Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments
 

If you read that last line of my post, you'll know I am wary of being results oriented.

If I knew how to run fancy Pokerstove analyses I would quote numbers to you, but without them I can only give the highly technical answer that I have the "feeling" that the river push is closer than we think. I agree about the bet of 600 on the river; you have to bet enough to prove to them that you are comitted to the hand. In most cases, it will be a push. Or you check. I don't think it is "wrong" to check here; after all we are going to find out who won and we are still in the tourney if we lost the hand. But some moves just scream donk; min c/r, then check(?!!) the turn? What? If Daniel Negreanu did that to us, we'd be like, aww crap, what is going on?? Versus an unknown player at the beginning of a tourney, is it all that improbable that this isn't classic donkey? I think the times you bust out from going all-in based on a read like this will not be -EV. The key words are "based on a read." No one reads anyone else right 100% of the time, but the best players get the reads right often enough.

I'll stop rambling now.

-Gross

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments
 

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I'd bet 700. Our hand is still very vulnerable, and we can't make it cheap to see the river. I don't like a bigger bet of say, 1000, because that just makes river play awkward and commits us a little more than I would like.

Note that if we bet 700 on the turn and our opponent calls, the pot on the river will be 2190, we will have 2160 behind. If instead we bet 1,000 and the opponent calls, there wil be 2790 in the pot, and we will have 1860 behind. If a scary card comes, say the ten of hearts, and our opponent sets us in on the river, our pot odds will make this a tough hand to get away from. However, if we only bet 700 on the turn, we can easily fold to a pot sized all-in on the river if we think he got there. It's not a huge difference, but you should always be aware of how big the pot size and stack sizes will be on future streets. If you are the one betting, you are in control of these numbers.


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I don't know what I was smoking when I came up with these obviously wrong numbers.
If we bet 700, our stack will be 1460, and there will be 2170 in the pot. I'd probably bet around 650 making our effective stack 1510 and having 2070 in the pot, making a 3/4 bet on the river all-in.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments
 

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If Villian had turned over the 6/8 or two hearts on the river, we'd be condemning Hero for his terrible play on the river. I think we're being a bit too results-oriented here.

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The results are exactly in line with what they should be. All of the evidence points to a one-pair hand after the turn action. Of course, we were narrowing down his range of hands on every street, but by the end of the turn, you should have a very good feel for where he is. YOU are being "results-oriented" when you look at the responses and say, "2 of the 3 panelists check. Most of the other posters check. 2 out of 3 panelists CAN'T be wrong!"

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments
 

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Well done by all.

Thanks Lloyd, Jason, Justin, and Shane.

Not getting full value for my hands at the river is a big leak for me.


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Agreed, the first step in becoming a winning MTT player is to be able to make the tough calls. Understanding when others will do the same, and making it profitable is a much tougher step to take. We all know how to push our edges PF and on the flop, but this is a great example of when there are chips to be had, and I for one would have missed them.

This river is very interesting from a psychological perspective. We have played a tricky hand, things got a little dicey, and feel good to win a nice pot. It is SO easy to want to shut down there. It is a tough hurdle to clear to want to take further risk, when we already have a perceived win in the bank. It feels very different from early street risks, b/c the alternative in those cases is to fold (and lose any chips we have put in).

It has really shown me a lot, very good hand choice Lloyd

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments
 

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I would have never bet that river and I need to take a long deep look at myself for that. Great hand, great analysis. Thanks guys.

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Ditto.

Thanks for the great hand and fantastic analysis.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments
 

Awesome, best of the series so far. i still can't decide about the river bet, but i agree w/ all the info we have so far, i can't imagine villain has us beat here nearly ever, so i guess a bet must be good.

Jason, you said his timing wasn't strong.. what'd you mean by that?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments
 

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anyone want to elaborate?

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Small flop CR = I am bluffing or have a big hand (for this board), followed by:
Turn check/call = I am a jackass and my hand tops out at one pair

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i guess i wasn't clear. i was curious about this part:

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The villains timing was not strong, I remember, on the river.

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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments
 

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i guess i wasn't clear. i was curious about this part:

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The villains timing was not strong, I remember, on the river.

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Online timing tells do exist, are sometimes extremely useful, and every time I see a post say "pay no attention, it might as well be Internet lag" I laugh to myself.

That's all I'm gonna say about it, but most people who 4 table or less already know that and most people who 6+ table are not going to be able to follow the action well enough.

Things to Consider
 

I still stand by my decision to check on the river, here are a few reasons why.
1) I still don't expect TT to call a shove. Obviously, this player at this point in time did, but given the information I had, I'd expect TT to fold a significant majority of the time
2) TT is pretty high on the list of the range of hands we beat. Does he call with T9? A7? Probably not.
3) It's unlikely, but possible he was slowplaying a hand that had us beat and got scared when the heart fell.
4) He too is scared by the heart, and should be somewhat less likely to call a river bet with the heart there.
5) The truth is that most players don't want to put there entire stack in during level 1 in this tourney with one pair, regardless of the action up to the river.
6) Let's say we only get a call 10% of the time when we are ahead. How often do we have to be ahead for a shove to then be correct? Let's round the numbers and make the river shove pot sized. We then have to be ahead 91% for it to be +cev. Then factor in tournament survival concepts, and the number is > 91% (the facts that the blind levels are 30 minutes, the payout is flat, and Jason is an expert player only makes this number even bigger).
7) Our opponent could have made two pair on the river and been afraid to bet, possibly because of the flush card, or perhaps because he didn't think nines over fours was worth value betting.
8) This is kind of restating #6, but the value of chips we lose when we are wrong is far greater than the value of the chips we win when we are right.

These are just some random thoughts I had about the hand that I wanted to make sure everyone was considering. I imagine some people haven't thought of many of these things yet in regards to thsi hand.

Push on riv
 

Why I agree with the push on river decision:
1) The opponents line on this board where numerous cards can kill his action is almost never a hand better than an overpair, all better hands reraise to try to get money in earlier.
2) A push is less suspicious then a bet like 750-650 in this spot because a person might be trying to bluff the heart on the river and percieved weakness from the opponent. The player with TT KNOWS he played the hand weak, and is more likely to look you up with a similar holding.