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-   -   *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD *** (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=555326)

Performify 11-27-2007 02:36 AM

*** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
DET @ MIN
HOU @ TEN
SF @ CAR
JAC @ IND
SD @ KC
NYJ @ MIA
BUF @ WAS
SEA @ PHI
ATL @ STL

rsigley 11-27-2007 03:06 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
legendz has jets +7

pinnacle has jets +1

is it ethical to bet +7 on legendz when its obviously an error?

they also have pats +7

guess all bets will be cancelled

kyro 11-27-2007 03:11 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
There is no possible way you get paid for either of those bets.

Disclaimer: I actually have no idea if you would, I'm just spouting random crap. I'd be surprised if they honored your bet, especially the Pats one.

Rustjive 11-27-2007 03:14 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
From what I've heard it's pointless to bet on obviously wrong numbers. The bet will be voided, and not only that, you might even get flagged for being someone who requires extra supervision, you know, for being someone who bets on rogue/wrong lines and for being a sharp.

kyro 11-27-2007 11:16 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
Kansas City ML (+185)
Risk 0.5u to win .925u

Looking to get a unit down at bodog for +6 as well, but haven't done so yet. Waiting to see if they ever open a moneyline up for the game. 6 points is just way too many points to give to a team that has a solid defense and historically plays well at home (although not so much this year).

NajdorfDefense 11-28-2007 01:09 AM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
Surprised Sea on road is only +3. This is a MUST-win game for PHL as 5-7 with a trip to Dallas = home in January.

And let's face it, Sea is not that good on the road, while PHL is finally rounding into shape after a sluggish start. PHL has tiebreaker on Det and split w/Was so can get a playoff berth fairly easily if the beat who they should beat.

I'm not saying the line should be 6-7, just that only 3 is not enough to take a road dog here, esp the 'Hawks.

kyro 11-28-2007 01:19 AM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
One book I have is at +3.5

Seattle is a better team than Philly, and Philly has actually played worse of late than the beginning of the year according to DVOA. (Weighted DVOA < Total DVOA).

I haven't made the decision yet, but I may take Seattle if it stays at 3.5. I agree that Seattle isn't the same team on the road as it is at home, and that's the only thing keeping me from betting on it right now.

NajdorfDefense 11-28-2007 01:30 AM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
SEA is not a better team than PHL. PHL Def DVOA is low when Sheppard and Dawkins and Considine and others were all out hurt early in the season, and Gaither/Gocong were learning new positions. Now they are all back and healthy but Considine.

The 23-pt gap in ST-DVOA is overstating the difference in these teams.

PHL has beaten 3 5+ win teams [and ST collapse v GB and you saw NWE] while SEA has only 2, both at home and 2 of their wins v STL and 2 v SFO. They haven't beaten a winning team since...Week 1.

Games w/Dawkins healthy.
GB - no TDs
Miami - no TDs
NWE -3 Off TDs, Brady had one.
Was - 1 td final 47 mins.

Sea has a 2-game lead, PHL is win or out.

kyro 11-28-2007 01:35 AM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
Very solid analysis. Thanks.

LogistX 11-28-2007 01:26 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
Is anyone buying into the Albert Haynesworth is the Bob Sanders of last year bit? With Tennessee looking as bad as they have been without him, I'm wondering if there's much value in following his status.


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