check/calling with a hand we're willing to felt. We'll have decent fe and if we're called we have some outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is spot on imo.

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like just bet/folding. I'm afraid a thinking player will realise we're not check/calling with a hand we're willing to felt. We'll have decent fe and if we're called we have some outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

We're not folding a Q, KK, AA or TT so why is fe relevant?

Also, just for the sake of discussion if:

[ QUOTE ]
a thinking player will realise we're not check/calling with a hand we're willing to felt.

[/ QUOTE ]

is true, we should c/c, c/c then right? Cause the thinking player, knowing that we aren't willing to felt should check behind all monsters/value hands on the turn and bet all bluffs?

fwiw, I think you have more than c/c or b/f available to you on this flop vs a good portion of 2p2ers though I think both of those lines are just fine.

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

villain is willw9 btw

dunno why but I kinda had that feeling that he was either shoving or folding if I bet.

like what hand would just call on that flop if I bet? it hits enough of my range that he should be just giving up with most pp's unless he flopped a set. and he's definitely shoving flush draws, Qx, overpairs

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

Anyone like a range merging nth level CRAI?

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like just bet/folding. I'm afraid a thinking player will realise we're not check/calling with a hand we're willing to felt. We'll have decent fe and if we're called we have some outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure bet-folds disguises the strength of our hand and Villain will likely put us on nuts or air, but I'm not sure if in a good way.

Since we 3-bet him once before in the same position, Villain might think that we're 3-betting light and raise us with AK assuming that he has 10 outs. If that's ever the case, then bet-folding is terrible.

I doubt we're ever folding out a better hand. So there's no FE in betting.

If the Villain does have TT or QQ which are reasonable hands to assume since he didn't 4-bet. Then I hate getting knocked off our sweet draw to the inside straight...when he inevitably pushes over our bet.

Do u think the Villain ever bets AK if checked to which he would have folded if we bet?

As for not being willing to felt on a turn blank card. Should we be willing to? Thats what I alluded to in my first post. It's not a sweet option but we might have to.

this sucks.

and i don't think that it's one of those situation where all the options are about equal EV so it really doesn't matter. I think one choice is probably significantly EV over others...i just can't figure out where the crux is.......

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone like a range merging nth level CRAI?

[/ QUOTE ]

i thought of that. but i think he probably checks behind alot of mediocre made on the flop also like AQ and what not.

it's not bad if he'll call with his AK assuming that he has more outs then he has. or some weak pair that assumes we're doing it with AK.

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

Well this is awkward. I'm tempted to c/c once and then give up UI.

Edit: Well you're about a cointoss against a loosish PF range

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

60,390 games 0.091 secs 663,626 games/sec

Board: Qh Tc 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.498% 49.67% 00.83% 29996 500.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 49.502% 48.67% 00.83% 29394 500.00 { QQ+, TT-66, AQs-AJs, KQs, JTs, T9s, AQo }


Alot worse off against a tight PF range

29,700 games 0.002 secs 14,850,000 games/sec

Board: Qh Tc 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.717% 24.40% 00.32% 7246 95.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 75.283% 74.96% 00.32% 22264 95.00 { QQ+, TT, AQs, AQo }


Against the tight range you do so badly I might just c/f

Against the loose one, you have a bunch of EQ against it. Can you bet call? Let's see a loose PF/loose shoving range (I didn't include KQs, maybe I should have):

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

39,600 games 0.001 secs 39,600,000 games/sec

Board: Qh Tc 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.987% 32.88% 01.11% 13019 440.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 66.013% 64.90% 01.11% 25701 440.00 { QQ+, TT, 88, AQs-AJs, JTs, T9s, AQo }

Against this we can't call so I don't like bet/call, maybe bet/fold if we think he has the loose PF/loose shoving range but we had so much EQ against his loose PF (and I think he might stab a bunch of hands) so i you put him on loose PF and think he stabs with crappy hands like a small pp we can probably c/c profitably.

Against loose PF/tighter shoving range we oviously can't bet/call, so again c/c seems best if we think he stabs.


