Dancing With the Stars 5
 

Any early opinions on the cast. I've been able to make decent money the past 3 series on the series and am leaning towards Helio Castroneves for this season. He's currently 17/2 on bodog but I see him as the favorite for a few reasons.
1. He's a male athlete. Males have won 3 in a row and male athlete's the last 2.
2. He's partnered with Julianne (the blonde who won with Apolo) Julianne is super hot and is someone who gets votes on her own. Apolo hand picked Helio and he got placed with his partner.
3. His partner has said he's already ahead of Apolo at this stage last year and he should own on Latin style dances being Brazilian.
4. Looking at his ABC message board there are alot of positive posts from fans already. Compare his MB to some others who literally have 3-4 posts in them.

I'm going to put my 50 down on Helio and see how the season goes maybe I'll place another bet later, who does anyone else like?

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

I like your analysis. I'm gonna give this one a try at 8/1.

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

I got Maywesther on bodog to win it. 2/1

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

Good start to the show this week. Drew co-hosting is a lot better than the annoying Samantha.

Matchbook opened up a market for DWTS under their Current Events section. You can bet on who will win, and also on who will get eliminated this week. Already lots of offers there, anyone interested should check it out and make offers.

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

After 1 week, it looks like you did a great job, darko. Helio is now the favorite on Bodog at 11/4.

They're still offering Helio vs. Mayweather at -120 on both sides. Helio looks like great value there, as Mayweather was not nearly as strong as most thought he would be.

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

thanks man glad to help. Before even seeing the lines I said to myself that Helio is likely the betting favorite then when I saw the odds on bodog I jumped on it. I really don't see anyone else winning it but I think I'm going to hedge my bet with Sabrina in a week or two just to be safe. She's going to put up the highest scores week after week and I think her fan base is pretty large with the disney channel (look how far they carried Hannah Montana's dad)

I'm also looking at wayne newton -300 vs. mark cuban +200 on bodog. With those odds Cuban might be worth a shot. Wayne is garbage but likely has a decent fan base with Cheryl, but I think Cuban's got a fan base too and will outscore him. It's a toss up but with +200 odds that makes it worth a shot.

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

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I think her fan base is pretty large with the disney channel (look how far they carried Hannah Montana's dad)

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The fan base helped, but it was Billy Ray's effortless grace that carried him along. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

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I'm also looking at wayne newton -300 vs. mark cuban +200 on bodog. With those odds Cuban might be worth a shot. Wayne is garbage but likely has a decent fan base with Cheryl, but I think Cuban's got a fan base too and will outscore him. It's a toss up but with +200 odds that makes it worth a shot.

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Dang it! Can't believe I forgot to have a pop at this prop. Aftereventing it shows on Bodog's odds page that Mark Cuban hit +220 to outlast Wayne Newton who was a surprising -340 favourite! [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

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They're still offering Helio vs. Mayweather at -120 on both sides. Helio looks like great value there, as Mayweather was not nearly as strong as most thought he would be.

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Just got paid out on this one. Thanks!

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

Yeah 2-for-2. Very nice stuff.

The way this it's been going so far it's been all Sabrina (they're priming her up something rotten as though she will be the winner elect come what may) with maybe Cameron as her nearest challenger.

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Ugh. Looks absolutely rigged for Sabrina Bryan at the moment with a few tweaks just to make it not so obvious. Helio's in danger of being eliminated despite Marie and Mark being ahead of him. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Week 5 - Judges' Scores:

29 -- Mel & Maks
28 -- Sabrina & Mark
26 -- Jane & Tony, Cameron & Edyta
25 -- Jennie & Derek
23 -- Helio & Julianne
21 -- Marie & Jonathan, Mark & Kym

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

I'm going to put my perfect season on the line. Marie Osmond to outlast Jane Seymour at +120. I bet the underdogs twice before and they both won so why not? Helio over Floyd at +150 and Cuban over Wayne at +200.

