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maletaja 11-17-2007 08:57 PM

Is my calc OK?
 
I play lots of MTT with low M i did some push calc.
My stack is 10000(blinds 800-400,no antes)
I am in CT pos in KQ.So 3 random hand after me.
Question is push or fold?
Accoridbg to pokerstove random hand that has 99+AJ+,is apr 4-5%.So in total there is 15% change that smb calls my shove with hand.

I got cEV +576.As a result of this it is quite strong action move.Is it correct?
Or is it CEV more higher when i do open raise for example 2000 and fold after reraise?

sixhigh 11-17-2007 10:21 PM

Re: Is my calc OK?
 
Difficult to figure what you mean...

If i get it correct your in the CO with KQo, it's folded to you and you assume the players behind you will call your shove only with 99+, AJ+ and everyone has you covered. In this case you will get called approx. 15% of the time ( 1-(1-5.4%)^3) (ignoring the cases where two or more people call your shove). Against this range you will have ~71% equity. So the EV for this move will be:
EV = 85% * (+1200) + 15% * (29% * (+10800) + 71%*(-10000)) = +425.

But I doubt 99+, AJ+ are realistic ranges. And whether raise/folding is better than shoving we'd need some more informations on the other players. How aggressive are they, i.e. how likely is it they resteal light if you open to 2,000? ...


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