Cliff notes:
If you think he's loose in calling PF and will stab if you check a halfway decent % of the time with crap hands, then c/c is probably best. If he's loose PF but won't stab alot bet/fold has some merit I think, although I was too lazy to work out FE and such. If he's tight PF because of your nitty image just c/f. Never bet/call.

I did his quickly and don't really want to get into it that much, but please point out any glaring mistakes. There might be a bunch I don't usually spend the time I should working with Pstove

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone like a range merging nth level CRAI?

[/ QUOTE ]

i thought of that. but i think he probably checks behind alot of mediocre made on the flop also like AQ and what not.

it's not bad if he'll call with his AK assuming that he has more outs then he has. or some weak pair that assumes we're doing it with AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really easy to imagine him shoving AK, but not calling with it.

In fact, I can't think of many hands that ever call here. Pretty sure he has some hands he'll shove, and some that he'll fold, and nothing in between. Which makes bet/folding really [censored] terrible.

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
We're not folding a Q, KK, AA or TT so why is fe relevant?


[/ QUOTE ]
Because getting him to fold a worse hand is better than we folding the best hand. And he might very well have a bunch of outs.

[ QUOTE ]
is true, we should c/c, c/c then right? Cause the thinking player, knowing that we aren't willing to felt should check behind all monsters/value hands on the turn and bet all bluffs?

[/ QUOTE ]
On this type of board checking behind even if he suspect we'll fold is bad.

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

someone put a zero on the end of the numbers and post it in high stakes...

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
someone put a zero on the end of the numbers and post it in high stakes...

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, not a bad idea

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone like a range merging nth level CRAI?

[/ QUOTE ]

i thought of that. but i think he probably checks behind alot of mediocre made on the flop also like AQ and what not.

it's not bad if he'll call with his AK assuming that he has more outs then he has. or some weak pair that assumes we're doing it with AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really easy to imagine him shoving AK, but not calling with it.

In fact, I can't think of many hands that ever call here. Pretty sure he has some hands he'll shove, and some that he'll fold, and nothing in between. Which makes bet/folding really [censored] terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

pretty much exactly my thoughts

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

alright, so were not really sold on any flop line. I went with check/call pretty much b/c I only see worse hands folding or me getting shoved on getting it in as a slight favorite or a fairly bad dog, neither really help the situation much.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $201
Hero (BB): $256.15
UTG: $189
CO: $248.35
BTN: $203

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $8</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $27</font>, CO calls $19

Flop: ($55) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $38</font>, Hero calls $38

Turn: ($131) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)

what now?

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

Neat hand.

I like check calling the flop some percentage of the time, but I probably would bet fold the flop the majority of the time.

I think this potsize makes playing turn kind of awkward. Leading turns your hand face up, but its probably the best way to get all the money in. There are a bunch of hands drawing to boats and two flush draws in his range bc of the flop check so I'd lead for like $50, or maybe $45. For value and to try and induce a shove.

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

bet $50.

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
alright, so were not really sold on any flop line. I went with check/call pretty much b/c I only see worse hands folding or me getting shoved on getting it in as a slight favorite or a fairly bad dog, neither really help the situation much.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $201
Hero (BB): $256.15
UTG: $189
CO: $248.35
BTN: $203

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $8</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $27</font>, CO calls $19

Flop: ($55) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $38</font>, Hero calls $38

Turn: ($131) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)

what now?

[/ QUOTE ]

do a little dance and bet 70

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

I think this is a check. I believe villian will play perfectly if you wake up and bet this turn. By checking, he can continue a semi-bluff on a big time scare card and obv do so with his air as well (altho i think he has air rarely), and you can shove over the top.

If he's got a queen, which is certainly a possiblity, then he will most likely check this turn. Still, you're not getting two streets of value so checking the turn lets you get some value on the river. The downside to this is that it also gives him a free card if he's on the draw and doesn't want to take another stab. however, I think your hand becomes pretty transparent here if you bet this turn, if I were villian I believe that i would play quite well against this particular line in a reraised pot.

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

Dude, what?

Bet to charge about a million draws, including sets filling up. Worse hands will call.