I wasn't going to touch this line but last week's results tempted me too much. Marie scored the lowest score and wasn't even in the bottom 2, Jane scored very high and was in the bottom 2 next to only Cuban-who's gone. Jane has no fan base and I have no doubt she's running 7th out of the final 7 in voting. There is a chance of Jane getting a 28-30 but anything short of that she's gone.

As for Helio I don't think he's in danger at all. I even bet some more on him with sites that increased his odds after last week. You can get +280 on oddsmaker. Fan vote is half of the total and Helio murders Sabrina in that, all he has to do is stay close with the scores. Sure he had a bad week but I'm betting he bounces back.

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

FWIW, you can get Helio on The Greek for +300.

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

If you don't watch the show like me and you're looking for a low risk wager, you can put money on Helio to win on The Greek at +300 and hedge it with female to win at -145 on Bodog.

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

Whatever it is you're doing to come up with these conclusions darko, it's working...

Week 6 - Judges' Scores:

30 -- Mel & Maks
28 -- Helio & Julianne
27 -- Jennie & Derek
25 -- Sabrina & Mark, Cameron & Edyta
23 -- Marie & Jonathon
22 -- Jane & Tony

Coinflip as to who goes tomorrow between Jane and Marie but one would favour Jane getting the boot (probably, one can't imagine that ABC will dismiss their two horses of Cameron and Sabrina at this stage).

Mark Cuban thinks Cameron's going to win. I think he's thinking of the ABC angle.

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

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Coinflip as to who goes tomorrow between Jane and Marie but one would favour Jane getting the boot

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Could have said the same thing last week, but it was quite the shocker.

If you or anyone wants to back up their opinions, Matchbook has odds up on both who will win and who will get eliminated this week.

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

Yeah, yeah I got it wrong. Few people would have said Sabrina was going to be eliminated and for money.

I generally don't follow the odds on Matchbook but was there any odds movement last week on Sabrina being eliminated?

Just looking at the odds on who'll be eliminated this week and they're kinda stingy:

Will Helio be eliminated? Yes +1000, No n/a
Will Cameron be eliminated? Yes n/a, No -800
Will Marie be eliminated? Yes +200, No n/a
Will Jane be eliminated? Yes n/a, No -280
Will Melanie be eliminated? Yes n/a, No -800
Will Jennie be eliminated? Yes +400, No -1000

Ugh. I have no interest in betting or setting the odds at Matchbook even if the lines right now are goading me into thinking Jane's being set up to be eliminated this week.

You'd have to be a fan, an insider or someone who hates money to bet money on the eliminations.

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

Oh, for sure. Wasn't ragging on you about last week at all. No one serious anywhere was predicting Sabrina to go last week, including myself. Have had my share of hits and misses this season also.

But I disagree about Matchbook and the eliminations. There is money to be made there, it's just not a big market until show-day.

Those odds are simply a couple people's offers. By show-time Mon and Tues, there should be a lot more offers and better odds.

And if people think that Marie and Jane are a near coinflip to go, then they would be near +/-100 to go. You can get Marie for +200. That's a lot of room for edge/error already. Taking a near 50% prop (if that's your estimate) and getting an edge all the way down to 33%, a 17% margin for error.

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Man I wish I could play at matchbook, I mop up on any reality shows. I refuse to deposit into an online sportsbook though, anyone know how I can get a couple of bucks on there maybe with a promo code or anything?

Just wanted to weigh in on the Sabrina elimination. I actually wasn't shocked she went. It was no secret her scores were carrying her, so scoring a 25 was trouble. I thought for sure the bottom 2 would have been Jane and Sabrina with Jane being the boot though. Oh well, the old food poisoning trick won't save the old bag this week hopefully- because I didn't envision my money being tied up for 2 weeks.

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lol...Bodog has Helio to win at +100 and male to win at +130.

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Word is that Helio's phone line didn't work for a good 10-15 minutes last night. Since voting is only open for what 30-60 minutes? that can't be good. This Jane lady is pretty good, she fakes food poisioning one week to take out Sabrina, now she's jamming phone lines in an attempt to take out Helio, what's next taking a lead pipe to Mel's knee [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I don't watch on Monday's so I'm not sure how the scores were but Jane is bottom 2 this week, who joins her is a ? between Cameron, Mel, and hate to say it Helio.

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Lol at the Jane comments, funny stuff. Where is your "word" from? There's reports of non-functioning phone lines every week, this year more than usual. Different parts of the country experience different difficulties, not sure what the deal is. There's less volume than AI, so it shouldn't be local exchange volume.

Scores were:
Mel 54
Jennie 53
Helio 52
Marie 52
Cam 51
Jane 50

Matchbook oddsmakers favor Jane going home, but there's tons of value if you think anyone else is going.

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

Nice work Darko 3 for 3! Any other suggestions? Here is a cross post taht I made in teh sports betting chatter thread:

There is a really tiny arb available for Dancing with teh Stars betting:

Males wins Bodog +145
Melanie wins Matchbook +350
Maria wins Bodog +500
Jennie wins Bodog +550

The corresponding probabilities add up to less than 1 meaning it is arbable, but I am not sure how to calculate the correct proportion to bet on each. And since the bodog bets are capped at 50$ I bet it is worth less than a dollar. But generally does anyone have a link to an arb calculator for more than two bets?

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

http://www.scalpulator.com/

Scalpulator Results:

Bet 1: $50.00 @ +145
Bet 2: $27.22 @ +350
Bet 3: $20.42 @ +500
Bet 4: $18.85 @ +550

Total Investment: $116.49

Total Return: $122.50

Total Profit: $6.01

ROI: 5.16%

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

yeah thanks, glad to help some people out. I'm pretty happy with this season so far my horse is still in at 17/2 and now he's the favorite with 5 left.

If you want to take that arb. it seems alright, 5% ROI and your money is only held for under 3 weeks isn't too bad. I used to be all about arbs, but lately I've been locking in on a pick and picking a hedge a little later. Apolo Ohno and Jordin Sparks were my last two horses, not to shabby.

The price for male on bodog seems pretty good to me. you get the favorite in Helio and Cameron. if for some reason Helio did get eliminated before the finale Cameron would be a nice darkhorse, being the only good looking man left vs. 2 females in a show where 80% of the voting is done by women. I highly doubt Helio and Cameron would be the next two eliminations leaving the bet with no one in the finale.

Should be an interesting next two weeks. I know I haven't bothered to vote yet b/c I felt like Helio would slide through for a while, but now is time to start. I'm a member of a couple sports boards so I'm going to ask everyone on them to vote for the last athlete on the show to win it. If anyone on here has bet on Helio please do the same.

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

Tonight's elimination odds over at Matchbook:

Will Helio be eliminated? Yes +3000, No n/a
Will Marie be eliminated? Yes +175, No n/a
Will Melanie be eliminated? Yes +700, No -980
Will Jennie be eliminated? Yes n/a, No -180

Hmmm. I don't know why I was so pent up about the producers rooting for Sabrina as I should have figured out that the producers were actually rooting for (mostly) Melanie or any other woman to win.

It's almost a politically correct final if you will.

If Melanie wins it probably cancels out Laila Ali's failings towards the end last year. If Helio wins, it probably rubs out Mario Lopez being robbed by Jerry Rice.

If Jennie or Marie somehow win, I suppose fans will get another chance to bitch like they did when it was highly disputed that Kelly Monaco robbed John O'Hurley! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

They've all been pretty good but their extra-curricular activities seem either unfortunate (Marie's personal life) or merely attention-grabbing (Jennie going to Disney World for some event/PR stunt).

...with the scores Helio and Melanie 60, Jennie 58 and Marie 56 it's almost too close to call what with the screwy voting system. Any of them could be eliminated tonight but you'd have to favour one of Jennie or Marie going...the oddsmakers taking a small risk that Jennie will be the one given the push tonight.