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

i wasnt sure wtf to do on the flop but the turn is the easiest bet ever. 80ish is good

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
bet $50.

[/ QUOTE ]
We shouldn't give him like 4:1 direct, 9:1 implied on this board. At least 80 imo.

I realise you're trying to induce but I don't like it on this board and I don't think it will work often enough.

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

O this is against me. Hehe..

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

I think the real question in this hand is the river. I called the turn, another 9 hit the river, and you shoved. I think this is a fairly easy c/f against not just me, but anybody with a brain really. What do you expect to get value from? I dunno, with my hand the turn was exactly a call, but I did put you squarely on JJ without much thought. I/anybody could have soo many boats though on that river, given my line. Like I think it's fair to say I could have every possibly boat combo on that river. A shove gets value from one hand (exactly my hand, like exactly) if the villain is dumb (but I ain't dumb yo).

<font color="white">I had 76cc if you haven't guessed already.</font>

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bet $50.

[/ QUOTE ]
We shouldn't give him like 4:1 direct, 9:1 implied on this board. At least 80 imo.

I realise you're trying to induce but I don't like it on this board and I don't think it will work often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

* Best hand of the week.

Well I'm trying to maximize value against Villain's entire range (which includes inducing bluffs), but I didn't actually play with any numbers, I was just thinking off the top of my head.


POT SIZE = $131
EFFECTIVE STACKS = $183

VILLAIN'S RANGE: This is obviously the hardest part and I actually hardly play, so you're guess of Villain's range is much better than mine. I wish I knew if Villain ever 4-bets preflop...but whatever.

AA= 6 ways
KK= 4 ways (cause he 4-bets it some preflop?)
QQ= 3 ways
JJ= 1 ways
TT= 3 ways
99= 2 ways (cause he folds preflop and checks flop?)

AcKc= 1 way
AK (no club) = 10(cause he 4-bets it some preflop?)

Now the question of how each acts to a bet?

VILLAINS ACTION
AA=
Bet of $50: Folds 100%, Bluffs 0% (ever bluff?)
Bet of $80: Folds 100%, Bluffs 0%

KK
Bet of $50: Folds 95%, Bluffs 5% (bluff too high?)
Bet of $50: Folds 100%, Bluffs 0%

QQ
Bet of $50: Folds 0%, Raises 50% Calls 50% (?)
Bet of $80: Folds 0%, Raises 0%, Calls 100% (?)

JJ
Bet of $50: Folds 0%, Raises 90%, Calls 10%
Bet of $90: Folds 0%, Raises 100%

TT
Bet of $50: Folds 00%, Raises 25%, Calls 75% (?)
Bet of $80: Folds 10%, Raises 25%, Calls 65% (?)

99
Bet of $50: Folds 0%, Raises 25%, Calls 75% (?)
Bet of $80: Folds 20%, Raises 20%, Calls 60% (?)

A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Bet of $50: Folds 0%, Raises 10%, Calls 90% (?)
Bet of $80: Folds 100% (?)

AxKx
Bet of $50: Folds 95%, Raises 5% (?)
Bet of $80: Folds 100%

Feel free to change any of my numbers, with what you want in bold and I'll do an EV calc.

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

Doesn't check-calling on the flop just scream JJ ??? A reraise preflop followed by being scared by an overcard on the flop?

I like Nick Royale's analysis - If we bet the flop we disguise our hand as well as getting some FE.

Now, let's say the turn blanks and you bet flop and were called. What's your action ?

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think the real question in this hand is the river. I called the turn, another 9 hit the river, and you shoved. I think this is a fairly easy c/f against not just me, but anybody with a brain really. What do you expect to get value from?

[/ QUOTE ]So why did you call then?

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

Um I didn't...

Re: need a plan vs a 2+2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bet $50.

[/ QUOTE ]
We shouldn't give him like 4:1 direct, 9:1 implied on this board. At least 80 imo.

I realise you're trying to induce but I don't like it on this board and I don't think it will work often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

forgot to add, why would we ever pay the villain off on the river when he obviously boats up?

i think hero can safely check-fold to a river push when the board pairs, right?