Has anyone been eliminated when having a perfect score!? [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

OT: Well done on the Helio to be the 'last man standing' prop.

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

Just curious what would anyone else do if they were me? Basically I've already won $385 on Helio being last man and vs. bets, I've lost $20 on Sabrina thinking she'd be a good hedge for Helio, so I'm up $365.

My only open bet is Helio to win, $50 to win $425. My gut is telling me that Helio will indeed be the winner, he's peaking at the right time- a perfect 60/60 last week, he's had a good fan base from the begining, and from what I can tell he's getting alot of credit for being the only finalist who isn't an entertainer plus he's the only male to vote for and 80% of voters are women. BUT Marie's fan base is just so big, I worry it could carry her to the win.

so what to do basically?
1. Trust my gut and let it ride with Helio.
2. Hedge some with female at -135 on bodog- if so how much would be recommended?
3. Choose either Mel or Marie as the hedge, putting less at risk. will bodog put the lines back up between monday and tuesday's shows or likely not? because it would be easier to pick one over the other after seeing the scores.

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

One's assuming Helio's been the long-time favourite purely on the basis that he's the one who's reported to be getting the most phone votes right?

I can understand the danger and fear of Marie Osmond causing a huge upset if she's come this far than her fans must be pretty zealous...as must Melanie's fans be.

Bet365's odds ~

Outright: Helio 4/6, Melanie 6/4 and Marie 4/1

Bodog's odds ~

Outright: Helio 10/11, Melanie 3/2 and Marie 2/1
Gender: Male -110, Female -130

The Greek's odds ~

Outright: Helio +100, Melanie +125 and Marie +350

Matchbook's odds ~

Will Helio win? Yes n/a, No -138
Will Marie win? Yes +400, No -860
Will Melanie win? Yes n/a, No -330

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If I didn't know any better I think the public think Mel's been the best dancer, Helio's been the best male dancer but Marie has a helluva strong fanbase. It's an absolute pain to try and work out.

The best possible arb is over at Bet365 if you're wanting to cover both Melanie and Marie though so you might want to try that.

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

As an aside, it looks like the Greek has good value on Helio at +100 given the other sites all have negative odds. Does he have a >50% chance of winning?

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

Assuming that Helio has been the long-time fav the whole way is simply due to people's capping. He has not been reported to be getting the most phone votes. (Unless you have other info, if so, link please?)

I would guess that he is the fav at the books simply because he looked good early in the season. The books do not cap fanbases much. The volume bet on this is too small for them to care much, hence oftentimes soft lines with low limits. They mainly go by judges' scores and whether they are better/worse dancers.

So Helio and Sabrina were the favs at the start of the season, understandably. When Sabrina started pulling away scoring-wise, she became the fav, and Helio was getting longer +odds. When Sabrina was surprise-booted, Helio was the only remaining fav, so his odds got real short.

Now that Mel's been getting better and better scores, her status has improved a lot also. If there were no prior history, the books would probably have Mel a very slight fav to Helio, and Marie a total dog.

That being said, I favor Helio to win but am wary of Marie's fanbase. If there were a 2-way finale between them, Helio would win. As is, with a 3-way finale, Marie's fanbase may still be strong enough, with other voters split between the two best dancers. Bets on Helio at +odds and Marie at long +odds are still decent imo.

Darko, your question is a basic issue of hedging and how much the money means to you/your bankroll. If it's not big deal, and you simply want EV, then just let it ride or hedge with Marie at long +odds. If you would be upset at losing the $50 on Helio, then hedge with the Bodog female at -130, although this is -EV imo. And at current odds, betting separately on Marie and Mel as a combined hedge sucks.

If it were me in your shoes, I'd make a small wager on Marie so that you win money whether Helio or Marie wins, regardless. At the amounts you listed, you can make it so that you have bet $145 total to win $330 equally whether Helio or Marie wins, or you can bet less so that you win more on Helio and less on Marie. It simply depends on how high you think Marie's chances of winning are, and also if you are willing to risk more money, even though Mel has a shot at winning and whether you are concerned about that. For me, I will win decent money whether either Helio or Marie wins, and will lose if Mel wins.

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Thanks for the tips, I'm still undecided. Those odds at bet365 look really nice stereoman, but I'm really limited to bodog. I can't deposit into a sportsbook so I can only play if I get free money or in bodog's case playing poker freerolls. With that being the case I'm always playing with house money which is good, but I also built my bankroll literally $1 at a time, and if I ever lost it all its basically game over with my sportsbetting. So for that reason I do hedge and find arbs. maybe even more than necessary.

It obviously wouldn't kill me if I let it ride and one of the females won because I'd still be up $315 for the season, keeping in mind I only would have risked $270, any season over 100% return I consider ok. If he won then I'm talking almost 300% return which is what I consider a great season, and along the lines of what I did for America's got talent, American Idol, and last years DWTS.

If I do chicken out and decide on a hedge I like your idea of the Marie hedge llabb. I'm back and forth with her chances of winning, with the fan base she has. Can anyone think of a reality show in which someone like her has actually won though? Sanjaya made it like 3 weeks further than he should have but he wasn't a threat to win though, Kendra Wilkinson made it all the way to the final 2 in mtv's rap challenge but in the end she didn't win, people like Master P. have been carried by fan vote in DTWS but a good dancer has always won.

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

Hmmm. The odds at Matchbook:

Will Helio win? Yes -130, No -150
Will Marie win? Yes +1200, No n/a
Will Melanie win? Yes -760, No -138

Mel looks ominous to win but how crazy will Marie's fans attack the phonelines!?

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm. The odds at Matchbook:

Will Helio win? Yes -130, No -150
Will Marie win? Yes +1200, No n/a
Will Melanie win? Yes -760, No -138

Mel looks ominous to win but how crazy will Marie's fans attack the phonelines!?

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I'm assuming those odds went up after the show ended tonight because Marie was awful. I wouldn't bet on Marie at any odds, she really did have a chance if she posted similar scores to the other two but after that showing forget it. Thank god I didn't bite on betting anything on Marie before the show.

It's going to be very close between Helio and Mel. the -760 odds on Mel winning are crazy though, if her no odds went anywhere close to that, I'd say there is big value. I'm just glad I got Helio when I did.

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

Yeah, they're the odds as they are now (any bookie would surely be more than a little foolhardy to issue odds so quickly after the first show).

Before they closed, Bodog saw some movement with Mel 7/5, Helio 5/6 and Marie 9/5.

I'm rooting for a Helio win as much as you are, darko.

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I just found out that voting online is open until noon eastern tomorrow. I guess since its the finale they leave voting open for 16 hours like that.

This is really a neck-and-neck drag race if you will between Helio and Mel, so if anyone pulling for Helio or wanting to help some of us out who are betting on him head over to abc.com and create some accounts. you get 5 votes per account so I figure if I can create 20 before I go to bed thats 100 votes which could go a long way.

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Good call on Helio early on.

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100% record throughout. You can't get better than that. Big props to darko. </applause>

Re: Dancing With the Stars 5
 

Victory! I'm not going to lie though I was sweating that last 5 minutes out. Mostly because Mel had a higher score and people on matchbook seemed to make her the favorite either because of the scores or some online voting stuff that favored Mel. In the end my horse came through, I don't think he was quite as good as Apolo was with Julianne but Helio did a great job.

All in all great season betting wise, I hope I convinced some of you to bet on Helio before the season started like I did. If so, your welcome.

Looking forward to the board for American Idol in Jan. I understand that AI is the biggest event for entertainment betting. I was on Jordin Sparks from day 1 last year so I'll see if I can do it again. I'd really like to bet AI on matchbook this year so hopefully they run a free money promo code or something by then, if they do someone please give me a heads up because I know I can't deposit there.

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julianne is so hot ... didnt matter who her partner was